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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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55 minutes ago, POTUS said:

I hope Maoyan is partially down because the rate is low. Didnt update at all from 1230 to 1300. Then 1.6m from 1300-1330.

MN only ticked up 400k and should be running over 2m per hour

Crazy high

Last hour and a half was 4 mill. Needs to pick up tonight to hit 200 mill PS.

Looks tough atm

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3 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Last hour and a half was 4 mill. Needs to pick up tonight to hit 200 mill PS.

Looks tough atm

Ill settle for 190m.  Could be a higher PS multi or a big bump on sat if it falls short.

141.25m at 1430 running at 2.6m p/h

PS should run until 3am

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3 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Ill settle for 190m.  Could be a higher PS multi or a big bump on sat if it falls short.

141.25m at 1430 running at 2.6m p/h

PS should run until 3am

If that will be the case, what will be your OW hunch for this?

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11 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Ill settle for 190m.  Could be a higher PS multi or a big bump on sat if it falls short.

141.25m at 1430 running at 2.6m p/h

PS should run until 3am

Yeah. Looks more like 190 mill atm

 

PS OD multiplier will be really interesting. Anything from 2-2,75 can happen i guess

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I thought yesterday that this was rising commensurate to the screens being added and so far it looks like I am right. Only about 10-12k screens have been added today and it has risen only 13% so far. 

 

If 190k screens are really gonna happen then about 25k screens remains and when they are added the PS will rise by 25% or so as well. If only 180k screens are gonna be allocated then only 15k screens remain and it will only rise about 15-20% more. 

 

I think in the end its gonna end up increasing 35-40% only today. 

 

180m OD PS

MN - 65

OD - 180*2.5 = 450

Sat - 520

Sun - 365

=============

Total = 1400m Yuan or $220m USD. 

 

I am not sure about the Saturday number though. Sat PS looks very strong right now and so it could increase way more than the 15% increase I have given it. But yeah for now this is my prediction. 

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15 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

I thought yesterday that this was rising commensurate to the screens being added and so far it looks like I am right. Only about 10-12k screens have been added today and it has risen only 13% so far. 

 

If 190k screens are really gonna happen then about 25k screens remains and when they are added the PS will rise by 25% or so as well. If only 180k screens are gonna be allocated then only 15k screens remain and it will only rise about 15-20% more. 

 

I think in the end its gonna end up increasing 35-40% only today. 

 

180m OD PS

MN - 65

OD - 180*2.5 = 450

Sat - 520

Sun - 365

=============

Total = 1400m Yuan or $220m USD. 

 

I am not sure about the Saturday number though. Sat PS looks very strong right now and so it could increase way more than the 15% increase I have given it. But yeah for now this is my prediction. 

Thats only a 15% bump on Sat.  FF8 was 17%.  IW should play much stronger and the PS back that up.

At least 54m more on sat and then 38m more on sunday.  $235m+ if your OD is correct

Also, I think the PS multi will be a tad higher if PS come in at 180. It'll have less saturation than FF8, more room for walk ups

Edited by POTUS
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8 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Thats only a 15% bump on Sat.  FF8 was 17%.  IW should play much stronger and the PS back that up.

At least 54m more on sat and then 38m more on sunday.  $235m if your OD is correct

Also, I think the PS multi will be a tad higher if PS come in at 180. It'll have less saturation than FF8, more room for walk ups

I know I am being very conservative with my saturday numbers but on the other hand I think OD PS may come in even smaller than 180. Its 4:30 and PS is only up 13.6%. Usually I have seen over the past 2 days that midpoint for PS is 5pm. 

So lets say it gets to 14.5% in the next half hour which will take it to 29% till midnight. Lets give an extra 6% till tomorrow morning for a total increase of 35% and a final PS of 173

 

With this PS the number then becomes 

 

MN - 65

OD- 430

Sat - 540 (25% jump)

Sun - 380

=============

Total - 1415 Yuan or $222m USD

 

 

But I hope you are right about the walk up and a higher OD multi part

Edited by ZeeSoh
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