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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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2 hours ago, fmpro said:

1,5 mill/hour now. So 130 mill is the floor around midnight. Should do more when it increases tonight. 

Lets hope it does 135~ish and a 50% increase tomorrow for 200 mill PS

Its at 117 at 4:30pm with a 9.34% increase. Yesterday it had increased about 11% by 5:30pm and ended with about 20.5% total jump. 

 

So today is looking at about 20% jump again to about 128-129m. 135 is too optimistic unless a boatload of screens are added later in the evening. 

 

For comparision about 12k screens have been added today compared to a total of about 20k yesterday. So there is scope for acceleration tonight. 

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56 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Wow 😯 

 

54 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

!!!!!   

 

38 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Thats the boldest prediction ever..... Like in ever

Someone posted that douban was higher than a bunch of other movies including FF8

Why not?:hiphiphoray:

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34 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Mendelson- LOL - "easily throw in $200m total.  Throw in $95-155m OW".  He likes throwing softballs not hard balls

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/05/06/avengers-infinity-war-plunges-145m-in-weekend-two-but-is-still-a-huge-hit/#79c4612725d6

 

While Infinity War clearly doesn’t need a huge China payout to be a monster hit, it might get one anyway. The world’s largest moviegoing marketplace could easily throw in another $200 million, as Age of Ultron earned $240m in China while Civil War nabbed $190m. Deadpool 2 isn’t currently slated there (and, being a bawdy, R-rated action comedy, it may never play in China) while Solo isn’t going to be a problem. As we’ve seen, China loves Star Wars about as much as we love The Monkey King.

Speculation alert, but it is possible Avengers: Infinity War has a decent hold thanks to a lack of competition (and the fact that folks clearly like the movie) and ends up with around $535 million domestic and $810m overseas by next Sunday without China. Throw in a $95-$155m+ opening weekend from China, and Avengers: Infinity War could end its third weekend just over the $1.519 billion cume of The Avengers.

 

To think Scotty could lower his reputation any further :hahaha:

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4 minutes ago, justvision said:

OW total may not break NA OW record, but I think Sat gross may break all-time world wide record.

Officially TFA grossed $119m on OD Friday. Will be tough to beat that.

 

Unless you mean biggest Saturday, in which case I think that's practically locked to beat A:IW domestic Sat of ~$82m

 

If Saturday is greater than $119m though, that means OD is likely pushing $80-90m and Sunday could be almost $100m, putting a $300m OW in realm. That's a possible but incredibly difficult task.

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5 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Officially TFA grossed $119m on OD Friday. Will be tough to beat that.

 

Unless you mean biggest Saturday, in which case I think that's practically locked to beat A:IW domestic Sat of ~$82m

 

If Saturday is greater than $119m though, that means OD is likely pushing $80-90m and Sunday could be almost $100m, putting a $300m OW in realm. That's a possible but incredibly difficult task.

I mean excluding preview/early showings, so yes comparing Sat only (because AIW NA Sat was higher than any true Fridays).

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8 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Officially TFA grossed $119m on OD Friday. Will be tough to beat that.

 

Unless you mean biggest Saturday, in which case I think that's practically locked to beat A:IW domestic Sat of ~$82m

 

If Saturday is greater than $119m though, that means OD is likely pushing $80-90m and Sunday could be almost $100m, putting a $300m OW in realm. That's a possible but incredibly difficult task.

well, that OD doesn't count, $30m of that was made on Thursday before MN

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1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

To think Scotty could lower his reputation any further :hahaha:

Isn’t his 810 million os , without China, after next weekend stupid too ? The movie is at 738 million after Monday so it will only do...72 million os until Sunday ? What the hell ?

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On 4/12/2017 at 1:21 PM, Proxima Olive said:

[1 day+5 hours]
 

Fast and Furious 8

                   PS          showtimes
midnights -  24.18m -  12447 
OD  -          95.64m -  126608

Sat -           47.70m   -  98934

Sun -          18.12m  -  84777

Tot -         185.64m

 

[1 day+5 hours]
 

IW                 PS                   showtimes
midnights - 28.1m  +16%    -  13234   +6%
OD  -       120.2m  +26%   -  150662 +19%

Sat -          87.7m   +84%   - 120614 +22%

Sun -         38.6m  +113%  - 100570 +19%

Tot -        274.6m   +48% 

 

FF8 had 150k shows at 0000 OD, 163k eventual total

IW at 150k already, Its looking like 20% more shows will happen, 195k, necessary to break $250m.

That Saturday PS looking great for a decent bump

MN         70m/$11m

OD        500m/$78.4m

Sat       650m/$102m

Sun      450m/$70.6

Total  1670m/$262m

 

Tune in Thursday at 1am EDT/1pm Beijing to see if the hourly run rate is 4m for the PS bump to be 50%. Hope so or the wheels fall off :o

 

@ZeeSoh or @fmpro track the rate, I'll be asleep

Edited by POTUS
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IW with 13.7% jump at 8pm. Yesterday it was at 14.6% at 7:30pm and finished with a 20.6% jump. It looks like it will miss 20% today and end up up somewhere around 127m OD PS. 

 

2k less screens added today as compared to yesterday

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1 hour ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Isn’t his 810 million os , without China, after next weekend stupid too ? The movie is at 738 million after Monday so it will only do...72 million os until Sunday ? What the hell ?

This guy is a SW fan, and he can't even mask his bias against MCU.

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4 hours ago, POTUS said:

based on the douban number, 9.5 should happen

I’m not sure how the Maoyan or Douban ratings equate because RPO is a 9.1 / 8.9 but Rampage is a 9.0 / 6.7

 

So IW is currently 8.4 but when you look at the differences above idk what that means. 

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32 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

IW with 13.7% jump at 8pm. Yesterday it was at 14.6% at 7:30pm and finished with a 20.6% jump. It looks like it will miss 20% today and end up up somewhere around 127m OD PS. 

 

2k less screens added today as compared to yesterday

Good/normal increase ? 

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8 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Good/normal increase ? 

IW’s run has been so strong till now that even a less than expected increase is OK. But I was hoping/expecting for at least 25% rise today which wont happen. This means that reaching 200m Yuan in total OD presales is unlikely. 

 

Still cant say much as the difference is only of a few point. Will have to see how much it jumps tomorrow to get an idea

Edited by ZeeSoh
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1 hour ago, POTUS said:

what are you thinking for OW?

Firstly, any results over $160M OW is enough for me...

 

Then, here is my guess, average ticket price*number of audience per showtime*showtimes

 

Thu: 37*85*200K=63M
Fri: 38*63*180K=431M
Sat: 40*69*200K=552M
Sun: 38*50*195K=371M
Opening Weekend: 1417M = $222M

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15 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Firstly, any results over $160M OW is enough for me...

 

Then, here is my guess, average ticket price*number of audience per showtime*showtimes

 

Thu: 37*85*200K=63M
Fri: 38*63*180K=431M
Sat: 40*69*200K=552M
Sun: 38*50*195K=371M
Opening Weekend: 1417M = $222M

Thats around where I am at as well. I have it jumping less on saturday and dropping a little less on Sunday than you. 

 

Btw it should be 20k in Thursday not 200k. 

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