Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[Belle]

15 minutes ago, commendable said:

Also, I predict ant-man will have a 150m Opening in china.

There's a small chance that will be it's final total but opening weekend? No. 

 

 

[The Mad Titan]

3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Wtf? Thats insane. Its gonna have an opening weekend 43% bigger than the entire total of the first part?

 

it’s gonna be lucky if it gets to the number in its entire run. What exactly makes u think it will do this?

It's not gonna do that much but I just wanna point out that Infinity War is about to make more OW than Ultron did total and 3x what the Avengers made total. 

So....

There's that. 

[ZeeSoh]

4 hours ago, The Mad Titan said:

It's not gonna do that much but I just wanna point out that Infinity War is about to make more OW than Ultron did total and 3x what the Avengers made total. 

So....

There's that. 

Just because one might do something like that does not make it likely that the others will do so too. 

 

The other poster says AM2 will do almost 50% more than AM1’s entire run. That would be like IW opening to 360m in its OW. There is no reason for AM2 to grow a huge amount from AM1. Its not like AM1 did very low in China that there is room to grow significantly. And AM2 is not an event movie like IW that it will see such a boost

 

And dont count your chickens before they hatch or u will be disappointed regarding that IW number. That is a very high and optimistic number and I will be incredibly happy if it gets there but u are setting ur hopes too high. 

[The Mad Titan]

3 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Just because one might do something like that does not make it likely that the others will do so too. 

 

The other poster says AM2 will do almost 50% more than AM1’s entire run. That would be like IW opening to 360m in its OW. There is no reason for AM2 to grow a huge amount from AM1. Its not like AM1 did very low in China that there is room to grow significantly. And AM2 is not an event movie like IW that it will see such a boost

 

And dont count your chickens before they hatch or u will be disappointed regarding that IW number. That is a very high and optimistic number and I will be incredibly happy if it gets there but u are setting ur hopes too high. 

Yea the first thing I said is “it’s not gonna do that much”.

[ZeeSoh]

11 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

Yea the first thing I said is “it’s not gonna do that much”.

And then you tried to imply that just because one might do it that the other could also be possible. Thats absurd logic

[The Mad Titan]

Just now, ZeeSoh said:

And then you tried to imply that just because one might do it that the other could also be possible. Thats absurd logic

So it’s illogical for one to perform that way but not the other? Got it. 

[ZeeSoh]

31 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

So it’s illogical for one to perform that way but not the other? Got it. 

No where in my post did I imply mutual exclusivity. 

 

Anyways back from fantasyland to actual numbers now. It did about 1.35 in the last hour or so. That a good run rate to have in the afternoon. PS already up 6% at 1:30pm

[POTUS 2020]

43 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

No where in my post did I imply mutual exclusivity. 

 

Anyways back from fantasyland to actual numbers now. It did about 1.35 in the last hour or so. That a good run rate to have in the afternoon. PS already up 6% at 1:30pm

1.45m in the last hour. It should get to 129m+ today up 20%, continues to stay ahead of projections

MN should get to 29m. 8% higher than FF8

[fmpro]

1,5 mill/hour now. So 130 mill is the floor around midnight. Should do more when it increases tonight. 

Lets hope it does 135~ish and a 50% increase tomorrow for 200 mill PS

[POTUS 2020]

25 minutes ago, fmpro said:

1,5 mill/hour now. So 130 mill is the floor around midnight. Should do more when it increases tonight. 

Lets hope it does 135~ish and a 50% increase tomorrow for 200 mill PS

Holy shit your projection is higher than mine for a change

 

$ 260m is the target now.

 

Shows continue to stay 20% ahead of FF8 and PS still looking like 20%+ final.  I don't see why it doesn't do at least 27.5%(inc 7.5% XR) more than FF8 at this point for OD which equals $250m.  Add in a stronger expected Saturday and $260m+ is the case. 

I'll still keep the floor at $230m in case something slips. If I were to enter a pick in a contest I would go with $263m. 

 

Matching PTA saturation.  

FF8  $250m

TF4  $295m  was beginning of summer, busier Friday AM and Sunday PM

MH2 $320m  was CNY. not happening. just pointing it out .

Edited May 9, 2018 by POTUS

[peludo]

I guess all of you are considering the drop of Yuan of recent days. To make $260m means, today, about 1.66b Yuan.

[fmpro]

22 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Holy shit your projection is higher than mine for a change

 

$ 260m is the target now.

 

Shows continue to stay 20% ahead of FF8 and PS still looking like 20%+ final.  I don't see why it doesn't do at least 27.5%(inc 7.5% XR) more than FF8 at this point for OD which equals $250m.  Add in a stronger expected Saturday and $260m+ is the case. 

I'll still keep the floor at $230m in case something slips. If I were to enter a pick in a contest I would go with $263m. 

 

Matching PTA saturation.  

FF8  $250m

TF4  $295m  was beginning of summer, busier Friday AM and Sunday PM

MH2 $320m  was CNY. not happening. just pointing it out .

Yeah. I had a cup of POTUS and my nuts got a little bigger

 

134 mill by 1AM could be enough to make 200 mill PS possible and a 450-500 mill OD very likely. Saturday will no doubt be bigger but i think that sunday number will be the key to a possible OW WW record. 

Will the reviews be good enough? 8,9-9,1 on maoyan has to happen

[fmpro]

8 minutes ago, peludo said:

I guess all of you are considering the drop of Yuan of recent days. To make $260m means, today, about 1.66b Yuan.

Still possible but far from locked. 1,5-1,55 more likely IMO

[a2k]

at $250 ow needs only 1.60x to make $400 total. saying 'only' cause the rating is high. even with huge numbers SMH like legs at least should happen. i was thinking that AIW and JWFK will battle it out in China as the biggest import this year but AIW seems untouchable.

[POTUS 2020]

3 minutes ago, peludo said:

I guess all of you are considering the drop of Yuan of recent days. To make $260m means, today, about 1.66b Yuan.

i saw it drop to 6.36 on friday, but now close to 6.38. Ill update. Thats less than $1m on the weekend

[POTUS 2020]

13 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Yeah. I had a cup of POTUS and my nuts got a little bigger

 

134 mill by 1AM could be enough to make 200 mill PS possible and a 450-500 mill OD very likely. Saturday will no doubt be bigger but i think that sunday number will be the key to a possible OW WW record. 

Will the reviews be good enough? 8,9-9,1 on maoyan has to happen

based on the douban number, 9.5 should happen

[fabiopazzo2]

1 minute ago, POTUS said:

based on the douban number, 9.5 should happen

Wow 😯 

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, POTUS said:

based on the douban number, 9.5 should happen

!!!!!   

[fmpro]

18 minutes ago, POTUS said:

based on the douban number, 9.5 should happen

Thats the boldest prediction ever..... Like in ever

[POTUS 2020]

Mendelson- LOL - "easily throw in $200m total.  Throw in $95-155m OW".  He likes throwing softballs not hard balls

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/05/06/avengers-infinity-war-plunges-145m-in-weekend-two-but-is-still-a-huge-hit/#79c4612725d6

 

While Infinity War clearly doesn’t need a huge China payout to be a monster hit, it might get one anyway. The world’s largest moviegoing marketplace could easily throw in another $200 million, as Age of Ultron earned $240m in China while Civil War nabbed $190m. Deadpool 2 isn’t currently slated there (and, being a bawdy, R-rated action comedy, it may never play in China) while Solo isn’t going to be a problem. As we’ve seen, China loves Star Wars about as much as we love The Monkey King.

Speculation alert, but it is possible Avengers: Infinity War has a decent hold thanks to a lack of competition (and the fact that folks clearly like the movie) and ends up with around $535 million domestic and $810m overseas by next Sunday without China. Throw in a $95-$155m+ opening weekend from China, and Avengers: Infinity War could end its third weekend just over the $1.519 billion cume of The Avengers.