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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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1 hour ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-box-office-avengers-infinity-war-crushes-presales-records-1110139

 

With nearly $50 million in presales and counting, the Marvel Disney juggernaut has topped the record for a Hollywood film set by 'The Fate of the Furious' last year.

Writer screwing up again. He is comparing 3 days of presales of IW to FF8's OD. They don't do research do they. Just like CNN:P

 

The mega-tentpole had notched $47.5 million (RMB 302 million) 

Universal's Fate of the Furious was the prior record holder with an estimated $25 million (RMB 158 million) in 2017

 

A strong showing in the world's most populous nation could prove instrumental in helping Infinity War become the first summer tentpole ever to approach $2 billion worldwide. China's biggest-earning superhero film to date was Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) with $240 million — a total most China box-office analysts believe to be within Infinity War's reach.

 

No shit, after writing a whole article that PS are blowing away a $400m movie, its "believed" that $240m is with in reach. Perhaps $400m is in reach?

Its just like when I was tracking Jaws in 75. Three weeks in a row it did $7m and lines where around the corner and some DJ asked rhetorically "Can it make $100m?" I was like" It'll make $200m dummy!" I was 10, I snuck in. That movie scared the shit out of me. I still went swimming though. Sharks only kill 10 people a year. Rational kid I was

Edited by POTUS
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6 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Writer screwing up again. He is comparing 3 days of presales of IW to FF8's OD. They don't do research do they. Just like CNN:P

 

The mega-tentpole had notched $47.5 million (RMB 302 million) 

Universal's Fate of the Furious was the prior record holder with an estimated $25 million (RMB 158 million) in 2017

 

A strong showing in the world's most populous nation could prove instrumental in helping Infinity War become the first summer tentpole ever to approach $2 billion worldwide. China's biggest-earning superhero film to date was Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) with $240 million — a total most China box-office analysts believe to be within Infinity War's reach.

 

No shit, after writing a whole article that PS are blowing away a $400m movie, its "believed" that $240m is with in reach. Perhaps $400m is in reach?

Basically no journalists whatsoever know or care about the China Box Office. They see a tweet or something stating some random facts and they just bung them together. They compare movies from 3 years ago to now without realising the market has expanded massively since then. 

 

They truly are disgusting to be so ignorant towards CBO and it would take no more than a couple minutes to find info showing that $240m is like 70% happening OW compared to total.

 

These guys and Scotty just piss me off so much. It makes me want to apply to be a box office reporter for some company, since it would be pretty easy to do a better job than these guys for the most part. (Admittedly some journalists out there are decent, but several just want to cash in on headlines with no real relevance or even accuracy)

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10 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Basically no journalists whatsoever know or care about the China Box Office. They see a tweet or something stating some random facts and they just bung them together. They compare movies from 3 years ago to now without realising the market has expanded massively since then. 

 

They truly are disgusting to be so ignorant towards CBO and it would take no more than a couple minutes to find info showing that $240m is like 70% happening OW compared to total.

 

These guys and Scotty just piss me off so much. It makes me want to apply to be a box office reporter for some company, since it would be pretty easy to do a better job than these guys for the most part. (Admittedly some journalists out there are decent, but several just want to cash in on headlines with no real relevance or even accuracy)

This is so true, same for youtubers that talk about boxoffice and say other people are dumb if they think otherwise. (I know youtubers aren’t professionals but if you are going to tell be that they are dumb when they have another opinion you better make sure you can back it up)

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11 minutes ago, pepsa said:

This is so true, same for youtubers that talk about boxoffice and say other people are dumb if they think otherwise. (I know youtubers aren’t professionals but if you are going to tell be that they are dumb when they have another opinion you better make sure you can back it up)

Yeah I watched that grace whatever female you tuber , the real one not the member here, talk about china’s Bo and her estimate was that IW will do 200 million there total and has a good chance of surpassing Jurassic world worldwide , that’s the target for IW. Oh and that even if it does 1.999999 billion it won’t reach 2 billion WW.

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3 hours ago, POTUS said:

work the brain.

get a pencil and paper, not a calculator, those were expensive and rare when I was a kid tracking Jaws

divide yuan by 6.36 to get dollars;)

$345 and it was slow, the price of a laptop

 

 

I can’t. President Trump ruined the education system and now I’m left to rely on other people’s knowledge. 

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I screwed up on the inverse of the XR.  Getting old. Maybe I can write with mendelson

IW has an 8.8% XR advantage not 7.5%.  It needs to beat FF8(Y1352m/$195mOW) by just 21.2% in yuan to beat IW Dom OW (Y1639m+21.2%/$257.7m+32%)

490m-500m OD will do

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5 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Yeah I watched that grace whatever female you tuber , the real one not the member here, talk about china’s Bo and her estimate was that IW will do 200 million there total and has a good chance of surpassing Jurassic world worldwide , that’s the target for IW. Oh and that even if it does 1.999999 billion it won’t reach 2 billion WW.

She’s super smart though. Better to have lower expectations and be surprised than shoot for the stars (Avatar) and land in the fiery pits of hell (insert flop movie by choice)

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2 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

I can’t. President Trump ruined the education system and now I’m left to rely on other people’s knowledge. 

Education should be left to the states and local as it was for 200 years. We left England to get away from a centralized force. Education had gone downhill since the feds got involved 50 years ago.  Strong central government leads to something stupid like Common Core and eventually communism, thanks Obama. We need to get rid of it. I looked at the material its a joke. Trump will fix it. 

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12 minutes ago, POTUS said:

I screwed up on the inverse of the XR.  Getting old. Maybe I can write with mendelson

IW has an 8.8% XR advantage not 7.5%.  It needs to beat FF8(Y1352m/$195mOW) by just 21.2% in yuan to beat IW Dom OW (Y1639m+21.2%/$257.7m+32%)

490m-500m OD will do

How much does that effect your target? Couple million?

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8 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

How much does that effect your target? Couple million?

it makes it easier by 3% in yuan. target is the same as the calculations were originally in yuan. 

I thought IW would have to sell 24% more tickets than FF8 to beat IW Dom when I was thinking in $$. Just 21.2% and its getting about that % more in shows. About the same PTA and it bests $258m

So it looks like PS will be 20% larger, Shows 20% larger, plus Saturday looks stronger.

Looks great

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51 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

So here’s a question. Do you think China opening 2 weeks after everyone else hurt or helped the film?

 

Hurt because it allowed piracy and spoilers to happen?

 

Helped because it let the WOM spread and anticipation build?

There is really no way to find out whether it hurt or helped the BO. All we can do is speculate. I guess you could say that those who want to see the movie will see the movie regardless of piracy and spoilers. And the insane hype and the huge numbers would definitely have helped with awareness. 

40 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

She’s super smart though. Better to have lower expectations and be surprised than shoot for the stars (Avatar) and land in the fiery pits of hell (insert flop movie by choice)

There is a difference between smart, conservative and stupid. Saying the movie will do 200 in China is just plain silly when all evidence points towards the fact that it could do as much on the OW itself. All it would have taken is a bit of research and it is obvious she did not do any research. All she did was find out how much the previous movies did and guessed how much this would do while completely ignoring pre sales data. 

 

Her 1.6 billion total is also completely insane. She thought this will do 200 in China and lets say 150 more domestically for a total of 600 million after its total worldwide up to that point was 1.165b. That alone would take the WW total up to 1515. So she thought this will so only 95 million overseas after a 350 million week? That shows a completely lack of knowledge of box office. 

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Well John Campea kept repeating on Twitter that there was no way Infinity War could make 4x Black Panther's Total because Black Panther was an MCU film which completely ignores how Age of Ultron and Civil War did. This was of course after someone responded to his tweet how Infinity War may struggle to hit the $2 Billion mark by saying the MCU is more popular in China than Star Wars.

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28 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

There is really no way to find out whether it hurt or helped the BO. All we can do is speculate. I guess you could say that those who want to see the movie will see the movie regardless of piracy and spoilers. And the insane hype and the huge numbers would definitely have helped with awareness. 

There is a difference between smart, conservative and stupid. Saying the movie will do 200 in China is just plain silly when all evidence points towards the fact that it could do as much on the OW itself. All it would have taken is a bit of research and it is obvious she did not do any research. All she did was find out how much the previous movies did and guessed how much this would do while completely ignoring pre sales data. 

 

Her 1.6 billion total is also completely insane. She thought this will do 200 in China and lets say 150 more domestically for a total of 600 million after its total worldwide up to that point was 1.165b. That alone would take the WW total up to 1515. So she thought this will so only 95 million overseas after a 350 million week? That shows a completely lack of knowledge of box office. 

Yeah this will 99.9% be over 1.6 billion after this weekend.

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I like John campea, but man he shoudn't talk about boxoffice, I tried to contact him, and tell him just take a look at this forum do some reading and he wll be able to inform alot beter on the subject. Not that were all crazy good at this but most of the people on here when they see a starting number in presales or just the first weekend do a fairly good sense how the movie will go and we can decently project. Decently (not good). Some of uss, like Potus and Olive are very good but i would argue that 90% of the people here would do a beter job than for example John Campea.

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