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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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Oh my the doom and gloom has kicked in.

 

First, Maoyan had FF8 coming in at 55m MN and then actuals were 62. At the current rate it will land at 58m+ at MN and could adjust upwards matching FF8.  FF7 had much stronger weekdays than AoU in 2015. It skews older.  Thats why post OW saturdays bumped 90% for AoU and 55% for FF7 and 8.  Matching FF8 MN is outperforming it essentially

 

Second, Why would the OD PS multi be less than FF8.  FF8 had the lowest HLWD multi since we started tracking 3 years ago. That was because of high saturation. Shows for IW are 20% more, PS will be 10% more. The multi should be slightly higher. Remember all other movies are above 3x PS these days. Hell, WC was a frontload PS monster at the time and it had a 2.62.

 

Third, FF8 OW was $195m but it would be $213m today.  Good News! XR dropped to $1=6.345.

 

So with it matching MN,

-10% more PS for OD should lead to a 10% higher weekend $234m,

-potentially higher PS multi could lead to another 5-10% to OW, $10-20m

-and a potential 30% bump on Saturday vs FF8 17%, +$15m

One of those three metrics could fall flat vs FF8, but not all 3. Just because PS didn't bump 50% today doesn't mean everything else goes to shit

Im sticking with $230-270

I dont see how it doesnt beat FF8 by 10% to beat $230. 270 is a reach, but with a 9.2 rating, a 2.70PSm, a 35% Sat bump and 25% Sunday hold, well, why not

 

 

Edited by POTUS
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9 hours ago, eXtacy said:

Flame Mendelson, Grace and more all you want. The truth of the matter is they have not seen the data we have. They are probably just looking at Ultron/Civil War/Black Panther numbers and making a gut estimate from that.

 

Not making any work and not looking at public data for commenting on box office (specially when you have a platform) is a 100% legit blame, make it almost sound worst that misreading the data.

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2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Not making any work and not looking at public data for commenting on box office (specially when you have a platform) is a 100% legit blame, make it almost sound worst that misreading the data.

Randolph and Campea are just youtube nobodies but Mendelsohn is like an actual journalist for a real publication too, like there's no excuse.

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Wow look one useless person supporting another :hahaha:

 

Anyways onto some actual numbers now. Midnight is upto 55 now. Below are the record midnight numbers


The Fate of the Furious - ¥62.71M
Furious 7 - ¥52.46M
Warcraft -  ¥50.17M
The Last Knight - ¥42.14M
Age of Ultron - ¥29.73M
Age of Extinction - ¥20.85M

 

Infinity War has already surpassed F7 to take the #2 spot. With 1 hour left, it seems unlikely that it would unseat F8 for the top spot. 

 

As for OD, the rise today is now at 35% so it accelerated a little more than I thought but not enough to get to 50% it seems. Will cross 40% by tomorrow at least

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12 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Do a lot people walk up to midnight screenings in China? lol seems like a thing you'd pre-book.

But F8 had more, which means IW is having less, which means "crumbling" i guess? Still, walking up to midnight screenings sound like a super bad idea lol.

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5 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Oh my the doom and gloom has kicked in.

 

First, Maoyan had FF8 coming in at 55m MN and then actuals were 62. At the current rate it will land at 58m+ at MN and could adjust upwards matching FF8.  FF7 had much stronger weekdays than AoU in 2015. It skews older.  Thats why post OW saturdays bumped 90% for AoU and 55% for FF7 and 8.  Matching FF8 MN is outperforming it essentially

 

Second, Why would the OD PS multi be less than FF8.  FF8 had the lowest HLWD multi since we started tracking 3 years ago. That was because of high saturation. Shows for IW are 20% more, PS will be 10% more. The multi should be slightly higher. Remember all other movies are above 3x PS these days. Hell, WC was a frontload PS monster at the time and it had a 2.62.

 

Third, FF8 OW was $195m but it would be $213m today.  Good News! XR dropped to $1=6.345.

 

So with it matching MN,

-10% more PS for OD should lead to a 10% higher weekend $234m,

-potentially higher PS multi could lead to another 5-10% to OW, $10-20m

-and a potential 30% bump on Saturday vs FF8 17%, +$15m

One of those three metrics could fall flat vs FF8, but not all 3. Just because PS didn't bump 50% today doesn't mean everything else goes to shit

Im sticking with $230-270

I dont see how it doesnt beat FF8 by 10% to beat $230. 270 is a reach, but with a 9.2 rating, a 2.70PSm, a 35% Sat bump and 25% Sunday hold, well, why not

 

 

You tell them POTUS :)  

i agree

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4 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Oh my the doom and gloom has kicked in.

 

First, Maoyan had FF8 coming in at 55m MN and then actuals were 62. At the current rate it will land at 58m+ at MN and could adjust upwards matching FF8.  FF7 had much stronger weekdays than AoU in 2015. It skews older.  Thats why post OW saturdays bumped 90% for AoU and 55% for FF7 and 8.  Matching FF8 MN is outperforming it essentially

 

Second, Why would the OD PS multi be less than FF8.  FF8 had the lowest HLWD multi since we started tracking 3 years ago. That was because of high saturation. Shows for IW are 20% more, PS will be 10% more. The multi should be slightly higher. Remember all other movies are above 3x PS these days. Hell, WC was a frontload PS monster at the time and it had a 2.62.

 

Third, FF8 OW was $195m but it would be $213m today.  Good News! XR dropped to $1=6.345.

 

So with it matching MN,

-10% more PS for OD should lead to a 10% higher weekend $234m,

-potentially higher PS multi could lead to another 5-10% to OW, $10-20m

-and a potential 30% bump on Saturday vs FF8 17%, +$15m

One of those three metrics could fall flat vs FF8, but not all 3. Just because PS didn't bump 50% today doesn't mean everything else goes to shit

Im sticking with $230-270

I dont see how it doesnt beat FF8 by 10% to beat $230. 270 is a reach, but with a 9.2 rating, a 2.70PSm, a 35% Sat bump and 25% Sunday hold, well, why not

 

 

Excellent analysis. I agree with your last few points that the potential for it to reach 270 is still there, but it is very very unlikely to fail to meet all three criteria mentioned.

 

Will be a fun day tomorrow regardless :) 

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10 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Wow look one useless person supporting another :hahaha:

 

Anyways onto some actual numbers now. Midnight is upto 55 now. Below are the record midnight numbers


The Fate of the Furious - ¥62.71M
Furious 7 - ¥52.46M
Warcraft -  ¥50.17M
The Last Knight - ¥42.14M
Age of Ultron - ¥29.73M
Age of Extinction - ¥20.85M

 

Infinity War has already surpassed F7 to take the #2 spot. With 1 hour left, it seems unlikely that it would unseat F8 for the top spot. 

 

As for OD, the rise today is now at 35% so it accelerated a little more than I thought but not enough to get to 50% it seems. Will cross 40% by tomorrow at least

Correct me if i'm wrong but is this a bad sign? IW has been leading the presales race since the beginning and is now losing to FF8 midnight. You guys still seem to be happy with the number but isn't it a bit weird?

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12 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Correct me if i'm wrong but is this a bad sign? IW has been leading the presales race since the beginning and is now losing to FF8 midnight. You guys still seem to be happy with the number but isn't it a bit weird?

Agreed but since I don’t understand most of the analysis in this thread I was afraid to post the exact same thing you posted. This was smashing f8 and suddenly it looses in midnights ?

Edited by Thrylos 7
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1 minute ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Correct me if i'm wrong but is this a bad sign? IW has been leading the presales race since the beginning and is now losing to FF8 midnight. You guys still seem to be happy with the number but isn't it a bit weird?

It had 3 weeks of PS vs 2 weeks for FF8.  The run was different

MN is its own thing based on average movie goer age and genre. Not 100% comparable

 

As far as OD PS bump today. This was the first 3 week run we've seen. WC had 17 days. Generally if the numbers are large and the run is long we see a lower bump. Movies with a 7 day PS run can bump 100%

 

The length of the run doesn't affect the PS multi though, its a separate issue. That can be smaller due to saturation like CNY films or FF8, or due to poor out of the gate WoM, higher if it gets great WoM.

 

To answer your question. Tonight MN PS bump or OD for that matter isn't a bad sign.

An 8 rating, a 2.2 multi or a flat saturday would be biblical as far as bad signs go;)

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1 minute ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Agreed bit since I don’t understand most of the analysis in this thread I was afraid to post the exact same thing you posted. This was smashing f8 and suddenly it looses in midnights ?

Well keep in mind FF8 skews older so more families will see IW on Sat than FF8 has + IW presales started like 10 days before FF8 so it may have skewed the build up some. 

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13 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Correct me if i'm wrong but is this a bad sign? IW has been leading the presales race since the beginning and is now losing to FF8 midnight. You guys still seem to be happy with the number but isn't it a bit weird?

@POTUS described it much better than I could have. But I will add one thing. We are happy with the number because the number is great. Just because it MAY fall short by 2-3 million doesnt knock it down, mot everything has to break records for it to be considered amazing. 

 

Even before it has begun its run IW has broken multiple records, I am perfectly OK with it not getting 1

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