Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Well it did hit $200m lol

Sorry, should've been more clear. For OW.

 

Pretty sure it just missed $200m due to ER

[IceFire9yt]

Nah, BOM has it at 191M, but for some reason they decided to exclude midnights.  With Midnights included it opened at just over 200M USD.

Edited April 19, 2019 by IceFire9yt

[VanillaSkies]

22 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

@Olive @Gavin Feng @firedeep Any of you can confirm this?

 

If Monday is indeed a holiday then yes, Sunday can expect a smaller drop than 50%. I believe us here were under the impression that Sunday-Tuesday were all workdays?

 

Sorry, I was pretty certain that was from this thread as well. 

I must have got my days mixed up for the holiday. Apologies!

 

I was going by this site which posts national Chinese holidays
https://ltl-school.com/chinese-national-holidays/

 

For the following dates in 2019, Saturdays or Sundays are moved to a work day, so the work day is off and the weekend day becomes a work day.

• *  31st of December 2018 (Sunday) is moved to January 1st 2019 (Monday)
• ** 2nd of February (Saturday) and 16th of February (Saturday) are moved to 7th (Thursday) and 8th (Friday) of February
• *** April 27th (Saturday) and 28th (Sunday) are moved to April 29th (Monday) and April 30th (Tuesday)

 

Would that not mean that Monday/Tuesday are the days off, leading the the May 1st holiday? That's how I interpret.
But obviously the members here from China would have a better understanding than I. Can someone explain?

Edited April 19, 2019 by VanillaSkies

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, pepsa said:

I don't want to be a party pooper but I think Thursday is going to drop harder than 40%, ps are down a lot and Friday presales are already a lot bigger than those on Thursday so I would give Thursday a bigger drop and friday a higher jump.

I have it dropping a little more. AoU with an 8.6 rating dropped 33%

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

I agree. I also think Sunday won't drop softer than 50%. Being effectively a Monday, and having so much demand burnt off already, I see it dropping more. 

 

Personally, I still can't see it going over $250m 5-day.

Its like a summer monday. 50% drop is typical for a workday sunday

 

Path to 300m

I argued for low $200s  OW on FF8 and mid $200s OW for IW, but got got burned by a lower than expected PSm each time.

I'm not going to be safe and say 250m this time, that's not my style if the numbers show otherwise, because i'm pulling the reigns in on the metrics and looking at it from different angles and well....I get $302m OW, predicated on 200k shows and a 9+ rating

 

1. FF8 made 50% of its BO on OW.  IW made 54%.  With increased ticket prices IW would be over $400m, its possible it could make 75%($300m) of that in the in its first 5 days even if the fan base doesn't expand.  AoU made 65% of its total BO in its 6 day open. MN PS is proof of the rush factor 

 

2. An SH's PS typically increases over 300% in its last 4 days of PS.  A PS saturated IW increased 150%.  I'm going with a super saturated MH2, it increased just 84% from 160m to 295m.  PS today is 138m x 84% = 254m.  There is room for improvement.

 

3. FF8 PSm was an unexpected 2.52, then IW was just 2.13x.  I am going with MH2's 1.86 PSm.  AEG's could be higher because MH2 had a super high PTA and walkups had slim pickens to choose from. Again room for improvement.

 

4. It will need to make 100% more than AOU to get to $300m.  The 5 day will have 102% more shows than AoU's 6 days, .  PTA does not need to increase and the fan base is there as noted in point #1. XR is 8% weaker but the ATP increase will cover that. I applied weaker holds and bumps than AoU do to the calender and frontload.

 

5. A blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.  But keep your floor at 250m just in case something goes awry.

 

I'm going with 302m.  

 

What are the experts saying? Someone tweet Grace Randolph and let her laugh again. When I'm right she can make me a sandwich!

 

	EG							IW
PS	MN	%gain	OD	gain	% gain	Shows		MN	%gain	OD	gain	%gain	Shows
Th
Fri										0.4			6.5
Sa										1.3	0.9	202.3%	11.0
Su										2.0	0.7	53.8%	16.0
Mo										3.3	1.3	62.5%	22.0
Tu										4.6	1.4	41.5%	27.9
We								5.6		8.5	3.9	84.8%	44.4
Th								7.8	14.0%	14.6	6.1	71.8%	54.6
Fr	53.5		37.2	37.2		90.0		9.0	14.7%	18.5	3.9	26.5%	59.2
Sa	66.0	23.4%	65.7	28.5	76.6%	120.0		10.1	13.2%	22.3	3.8	20.7%	63.0
Su	80.0	21.2%	79.2	13.5	20.5%	130.0		11.0	8.5%	25.6	3.3	14.6%	66.0
Mo	82.0	2.5%	92.0	12.8	16.2%	135.2		11.9	8.2%	29.0	3.4	13.5%	69.7
Tu	84.9	3.5%	102.5	10.5	11.4%	141.5		12.8	7.6%	33.7	4.7	16.2%	72.8
We	93.5	10.1%	113.0	10.5	10.2%	146.0		15.0	17.2%	43.1	9.4	27.9%	79.7
Th	104.4	11.7%	126.5	13.5	11.9%	153.4		16.6	10.7%	50.4	7.3	16.9%	86.9
Fr	110.0	5.4%	138.0	11.5	9.1%	160.0		17.9	7.8%	58.2	7.8	15.5%	93.1
Sa	116.0	5.5%	154.0	16.0	11.6%	167.0		19.3	7.8%	65.8	7.6	13.1%	97.0
Su	122.0	5.2%	170.0	16.0	10.4%	172.0		20.9	8.3%	75.3	9.5	14.4%	100.5
Mo	130.0	6.6%	195.0	25.0	14.7%	178.0		22.8	9.1%	88.9	13.6	18.1%	112.8
Tu	160.0	23.1%	254.0	59.0	30.3%	195.0		25.8	13.2%	107.4	18.5	20.8%	133.6
We								30.6	18.6%	129.0	21.6	20.1%	154.6
Th								59.5	94.4%	182.0	53.0	41.1%	178.0
OD BO	160.0		473.0		86.2%	200.0		59.5		387.0		112.6%	182.0
Multi					1.86							2.13
				3day	5day				3 day	5day
	PS m	OD	OD m	OW	OW	OW m	Total	OD $	OW $	OW$	Total $	XR
EG	1.86	473	2.64	1248	2013	2.64	3300	70	186	300	492	6.71
IW	2.12	387	3.28	1271	1463	1.88	2390	61	201	231	376	6.36

 

	AEG	9+??	Shows k	AoU	8.6 rating	Shows k
				30		8
Th	165		35	186		81
W	473		200	125	-32.8%	82
Th	265	-44.0%	190	92	-26.4%	82
F	345	30.2%	210	126	37.0%	81
S	518	50.1%	210	238	88.9%	84
S	258	-50.2%	200	169	-29.0%	83
Tot	2024		1045	966		501
$$	302			156

Edited April 19, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

I'm going with 302m.  

 

If it hits $300m in China OW, I’ll vote your way in 2020 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

I'm not going to be safe and say 250m this time, that's not my style

*goosebumps*

[Stewart]

@Charlie Jatinder @VenomXXR

On 5/14/2018 at 3:12 AM, Olive said:

Actuals put IW OW over $200M, confirmed!

It appears you are correct. 

 

I just read like 40 pages of the China thread from IW's OW trying to understand my confusion. From about here:

 

It was the fact that Maoyan at the end of the day was touch-and-go $200m, with it coming down to the last couple hours. Honestly some of the most fun tracking we've had on here. Then the official estimate put it at $200.3m, which meant it could go either way until Olive confirmed the actuals above.

 

However, my point still stands that presales (and even after opening day) people here were saying $200m is "certain" and that $230m+ was "likely". That's why I (and a few others on here, as we were back then) are more cautious and not calling $250m a "floor" when China is very unpredictable and can do very different things to what even presales suggest. 

 

Does this mean something like $300m is out of reach? Absolutely not, it's entirely possible.

Does this mean it'll definitely gross below $250m? Absolutely not, it means it's entirely possible.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN????

 

Basically, due to the volatility of the market, I wouldn't put the floor at $250m. Something like $200m is obviously a definite floor. But the point of a floor is that it's a dead cert to happen. My point is that last year $200m was the "floor" advertised to most (especially those not familiar with CBO) when it was definitely not a certainty, as displayed by the thread last year as numbers rolled in.

 

Overall, feel free to predict that $250m, or even $270m or whatever is likely based on data, but 250m is certainly not a floor.

 

Sorry for ranting  

[hellnekom]

4.28-4.30 workday

5.1-5.4 holiday

5.5 workday

 

This is the latest，that one is old.

 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, feasby007 said:

Sorry for ranting 

 

No worries my friend  

 

I wouldn’t put $250m as the “floor” either, because anything can happen. I’d say the true floor is 10% over IW in USD. That would be $220m. Presales indicate that even if this is an 8 on Maoyan, it should be able to hit that number.

[Stewart]

7 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

I'm not going to be safe and say 250m this time, that's not my style if the numbers show otherwise, because i'm pulling the reigns in on the metrics and looking at it from different angles and well....I get $302m OW, predicated on 200k shows and a 9+ rating

Good extrapolation, though I'm sure many others here agree you're known for your sometimes being optimistic

 

Me, @pepsa, @terrestrial and at least one other (I think it's Fabio or Fmpro, I can't remember) are usually more pessimistic as don't want to be disappointed when a monstrous weekend shows up  

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

I have it dropping a little more. AoU with an 8.6 rating dropped 33%

Its like a summer monday. 50% drop is typical for a workday sunday

 

Path to 300m

I argued for low $200s  OW on FF8 and mid $200s OW for IW, but got got burned by a lower than expected PSm each time.

I'm not going to be safe and say 250m this time, that's not my style if the numbers show otherwise, because i'm pulling the reigns in on the metrics and looking at it from different angles and well....I get $302m OW, predicated on 200k shows and a 9+ rating

 

1. FF8 made 50% of its BO on OW.  IW made 54%.  With increased ticket prices IW would be over $400m, its possible it could make 75%($300m) of that in the in its first 5 days even if the fan base doesn't expand.  AoU made 65% of its total BO in its 6 day open. MN PS is proof of the rush factor 

 

2. An SH's PS typically increases over 300% in its last 4 days of PS.  A PS saturated IW increased 150%.  I'm going with a super saturated MH2, it increased just 84% from 160m to 295m.  PS today is 138m x 84% = 254m.  There is room for improvement.

 

3. FF8 PSm was an unexpected 2.52, then IW was just 2.13x.  I am going with MH2's 1.86 PSm.  AEG's could be higher because MH2 had a super high PTA and walkups had slim pickens to choose from. Again room for improvement.

 

4. It will need to make 100% more than AOU to get to $300m.  The 5 day will have 102% more shows than AoU's 6 days, .  PTA does not need to increase and the fan base is there as noted in point #1. XR is 8% weaker but the ATP increase will cover that. I applied weaker holds and bumps than AoU do to the calender and frontload.

 

5. A blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.  But keep your floor at 250m just in case something goes awry.

 

I'm going with 302m.  

 

What are the experts saying? Someone tweet Grace Randolph and let her laugh again. When I'm right she can make me a sandwich!

 

	EG							IW
PS	MN	%gain	OD	gain	% gain	Shows		MN	%gain	OD	gain	%gain	Shows
Th
Fri										0.4			6.5
Sa										1.3	0.9	202.3%	11.0
Su										2.0	0.7	53.8%	16.0
Mo										3.3	1.3	62.5%	22.0
Tu										4.6	1.4	41.5%	27.9
We								5.6		8.5	3.9	84.8%	44.4
Th								7.8	14.0%	14.6	6.1	71.8%	54.6
Fr	53.5		37.2	37.2		90.0		9.0	14.7%	18.5	3.9	26.5%	59.2
Sa	66.0	23.4%	65.7	28.5	76.6%	120.0		10.1	13.2%	22.3	3.8	20.7%	63.0
Su	80.0	21.2%	79.2	13.5	20.5%	130.0		11.0	8.5%	25.6	3.3	14.6%	66.0
Mo	82.0	2.5%	92.0	12.8	16.2%	135.2		11.9	8.2%	29.0	3.4	13.5%	69.7
Tu	84.9	3.5%	102.5	10.5	11.4%	141.5		12.8	7.6%	33.7	4.7	16.2%	72.8
We	93.5	10.1%	113.0	10.5	10.2%	146.0		15.0	17.2%	43.1	9.4	27.9%	79.7
Th	104.4	11.7%	126.5	13.5	11.9%	153.4		16.6	10.7%	50.4	7.3	16.9%	86.9
Fr	110.0	5.4%	138.0	11.5	9.1%	160.0		17.9	7.8%	58.2	7.8	15.5%	93.1
Sa	116.0	5.5%	154.0	16.0	11.6%	167.0		19.3	7.8%	65.8	7.6	13.1%	97.0
Su	122.0	5.2%	170.0	16.0	10.4%	172.0		20.9	8.3%	75.3	9.5	14.4%	100.5
Mo	130.0	6.6%	195.0	25.0	14.7%	178.0		22.8	9.1%	88.9	13.6	18.1%	112.8
Tu	160.0	23.1%	254.0	59.0	30.3%	195.0		25.8	13.2%	107.4	18.5	20.8%	133.6
We								30.6	18.6%	129.0	21.6	20.1%	154.6
Th								59.5	94.4%	182.0	53.0	41.1%	178.0
OD BO	160.0		473.0		86.2%	200.0		59.5		387.0		112.6%	182.0
Multi					1.86							2.13
				3day	5day				3 day	5day
	PS m	OD	OD m	OW	OW	OW m	Total	OD $	OW $	OW$	Total $	XR
EG	1.86	473	2.64	1248	2013	2.64	3300	70	186	300	492	6.71
IW	2.12	387	3.28	1271	1463	1.88	2390	61	201	231	376	6.36

 

	AEG	9+??	Shows k	AoU	8.6 rating	Shows k
				30		8
Th	165		35	186		81
W	473		200	125	-32.8%	82
Th	265	-44.0%	190	92	-26.4%	82
F	345	30.2%	210	126	37.0%	81
S	518	50.1%	210	238	88.9%	84
S	258	-50.2%	200	169	-29.0%	83
Tot	2024		1045	966		501
$$	302			156

go big or go home. I will go bit lower with Thursday drop but OD higher than Saturday.

[VanillaSkies]

3 minutes ago, hellnekom said:

4.28-4.30 workday

5.1-5.4 holiday

5.5 workday

 

This is the latest，that one is old.

 

My apologies!
I didn't realize it was changed. Here in NA, our holidays are set in stone, so I'm not used to these fluctuating weekend days! 😊

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

@Charlie Jatinder @VenomXXR

It appears you are correct. 

 

I just read like 40 pages of the China thread from IW's OW trying to understand my confusion. From about here:

 

It was the fact that Maoyan at the end of the day was touch-and-go $200m, with it coming down to the last couple hours. Honestly some of the most fun tracking we've had on here. Then the official estimate put it at $200.3m, which meant it could go either way until Olive confirmed the actuals above.

 

However, my point still stands that presales (and even after opening day) people here were saying $200m is "certain" and that $230m+ was "likely". That's why I (and a few others on here, as we were back then) are more cautious and not calling $250m a "floor" when China is very unpredictable and can do very different things to what even presales suggest. 

 

Does this mean something like $300m is out of reach? Absolutely not, it's entirely possible.

Does this mean it'll definitely gross below $250m? Absolutely not, it means it's entirely possible.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN????

 

Basically, due to the volatility of the market, I wouldn't put the floor at $250m. Something like $200m is obviously a definite floor. But the point of a floor is that it's a dead cert to happen. My point is that last year $200m was the "floor" advertised to most (especially those not familiar with CBO) when it was definitely not a certainty, as displayed by the thread last year as numbers rolled in.

 

Overall, feel free to predict that $250m, or even $270m or whatever is likely based on data, but 250m is certainly not a floor.

 

Sorry for ranting  

I usually do daily charts for biggies using daily exchange rate. Be my guest.

http://bit.ly/itsjatchina

[POTUS 2020]

2 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

My point is that last year $200m was the "floor" advertised to most (especially those not familiar with CBO) when it was definitely not a certainty, as displayed by the thread last year as numbers rolled in.

It was our floor and it landed like a glider right on it.

The "experts" were at $135m and grace with birds nest hair laughed at 200m.

Our floor was correct, the experts would have been dead on if they added 50% to their predictions

[POTUS 2020]

4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

No worries my friend  

 

I wouldn’t put $250m as the “floor” either, because anything can happen. I’d say the true floor is 10% over IW in USD. That would be $220m. Presales indicate that even if this is an 8 on Maoyan, it should be able to hit that number.

10% over IW's first 5 days, Fri-Tues, is 250m

[Olive]

EG opening Sat PS is still 10M ahead of IW's. 

Day 4 vs Day 2

[Stewart]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

I usually do daily charts for biggies using daily exchange rate. Be my guest.

http://bit.ly/itsjatchina

I know you do, I just decided to trust my memory - a mistake I guess!

 

Just now, POTUS 2020 said:

It was our floor and it landed like a glider right on it.

The "experts" were at $135m and grace with birds nest hair laughed at 200m.

Our floor was correct, the experts would have been dead on if they added 50% to their predictions

But the point is a floor shouldn't be something you just barely glide onto! 

 

And any "experts" that were predicting $135m were delusional, and grace is full of shit so let's not even mention her.

 

I was simply referring to the actual experts we have here in this forum. I worry that those visitors who aren't familiar may use the "250m floor" or even "300m prediction" against us, setting people us for disappointment.

[POTUS 2020]

5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

go big or go home. I will go bit lower with Thursday drop but OD higher than Saturday.

Saturday was bigger than OD for AoU with an extra weekday in between.  I dont think the sunday workday will affect saturday nite that much

[Fake]

Previously was thinking around 1750 ($260M), but looking at the strength and trends of presales, I am now thinking a bit higher.

 

Mid: 150M

Wed: 450M

Thu: 250M

Fri: 350M

Sat: 450M

Sun: 200M

 

Total: 1850M

 

For the following week I'd expect something like:

 

Mon: 100M

Tue: 125M

Wed: 250M

Thu: 150M

Fri: 150M

Sat: 100M

Sun: 50M

 

Total: 900-950M

 

3B+ finish.

 

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

10% over IW's first 5 days, Fri-Tues, is 250m

True but it also had 2 non-working days vs 1 for EG.

 

So maybe I should say the floor is IW 5-day @ $230m