Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[cdsacken]

29 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Yes. 9.2+ Maoyan score and there it is.

What if it did 9.5

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

What if it did 9.5

500mn plus full run.

[FlashMaster659]

Endgame Pre-sales

 

Midnights: ¥53,447,100

OD: ¥38,234,800

Thurs: ¥7,147,800

Fri: ¥7,248,700

Sat: ¥7,747,700

Sun: ¥2,848,600

4/29: ¥469,700

4/30: ¥376,000

5/1: ¥614,400

5/2: ¥328,900

5/3: ¥299,000

5/4: ¥282,000

5/5: ¥1,600

5/6: ¥300

5/7: ¥300

 

Total: ¥119,046,900

Edited April 12, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[POTUS 2020]

 

43 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

God damn. Can it do $300M 5 day in China?

It will need 220k shows per day.

Possible. 

[terrestrial]

Okayyyy  I am pretty sure it got stated that as Sunday is a workday.... = not to assume its possible

[Ledmonkey96]

8 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Endgame Pre-sales

 

Midnights: ¥53,447,100

OD: ¥38,234,800

Thurs: ¥7,147,800

Fri: ¥7,248,700

Sat: ¥7,747,700

Sun: ¥2,848,600

4/29: ¥469,700

4/30: ¥376,000

5/1: ¥614,400

5/2: ¥328,900

5/3: ¥299,000

5/4: ¥282,000

5/5: ¥1,600

5/6: ¥300

5/7: ¥300

 

Total: ¥119,046,900

In less than 13 hours at that..... I wonder what the full 24 hours will end at.

[rishijoesanu]

1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

Okayyyy  I am pretty sure it got stated that as Sunday is a workday.... = not to assume its possible

At this rate people are going to take sick leave to go watch this movie

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

Okayyyy  I am pretty sure it got stated that as Sunday is a workday.... = not to assume its possible

Sunday is a workday, but it’s still possible. Possible is a dangerous word. Definitely not the right place for expectations.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Okayyyy  I am pretty sure it got stated that as Sunday is a workday.... = not to assume its possible

That's why we are predicting/having Sunday drop 45-50% instead of 20-30%.

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Sunday is a workday, but it’s still possible. Possible is a dangerous word. Definitely not the right place for expectations.

That's the problem here. People are taking Possible to mean expected. It's possible that it could it hit $300m, but it's expected that something around $230m is more likely.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, feasby007 said:

That's the problem here. People are taking Possible to mean expected. It's possible that it could it hit $300m, but it's expected that something around $260m is more likely.

FIFY

[seduh]

19 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Endgame Pre-sales

 

Midnights: ¥53,447,100

OD: ¥38,234,800

Thurs: ¥7,147,800

Fri: ¥7,248,700

Sat: ¥7,747,700

Sun: ¥2,848,600

4/29: ¥469,700

4/30: ¥376,000

5/1: ¥614,400

5/2: ¥328,900

5/3: ¥299,000

5/4: ¥282,000

5/5: ¥1,600

5/6: ¥300

5/7: ¥300

 

Total: ¥119,046,900

Amazing presales. Clearly AEG will have a low multi but this number is amazing. It will open really huge and with bad legs (normal in China) it will reach $400 (I hope) ¿Can it become the first 3 billion forgein movie?

[terrestrial]

So the next tome someone asks for $300m OW, especially as a new to the fun here member, how to answer in such wordings? To me it still sounds like a no to $300m for now still, especially if expectations are THAT high, the ratings can suffer for that alone.

 

 

Edited April 12, 2019 by terrestrial

[Premium George]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

So the next tome someone asks for $300m OW, especially as a new to the fun here member, how to answer in such wordings? To me it still sounds like a no to $300m for now still, especially if expectations are THAT high, the ratings can suffer for that alone.

 

 

No, it's not a no for $300m. But $250m is the target right now. $250-$270m is not crazy and newbies can hope for that.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

So the next tome someone asks for $300m OW, especially as a new to the fun here member, how to answer in such wordings? 

Simple. The likely number is 250-275.

If it get favourable (9.2+) rating will do 300. Definitely possible. The Wandering Earth did that much in 6 days (though it had limited release for first 3 days compared to normal big films).

 

If it don't do 250, that will actually be disappointing. We can't simply make expectations low deliberately so that its not disappoints. What is disappointing is disappointing.

Edited April 12, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[terrestrial]

1 minute ago, Premium George said:

No, it's not a no for $300m. But $250m is the target right now. $250-$270m is not crazy and newbies can hope for that.

that is essential why it is a no for now (plus the missing audience ratings)
 

A no for now does not exclude a future possibility for more (or less)

 

A hope for only = no for now - thats how I see it 😉

[terrestrial]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Simple. The likely number is 250-275.

If it get favourable (9.2+) rating will do 300. Definitely possible. The Wandering Earth did that much in 6 days (though it had limited release for first 3 days compared to normal big films).

 

If it don't do 250, that will actually be disappointing. We can't simply make expectations low deliberately so that its not disappoints. What is disappointing is disappointing.

But that is, what e.g. I am writing here about. Ppl do not add a qualifier always to it.

The numbers alone - a no for now

 

the numbers and a high rating - a nice possibility, depending on the ratings and the reasons given for the ratings

[Premium George]

Just now, terrestrial said:

that is essential why it is a no for now (plus the missing audience ratings)
 

A no for now does not exclude a future possibility for more (or less)

 

A hope for only = no for now - thats how I see it 😉

But it's more than a hope. Just making it clear, it's not a wish, it's possible by the data. A direct no is safe and avoids the frustration of newbies getting disappointed, but it doesn't tell the real picture. 

[Ledmonkey96]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

that is essential why it is a no for now (plus the missing audience ratings)
 

A no for now does not exclude a future possibility for more (or less)

 

A hope for only = no for now - thats how I see it 😉

At what point in Presales would we consider them high enough for 300mil OW to become a likely event?

[IceFire9yt]

40 minutes ago, rishijoesanu said:

Since this is unprecedented levels of presales, it's an outlier in all extrapolation models. So, it's better to be conservative and anticipate heavy frontloading

I don't think a conservative model is going to inherently be more accurate.  It's only more useful in the sense that it doesn't get people's hopes up. Its equally  valid to point out that all these predictions are based on very pessimistic assumptions that aren't well justified, and there's a very good chance that this consensus is dead wrong.

 

Sure, you can point to some OW record breakers that had poor legs due to front loading (DH2), but plenty of movies that have broken those records have had great legs (TA, JW, TFA). Its a fallacy to assume that high OW mean poor legs.  If you look at the best opening movies it's pretty clear that this isn't the case. 4/6 200M+ openers domestically have a 3x or more multi.  The Avengers movie with the lowest opening also has the worst legs.  Imo reception and rewatchability are far more important for legs than OW.

Edited April 12, 2019 by IceFire9yt