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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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5 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Shazam (3 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.18m

OD - 4.37m (+44.7%) (47040 shows)

Sat - 1.33m

Sun - 964k

 

Good jump but smaller than T:R and JL. That holiday on OD is making it difficult for me make a prediction. But right now I would go with a range of 37-45m right now. 

i wanted 100m but does not likely now . 

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1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

Only a 2 week PS run such a huge movie :ohmygod:    

Well, daily increases will be even more fun then

 

This time, I will lower my expectations for OW based on pre-sales. I still remember the drama when IW didn't live up to its predicted OW based on its huge presales.

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On 4/1/2019 at 9:58 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Shazam (3 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.18m

OD - 4.37m (+44.7%) (47040 shows)

Sat - 1.33m

Sun - 964k

 

 

Good jump but smaller than T:R and JL. That holiday on OD is making it difficult for me make a prediction. But right now I would go with a range of 37- 45m right now. 

Shazam (2 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.47m

OD - 6.07m (+38.9%) (62094 shows)

Sat - 1.74m

Sun - 1.24m

 

 

OD PS

Sat PS

Sun PS

Shows

Justice League

8.43

4.55

2.32

63109

Thor Ragnarok

7.34

3.57

1.86

58000

Shazam!

6.07

1.74

1.24

62094

 

Rest of the comparisons are too far ahead to compare. The holiday OD is definitely skewing the presales. OD PS are close enough to Thor Ragnarok and Justice League but Sat/Sun is far behind. If not for the holiday I think OD PS would have been lower as well. 

 

If Shazam follows JL from now on it will finish at 18.72 final PS and 37m USD OW

If Shazam follows T:R from now on it will finish at 20m final PS and 45m USD OW

 

Thats the same range as I gave yesterday without any calculations :P. But again the holiday on the OD is making it difficult to predict this. CM also had a holiday on its OD and it had a low OW multi. Could this be the same?

Edited by ZeeSoh
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On 4/2/2019 at 10:03 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Shazam (2 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.47m

OD - 6.07m (+38.9%) (62094 shows)

Sat - 1.74m

Sun - 1.24m

Shazam (1 day out)

 

Midnight - 2.07m

OD - 9.38m (+54.5%) (86787 shows)

Sat - 2.60m

Sun - 1.70m

 

Decent increase today but the increases over the past 3 days have fallen behind our two comparisons (JL and T:R). Show count is on the same level as these movies but quite behind when looking at recent (2018 onwards) SH movies. One of the reasons for both the low show count and low PS could be that another new opener which opens tomorrow and has a decent PS itself. 

 

Looking at the PS. the ratings from South Korea and the report by Gavin, I am gonna lower my OW range to below 40m. I'm thinking 34-39m USD OW at this point. 

 

Let's see how it does tomorrow. Both Justice League and Thor Ragnarok doubled their PS on the last day so Shazam should aim for that. 

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3 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Shazam (1 day out)

 

Midnight - 2.07m

OD - 9.38m (+54.5%) (86787 shows)

Sat - 2.60m

Sun - 1.70m

 

Decent increase today but the increases over the past 3 days have fallen behind our two comparisons (JL and T:R). Show count is on the same level as these movies but quite behind when looking at recent (2018 onwards) SH movies. One of the reasons for both the low show count and low PS could be that another new opener which opens tomorrow and has a decent PS itself. 

 

Looking at the PS. the ratings from South Korea and the report by Gavin, I am gonna lower my OW range to below 40m. I'm thinking 34-39m USD OW at this point. 

 

Let's see how it does tomorrow. Both Justice League and Thor Ragnarok doubled their PS on the last day so Shazam should aim for that. 

What do you think will be the numbers in the end of its run? 

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23 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Is that an estimate or intel?

the big ones have been 17-21 days out.

I was thinking any day now

Yes, could be as early as Friday(HK start selling on Friday)

But I think will be Monday at earliest, when holiday is over.

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15 minutes ago, Thiago said:

What do you think will be the numbers in the end of its run? 

I'd prefer to wait to see how it runs over the opening day and what the Maoyan ratings are (which we will find on the morning/afternoon of the opening day) before making a prediction. At this time signs indicate that it probably wont break out like Venom and Aquaman did. 

 

Good thing is that there is no major competition until Endgame and the other movie coming out this week is not too hot either so it nearly 20 days of free run. 

 

Still if it opens in the 30's as I think it will then it probably wont get to the 100m mark that all SH movies nowadays make. 

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