fmpro Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 5 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Its at 117 at 4:30pm with a 9.34% increase. Yesterday it had increased about 11% by 5:30pm and ended with about 20.5% total jump. So today is looking at about 20% jump again to about 128-129m. 135 is too optimistic unless a boatload of screens are added later in the evening. For comparision about 12k screens have been added today compared to a total of about 20k yesterday. So there is scope for acceleration tonight. Yeah. It wont pop today. So 129 mill around midnight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrstickball Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 How often does http://piaofang.maoyan.com/ update for pre-sales data? Currently sitting at 125m for OD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 Maoyan prediction: MN 65.1m OD 480.8m Sat 553.8M 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said: Maoyan prediction: MN 65.1m OD 480.8m Sat 553.8M On 8/5/2018 at 4:14 PM, Proxima Olive said: Maoyan OD prediction: IW 447.76M and Midnights updated to 73.85M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said: Maoyan prediction: MN 65.1m OD 480.8m Sat 553.8M Hmm they upped their OD prediction but reduced midnights. I guess their OW prediction would then be $233m USD assuming a 30% drop from that Saturday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mad Titan Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said: Maoyan prediction: MN 65.1m OD 480.8m Sat 553.8M So 8 million less MN than yesterday but over 30 million more OD? That’s a bit unusual yes? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 POTUS has been using JttW2, WC and FF8 as comps. Calculating the ratio of presales(24 hours out) vs OD: JttW2: 88.8 vs 356 = 4.01x WC: 64.8 vs 251.5 = 3.88x FF8: 106 vs 417 = 3.93x 3.90x from 128M presales equals 500M OD!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Proxima Olive said: Maoyan prediction: MN 65.1m OD 480.8m Sat 553.8M 56 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said: So 8 million less MN than yesterday but over 30 million more OD? That’s a bit unusual yes? Funny they dropped MN 8m and I bumped mine 8m from 63 to 71m after todays 20% increase They are in my ballpark for OD now Saturdays are stronger for SH's than FF8. Its going to be more than their 15%. FF8 was 17% and AI's PS are much stronger PS run rate picking up at the end to over 1.7m. It will clear 129m, maybe crawl to 130m at 2 or 3am $250m+ looking real good. We need 4m per hour tomorrow JttW2 WC FF8 IW PS 1am OD %gain MN %gain PS % gain MN %gain OD gain % gain MN %gain OD gain %gain Shows Sa 12.7 9.2 8.8 2.5 9.0 14.0% 18.5 3.1 26.5% 59.2 Su 16.9 32.7% 11.0 19.6% 12.0 37.1% 5.4 2.9 116.0% 10.1 13.2% 22.3 3.8 20.7% 63.0 Mo 19.4 14.9% 13.0 18.2% 14.8 23.3% 8.3 2.9 53.7% 11.0 8.5% 25.6 3.3 14.6% 66.0 Tu 22.1 14.2% 14.9 14.6% 17.0 14.9% 11.4 3.1 37.3% 11.9 8.2% 29.0 3.4 13.5% 69.7 We 25.5 15.3% 16.0 7.4% 20.0 17.6% 5.0 14.5 3.1 27.2% 12.8 7.6% 33.7 4.7 16.2% 72.8 Th 29.1 14.1% 18.1 13.1% 23.0 15.0% 6.4 28.0% 19.5 5.0 34.5% 15.0 17.2% 43.1 9.4 27.9% 79.7 Fr 33.3 14.4% 19.6 8.3% 27.0 17.4% 8.0 25.0% 24.6 5.1 26.2% 16.6 10.7% 50.4 7.3 16.9% 86.9 Sa 38.4 15.3% 21.8 11.2% 31.5 16.7% 9.8 22.5% 33.0 8.4 34.1% 17.9 7.8% 58.2 7.8 15.5% 93.1 Su 44.0 14.6% 22.5 3.2% 35.9 14.0% 11.3 15.3% 39.6 6.6 20.0% 19.3 7.8% 65.8 7.6 13.1% 97.0 Mo 51.0 15.9% 23.4 4.0% 40.8 13.6% 13.6 20.4% 48.0 8.4 21.2% 20.9 8.3% 75.3 9.5 14.4% 100.5 Tu 57.0 11.8% 25.7 9.8% 44.8 9.8% 17.4 27.9% 63.0 15.0 31.3% 22.8 9.1% 88.9 13.6 18.1% 112.8 We 72.0 26.3% 27.1 5.4% 50.7 13.2% 22.0 26.4% 84.0 21.0 33.3% 25.8 13.2% 107.4 18.5 20.8% 133.6 Th 88.8 23.3% 30.0 10.7% 64.8 27.8% 27.0 22.7% 106.0 22.0 26.2% 31.0 20.2% 129.0 21.6 20.1% 155.0 Fr(OD) 140.0 57.7% 50.1 67.0% 96.0 48.1% 62.0 129.6% 165.0 59.0 55.7% 71.3 130.0% 200.9 71.9 55.7% proj OD BO 354.0 152.9% 251.5 162.0% 62.0 417.0 152.7% 71.3 502.1 150.0% Multi 2.54 2.62 2.52 2.50 OD OW Total OD $ OW $ Total $ JttW2 356 777 1656 52 113 240 WC 251 819 1472 36 125 225 FF8 417 1352 2671 60 196 387 IW 502 1672 3010 79 262 476 proj Edited May 9, 2018 by POTUS 7 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mad Titan Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 1 minute ago, POTUS said: Funny they dropped MN 8m and I bumped mine 8m from 63 to 71m after todays 20% increase They are in my ballpark for OD now Saturdays are stronger for SH's than FF8. Its going to be more than their 15%. FF8 was 17% and AI's PS are much stronger PS run rate picking up at the end to over 1.7m. It will clear 129m, maybe crawl to 130m at 2 or 3am $250m+ looking real good. We need 4m per hour tomorrow 4m is the target but what if it’s 5m? Or 3.5m? How does that change the target? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 (edited) 23 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said: 4m is the target but what if it’s 5m? Or 3.5m? How does that change the target? 5 will increase OD for sure, but not linearly, it'll enter a higher saturation point and the PS multi will drop 3.5 will drop OW by a few percent, unless it ramps up in the evening to 4.5. Also the PS can keep rolling until 3am on the last day if they keep adding shows late. I kept my low end at 230m in case PS bump just 40% tomorrow or the PS multi drops to 2.25 Edited May 9, 2018 by POTUS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 (edited) 43 minutes ago, Fake said: POTUS has been using JttW2, WC and FF8 as comps. Calculating the ratio of presales(24 hours out) vs OD: JttW2: 88.8 vs 356 = 4.01x WC: 64.8 vs 251.5 = 3.88x FF8: 106 vs 417 = 3.93x 3.90x from 128M presales equals 500M OD!! yup, there you go, I didn't pick my number out of thin air MN PS ramping up nicely Edited May 9, 2018 by POTUS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mad Titan Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 Tracking this for China has become just as fun/interesting as tracking it domestic 😄 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Infinity War (2 days out) Midnight - 25.6 OD - 107 (+20.6%)(133,434 screens) Sat - 76.6 (+25%) Sun - 33.53 (+26%) Expected increase today. About 20k screens were added. Saturday once again showing an amazing increase and now Sunday is also showing good higher increases. It needs to increase 25% tomorrow and then 50% on Thursday to hit 200m in OD PS. Right now I have it at 204m usd opening weekend with decent ratings. I am fairly conservative with this prediction and am using very low multipliers so it could blow way past this number. On the other hand if ratings are as bad as Black Panther then it could come in lower than this. Infinity War (1 days out) Midnight - 30.36 OD - 128.44 (+20%)(154,484 screens) Sat - 94 (+22.7%) Sun - 40.72 (+21.4%) About same increase as yesterday. I had expected around 25% today so it came under expectations for the first time. Still it already is a very strong result and guarantees that the OD PS are over F8. Around 21k screens were added today. As for tomorrow I doubt it can get over a 50% increase although I will be very happy if it did. If it can only rise to about 180-190k screens tomorrow then I think it will only manage a 40% rise tomorrow. However if it can get to 200k or close then it could do 50%. Will have to wait and see what happens. Right now I am at 220m usd OW but if it can manage 50% tomorrow then that number will rise 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 Maoyan numbers a bit lower than real numbers, usually its numbers are higher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mad Titan Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Proxima Olive said: Maoyan numbers a bit lower than real numbers, usually its numbers are higher Does that indicate anything? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 total presales Just crossed 300M 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eXtacy Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 On 5/8/2018 at 4:56 PM, POTUS said: Saturday PS vs OD FF8 46% WC 36% IW 70% FF8 and WC bumped 18 and 20%. Typical bump is 30% for action/SH film. 40%+ happens for a breakout film. Its hard to bump 30% for large openers but it is looking good with that PS ratio. Should OD hit 487m as projected, a 30% bump would take OW to $260m Still climbing for Saturday, now 73.5% ratio 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, POTUS said: yup, there you go, I didn't pick my number out of thin air MN PS ramping up nicely And doing the same for Saturday..... I just have FF8's number..... 53M (2 Days out) resulted into 487M Sat, so that's 9.19x. Applying the same on 94M for TA, it comes at 863M!! Holy Moly!!!! Clearly that's not gonna happen...... but 640M ($100M) isn't impossible! Edit: FF8 Saturday presales were at 76M one day out. So that's 6.40x multi from "presales 1 day out". Even on applying that multiplier on IW's "presales 2 days out", the number comes out to be 600M+ !!!!! Edited May 9, 2018 by Fake 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 10 hours ago, POTUS said: 1.45m in the last hour. It should get to 129m+ today up 20%, continues to stay ahead of projections MN should get to 29m. 8% higher than FF8 10 hours ago, fmpro said: 1,5 mill/hour now. So 130 mill is the floor around midnight. Should do more when it increases tonight. Lets hope it does 135~ish and a 50% increase tomorrow for 200 mill PS 9 hours ago, POTUS said: Holy shit your projection is higher than mine for a change 129.08 at 1am. Close enough to call it dead on. It hasn't let us down. I say it matches FF8's 55.7% bump tomorrow and hits 200m dead on. You over or under? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
