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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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Finally listing Solo shows. At 7500. PS at 155k. I assume it'll get at least 20% share at 55k. After rolling out today and tomorrow PS should double or more every day with the late start. I wont be able to gauge anything until Tuesday.

Edited by POTUS
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1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

what? $20M OW? So it's gonna make about as much as TLJ total? Why isn't it dropping? 

Last Jedi did 28m OW, 20m would still be a near 30% drop.

 

Star wars china OW trajectory

 

52->30->28->20 if 20 happen.

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2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Last Jedi did 28m OW, 20m would still be a near 30% drop.

 

Star wars china OW trajectory

 

52->30->28->20 if 20 happen.

 

People here also had TLJ at like $70M at one point in the presales analysis cycle, so we'll see where things land. 

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57 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

what? $20M OW? So it's gonna make about as much as TLJ total? Why isn't it dropping? 

Thats just an extrapolation assuming it doubles PS everyday and then hit typical multipliers on OW. 

 

It is rare for PS to double everyday till the last day however its not impossible seeing that PS are starting this late. But we will get a better idea what the final PS will be by Monday or Tuesday. 

 

Also whether it hits typical multipliers will depend on ratings and WoM. Given how SW performs in China I doubt it will get good rating and hit typical multies. 

 

Also TLJ had a multi of just 1.5. Even if Solo does 20m OW and with TLJ multi it will only hit 30m total which would be a drop of nearly 38% from TLJ which would be substantial given how low TLJ was to begin with. 

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33 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Thats just an extrapolation assuming it doubles PS everyday and then hit typical multipliers on OW. 

 

It is rare for PS to double everyday till the last day however its not impossible seeing that PS are starting this late. But we will get a better idea what the final PS will be by Monday or Tuesday. 

 

Also whether it hits typical multipliers will depend on ratings and WoM. Given how SW performs in China I doubt it will get good rating and hit typical multies. 

 

Also TLJ had a multi of just 1.5. Even if Solo does 20m OW and with TLJ multi it will only hit 30m total which would be a drop of nearly 38% from TLJ which would be substantial given how low TLJ was to begin with. 

Yes, just a possibility since PS started late. Movies usually double or more the first 3 days and I have seen a movie double the last two that started late.

It seems like a reasonable prediction based in the 400k its first day.  Not a projection, yet.

Edited by POTUS
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Solo has the strangest PS run ever.

Only 2k shows added instead of 5k+.

PS at just 450k. Not doubling today as per usual for the second day of the rollout.

Just at 12k shows. Usually 50% of shows are listed by sunday. It will have 55-60k shows. Thats that's 10k per day to be listed thru thursday. 

 

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20 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Solo has the strangest PS run ever.

Only 2k shows added instead of 5k+.

PS at just 450k. Not doubling today as per usual for the second day of the rollout.

Just at 12k shows. Usually 50% of shows are listed by sunday. It will have 55-60k shows. Thats that's 10k per day to be listed thru thursday. 

 

I feel like most theatres scheduled just one or two showings to see what presales would be like, realised that nobody wants to watch it and are now very reluctant to put new shows up. 

 

I genuinely feel it could have just 30k shows and a very low psm (like 2.5x)

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3 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

I feel like most theatres scheduled just one or two showings to see what presales would be like, realised that nobody wants to watch it and are now very reluctant to put new shows up. 

 

I genuinely feel it could have just 30k shows and a very low psm (like 2.5x)

They gave 57k shows to AQP with IW expecting a $50m weekend. They cant be expecting much worse than that with IW doing just 20-25m.

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I had some hope for Solo after it did relatively ok after 10k shows listed. But seeing it add only about 3k shows today and barely increasing in PS rather than doubling plus what Olive said, this is heading to be an epic trainwreck

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Solo increased about 60% on Sunday with 640k in PS. It added about 3.5k shows for a total of 13,857 screens. 

 

Thats very poor considering we were hoping for a doubling at least. The relatively low rise is due to the very low amount of screens it added today. Only 14k screens 4 days out seems very concerning. 

 

Even if it doubles everyday from here on out it will get to only 10m yuan in final PS and then only to 18.8m usd OW using typical multipliers which Solo may not have. From there if it follows TLJ multi it will get to 28 total which will be nearly 42% drop from TLJ. A 2x multi gets it to 37.6m usd. 

 

 I think the multi off of OW will be as low as TLJ. Suffice to say things are going bad to worse for Ranger Solo. 

Edited by ZeeSoh
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2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Solo increased about 60% on Sunday with 640k in PS. It added about 3.5k shows for a total of 13,857 screens. 

 

Thats very poor considering we were hoping for a doubling at least. The relatively low rise is due to the very low amount of screens it added today. Only 14k screens 4 days out seems very concerning. 

 

Even if it doubles everyday from here on out it will get to only 10m yuan in final PS and then only to 18.8m usd OW. From there if it follows TLJ multi it will get to 28 total which will be nearly 42% drop from TLJ. A 2x multi gets it to 37.6m usd. 

 

I doubt it will double PS every day and I think the multi off of OW will be as low as TLJ. Suffice to say things are going bad to worse for Ranger Solo. 

Yikes. Its not looking good almost anywhere pre-sale wise.

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49 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Solo increased about 60% on Sunday with 640k in PS. It added about 3.5k shows for a total of 13,857 screens. 

 

Thats very poor considering we were hoping for a doubling at least. The relatively low rise is due to the very low amount of screens it added today. Only 14k screens 4 days out seems very concerning. 

 

Even if it doubles everyday from here on out it will get to only 10m yuan in final PS and then only to 18.8m usd OW using typical multipliers which Solo may not have. From there if it follows TLJ multi it will get to 28 total which will be nearly 42% drop from TLJ. A 2x multi gets it to 37.6m usd. 

 

 I think the multi off of OW will be as low as TLJ. Suffice to say things are going bad to worse for Ranger Solo. 

Hmm. Wonder if we’re going below 400 DOM+China?

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