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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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Posted (edited)

I wonder if Midnight will go for ¥100mn by Friday/Saturday (Morning) and on 22nd midnight, ¥120mn 

Edited by Charlie Jatinder

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Posted (edited)

I don't know if they updated completely, but at ¥93mn, the occupancy is still 30% on 28k shows, which mean at 100% it will be around ¥300mn. There will still 7k shows more, going by higher limit of @Olive number, assuming they add just ¥50mn to capacity, the midnight capacity shall be around ¥350mn.

 

A:EG was 51% on 19k in midnight, FF8 was 61%  on 19k, A:AOU 54% on 8k and FF7 at 82% on 11k.

 

I will be content with 45%, giving it ¥160mn. If somehow it manage 50%, that will be ¥175mn. Totally do-able.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I don't know if they updated completely, but at ¥93mn, the occupancy is still 30% on 28k shows, which mean at 100% it will be around ¥300mn. There will still 7k shows more, going by higher limit of @Olive number, assuming they add just ¥50mn to capacity, the midnight capacity shall be around ¥350mn.

 

A:EG was 51% on 19k in midnight, FF8 was 61%  on 19k and FF7 at 82% on 11k.

 

I will be content with 45%, giving it ¥160mn

It will be at 100m tonight at the rate its going. just crossed 94m

OD 114.7

Tot 325m

Edited by POTUS 2020

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2 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

It will be at 100m tonight at the rate its going. just crossed 94m

OD 114.7

I guess it shall slow down now, if ¥8mn it increased can be allowed for yesterday and today sales. But if don't then perhaps premiere affect.

 

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27 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I wonder if Midnight will go for ¥100mn by Friday/Saturday (Morning) and on 22nd midnight, ¥120mn 

why not 100m by tonight

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

being conservative.:sparta:

at 98.5m. 100m happening by 6pm unless the freeze sets in again.

OD at 118m

I'll average todays increase over 2 days on the chart since it was frozen most of yesterday

Total PS 338m up 12%

Edited by POTUS 2020
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2 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

at 98.5m. 100m happening by 6pm unless the freeze sets in again.

OD at 118m

I'll average todays increase over 2 days on the chart since it was frozen most of yesterday

The usual pace day before yesterday was ¥0.8mn per hour. Assuming it is normal from now and a bit better rate since its T-5 days now and not T-7 and do ¥6-7mn from here for ¥124-125mn OD. That will be in same range as my projection chart, so I will assume the OD to be ¥114mn yesterday.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14veIao3B3dsFN11hxTEdpCgqkrdb9fq2PX3HiNH060s/edit?usp=drivesdk

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@Charlie Jatinder I really don't understand all this PS for EG. It looks like its freezing in the last days. What about the 240M 5 day weekend!!! is this still happening?  And with all the drama surrounding its first couple of PS days and at the and the total will barely exceed FF8 and IW!!. I am really confused?  please explain more.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Finnick said:

@Charlie Jatinder I really don't understand all this PS for EG. It looks like its freezing in the last days. What about the 240M 5 day weekend!!! is this still happening?  And with all the drama surrounding its first couple of PS days and at the and the total will barely exceed FF8 and IW!!. I am really confused?  please explain more.

270 FTW.

 

Its unfrozen now and numbers are par projection, could be better though.

 

Regarding full run and actually 5 days also, that depend on WoM, and more often than not, Maoyan score has been very good signal for trending. If Maoyan score is 9+, it shall open around 270mn and crawl past FF8, local currency would be close. A better score, say 9.2 will make it certain to go for all time Hollywood record and crazy 9.5, will open gates for $500mn plus.

 

So it depends on reception.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

270 FTW.

You mean 270M for the 5 days!!!!

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Finnick said:

@Charlie Jatinder I really don't understand all this PS for EG. It looks like its freezing in the last days. What about the 240M 5 day weekend!!! is this still happening?  And with all the drama surrounding its first couple of PS days and at the and the total will barely exceed FF8 and IW!!. I am really confused?  please explain more.

PS is flying again and will beat IW's PS by a large margin, but the PSm will drop as FF8 and IW did

I think $250m minimum should happen which is 10% over IW's first 5 days

Many variables to take into consideration.

Pros

Last installment increases hype to see

20% more screens built

OD Wed gets the rushers out of the way freeing up seats for the weekend

10% higher Average ticket price

OW multi will be higher due to holiday

MN numbers indicate that they are going to stuff the seats, higher PTA for OD/OW than IW

Cons

30m longer runtime decrease shows per screen per day. Possibly 10% net show increase not 20%

XR is 5% weaker 

Sunday is a workday, Making Saturday a effectively a Sunday

Some may wait for the holiday deflating the weekend a bit

 

10% higher PTA for the 5 days?

10% higher ticket prices?

10%  more shows?

-5% XR

all things considered, 10% over IW's $225m seems like a safe bet, 20% over matches Charlie's $270m

 

Froze again😂

 

Edited by POTUS 2020
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14 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

 

Froze again😂

 

MN moves occasionally a bit, but OD doesn't

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Since its Frozen, Idk if I should do the report today again. Perhaps Taopiaopiao daily gain can be used.

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27 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Since its Frozen, Idk if I should do the report today again. Perhaps Taopiaopiao daily gain can be used.

 

Maybe use it and take off about 3% from the total, since they seem to overestimate. 

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007FTBDTgy1g273dat9zyj30u01hchdt.jpg

First movie ever to cross 100M on midnights shows.

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Total PS is at ¥350m now. OD just hit ¥120m also.

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