Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Right about $1.1b

 

 

1.12 or so, those extra 20M are a real PITA for trying to make Endgame OW over it happen.

[Tokugennumataka]

I am a newb here. Just downloaded Maoyan app. Can anyone explain how to track total presales for EG? The app is entirely Chinese. 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Tokugennumataka said:

I am a newb here. Just downloaded Maoyan app. Can anyone explain how to track total presales for EG? The app is entirely Chinese. 

 

Not sure about the app layout, but here is the website. The total is on the lower left, current number is 42332 which means ¥423.32m total

 

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/248172

[Nero]

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

Good extrapolation, though I'm sure many others here agree you're known for your sometimes being optimistic

 

Me, @pepsa, @terrestrial and at least one other (I think it's Fabio or Fmpro, I can't remember) are usually more pessimistic as don't want to be disappointed when a monstrous weekend shows up  

Oh Fabio tops the pessimistic list. He is the current record holder worldwide 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

I am a newb here. Just downloaded Maoyan app. Can anyone explain how to track total presales for EG? The app is entirely Chinese. 

lol I almost forget that I am supposed to make a report. Thanks for mentioning the word "app".

 

Check the recommended post at the top.

Edited April 19, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Nero said:

Oh Fabio tops the pessimistic list. He is the current record holder worldwide 

I thought it was Fabio! 

 

For some reason I always get him and fmpro mixed up  

 

But yeah, I remember when the China thread used to consist primarily of Fabio the pessimist, POTUS the optimist and Olive the realist 😂

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

Good extrapolation, though I'm sure many others here agree you're known for your sometimes being optimistic

Me, @pepsa, @terrestrial and at least one other (I think it's Fabio or Fmpro, I can't remember) are usually more pessimistic as don't want to be disappointed when a monstrous weekend shows up  

I am never pessimistic nor optimistic, I neither predict nor belief into any prediction, only into finals.

 

But I have seen too many fights all over the www including with screen-shots taken at BOT as proof / disproof for very twisted POVs.

Trolls loooove over-/under estimates a lot. I think I've seen some even before I joined here.

 

Nothing new, even long before the www some ppl did that, but they had not as much impact as especially BO was in the '70 / '80 way more difficult (and waaayyy later released BO per weekend... details) to follow, the outlets weren't on the 'click-bait train,... way more reserved reporting style.

 

Might be one of the reason I still look out for finals, but its also not in my 'nature' to bet and so on.

 

I go through all the threads for collecting impressions, clarifier,... look for ex-change rates, quality of translations,... for the whys / reasons the let to a final ww, and what else a movie's background might influence its financial evaluation - like extra money they have to pay as bonus, tax rebates they can get,... other forms of income, reasons a movie might getting made for. Like why did a toy producer buy Marvel then and why did they start making movies? For them it was also about the movie making money, but the TV-series,... all were in certain POVs big advertising for their toys they want to sell.

 

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

....But the point is a floor shouldn't be something you just barely glide onto!

....

I was simply referring to the actual experts we have here in this forum. I worry that those visitors who aren't familiar may use the "250m floor" or even "300m prediction" against us, setting people us for disappointment.

that should be only reached, if the WoM is unexpected meh to bad, with a good to high rating it should not end  near that, if it is near, the floor was not the correct assumed floor in my POV

 

that is the main reason, why I so often point it out, see also the other marked text

Its not also those, how often have even seasoned member afterwards told, they feel down beside their brain says they should be celebrating, bcs the let themselves push to too high hopes?

And then we have for weeks the snide of the anti-CBM members that loooove to poke and poke, starting anew not needed 'discussions' Uggh

 

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

Nothing against you either, your tracking for OS generally (as well as NA numbers) are fantastic  

It's just that, sometimes, I feel you're a little too optimistic in your lower bounds. I just don't like giving visitors to this thread (and others) who are just looking for the numbers false impressions.

Again, fully agree, love Charlie's enthusiasm, his work is incredible, but sometimes.... youthful optimistic appearing

[charlie Jatinder]

Avengers: Endgame T-4 days

Midnight: ¥109.2mn (29k shows) (+5%)
Wednesday: ¥138.5mn (161k shows) (+9%)
Thursday: ¥36.2mn (119k shows) (+15%)
Friday: ¥49mn (109k shows) (+16%)
Saturday: ¥62mn (100k shows) (+20%)
Sunday: ¥15.5mn (83k shows) (+15%)


Total: ¥410.4mn or $61mn (+11%)

Comp
http://bit.ly/ChinaPreSale

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

---snip---

Beautifully said  

 

The bit you mentioned responding to my red, about how a floor shouldn't be a floor if it makes it there with good WOM is something I forgot to consider. 

 

Given IW had good WOM, it should not have just glided onto the "floor".

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

True but it also had 2 non-working days vs 1 for EG.

 

So maybe I should say the floor is IW 5-day @ $230m  

ok, i'll see you and raise you

With an OD Wed it effectively has two fridays.  Thursday and Sunday will be like summer weekdays(50% stronger than normal weekdays) and Saturday will be like a summer sunday(just 10% less than a normal Saturday) This combination takes down a normal Friday thru Tuesday that IW had

@fmpro you've been quiet

 

Edited April 19, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

ok, i'll see you and raise you

With an OD Wed it effectively has two fridays.  Thursday and Sunday will be like summer weekdays(50% stronger than normal weekdays) and Saturday will be like a summer sunday(just 10% less than a normal Saturday) This combination takes down a normal Friday thru Tuesday that IW had

@fmpro you've been quiet

 

 

I defer to your knowledge of the market. However, I got sucked in on the IW over $240m OW train and was disappointed by $200m! So I’m not gonna allow that to happen to me again 

 

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

It is looking like China, however briefly it may be, will hold the highest opening weekend for a single territory for the first time in its history. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

It is looking like China, however briefly it may be, will hold the highest opening weekend for a single territory for the first time in its history. 

 A:EG won't break weekend (FSS) record in China.

[POTUS 2020]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

 A:EG won't break weekend (FSS) record in China.

Deadline will report the 5 day as an OW so effectively it will hold the WW title, but not really

But then again domestic OW's include a 60% thursday

Edited April 19, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[john2000]

Just now, POTUS 2020 said:

Deadline will report the 5 day as an OW so effectively it will hold the WW title, but not really

bc it will open  for 5 days ? so if say we had a normal weekend like iw 3 days  eg would break the record ?

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Deadline will report the 5 day as an OW so effectively it will hold the WW title, but not really

In that case, The wandering Earth already has that record.

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

 A:EG won't break weekend (FSS) record in China.

so FSS will be around 150 ? probably ?

[XXR vs XXR]

Endgame Maoyan WTS @ 1.730m

 

Picked up about 29k from the same time yesterday, which is a 50% increase from the previous 24 hours. Might start picking back up for that final push to 2m.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

so FSS will be around 150 ? probably ?

Yeah. $140-145mn.

[john2000]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah. $140-145mn.

that would be bc it will be 5 days ? or else if it was 3 days it could break iw ow ?