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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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3 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Re non-holiday thing.

6 years ago, Dhoom:3 released in India and everyone was like the buzz is huge and all but since its releasing on non-holiday, it won't be able to cross the opening day record. I was in same group of people, more so because I don't like Aamir Khan and Chennai Express held the opening records.

 

But by the time Monday before release came, I was fucking sure of OD record. That film created OD record on a Non-Holiday in India and then OW record and eventually record grosser of all time.

 

What I am saying, when there is demand and film is good, you don't really need Holiday. It's not that you gonna face capacity problem, as all Endgame needs is 40% occupancy and it will hit ¥550-575mn on 220k shows. For ¥450mn, it only needs 30%.

 

A:IW day wise occupancy

Previews: 51%

Friday: 40%

Saturday: 48%

Sunday: 32%

Dhoom 3 wasn't good tho

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My Prediction/Projection for Avengers: Endgame

 

 

 

Age of Ultron

Infinity War

Endgame

Monday

¥30

         

Tuesday

¥186

     

¥160

 

Wednesday

¥125

-32.73%

   

¥460

 

Thursday

¥92

-26.69%

¥60

 

¥276

-40.00%

Friday

¥126

37.57%

¥387

 

¥331

20.00%

Saturday

¥238

89.05%

¥494

27.43%

¥414

25.00%

Sunday

¥170

-28.71%

¥332

-32.75%

¥207

-50.00%

Monday

¥45

-73.38%

¥109

-67.08%

¥93

-55.00%

Tuesday

¥40

-12.00%

¥81

-25.83%

¥88

-5.00%

Wednesday

¥49

23.76%

¥65

-19.79%

¥146

65.00%

Thursday

¥29

-41.61%

¥52

-19.57%

¥102

-30.00%

Friday

¥40

40.29%

¥72

37.50%

¥107

5.00%

Saturday

¥77

90.57%

¥142

97.99%

¥145

35.00%

Sunday

¥57

-26.24%

¥133

-6.88%

¥87

-40.00%

Monday

¥16

-72.52%

¥32

-76.10%

¥26

-70.00%

Tuesday

¥16

4.62%

¥25

-20.36%

¥22

-15.00%

Wednesday

¥11

-30.90%

¥21

-15.80%

¥19

-15.00%

Thursday

¥8

-26.80%

¥19

-12.28%

¥16

-15.00%

             

2 Weeks

¥1,355

 

¥2,023

 

¥2,700

 

Rest

¥109

 

¥367

 

¥225

 

Total

¥1,464

 

¥2,390

 

¥2,925

 

 

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3 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

My Prediction/Projection for Avengers: Endgame

 

 

 

Age of Ultron

Infinity War

Endgame

Monday

¥30

         

Tuesday

¥186

     

¥160

 

Wednesday

¥125

-32.73%

   

¥460

 

Thursday

¥92

-26.69%

¥60

 

¥276

-40.00%

Friday

¥126

37.57%

¥387

 

¥331

20.00%

Saturday

¥238

89.05%

¥494

27.43%

¥414

25.00%

Sunday

¥170

-28.71%

¥332

-32.75%

¥207

-50.00%

Monday

¥45

-73.38%

¥109

-67.08%

¥93

-55.00%

Tuesday

¥40

-12.00%

¥81

-25.83%

¥88

-5.00%

Wednesday

¥49

23.76%

¥65

-19.79%

¥146

65.00%

Thursday

¥29

-41.61%

¥52

-19.57%

¥102

-30.00%

Friday

¥40

40.29%

¥72

37.50%

¥107

5.00%

Saturday

¥77

90.57%

¥142

97.99%

¥145

35.00%

Sunday

¥57

-26.24%

¥133

-6.88%

¥87

-40.00%

Monday

¥16

-72.52%

¥32

-76.10%

¥26

-70.00%

Tuesday

¥16

4.62%

¥25

-20.36%

¥22

-15.00%

Wednesday

¥11

-30.90%

¥21

-15.80%

¥19

-15.00%

Thursday

¥8

-26.80%

¥19

-12.28%

¥16

-15.00%

             

2 Weeks

¥1,355

 

¥2,023

 

¥2,700

 

Rest

¥109

 

¥367

 

¥225

 

Total

¥1,464

 

¥2,390

 

¥2,925

 

 

Too low for May-day holiday (May 1-4), and May 1 will be highest day of 4, will sat will be lowest.

BTW, EG just broke midnights admissions record 

Edited by Olive
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8 minutes ago, Olive said:

Too low for May-day holiday (May 1-4), and May 1 will be highest day of 4, will sat will be lowest.

BTW, EG just broke midnights admissions record 

I think it will loss a lot of steam by then. If it is higher, as you say, will take your word, I don't see how it do less than ¥3Bn. Besides, you told me 1.5x OW shall be probable case, so I was thinking that may be you will say it is too high.:hahaha:

 

On that note, IMO holiday usually boost a day by 80-100% and using the normal trending, as in Infinity War, May 1st would have been ¥75mn Approx, if not for Holiday.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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35 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Is this for real? https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3007011/chinese-cinemas-showing-avengers-endgame-ordered-cap-service   

 

If so, I assume it will hurt ATP but help attendance — good or bad net effect in ¥?

I assume this means people will get refunds or is it not retroactive?  If so we could see the total decrease before it increases again.

 

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1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

I assume this means people will get refunds or is it not retroactive?  If so we could see the total decrease before it increases again.

 

However we know that Maoyan refuses to reduce numbers. Therefore we'd simply have hours and hours of freezing until adjusted numbers catchup.

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43 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Is this for real? https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3007011/chinese-cinemas-showing-avengers-endgame-ordered-cap-service   

 

If so, I assume it will hurt ATP but help attendance — good or bad net effect in ¥?

 

6 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I assume this means people will get refunds or is it not retroactive?  If so we could see the total decrease before it increases again.

 

only very small amount of theaters does that, not a big deal

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19 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Either Frozen again or today was the weakest day in pre-sales. So weak, ¥250mn is doubtful now.

? 250 for when ? what day ?  also really ? bc of one day it changes everything ? ok then hope its not frozen we will find soon enough

Edited by john2000
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1 minute ago, Menor said:

250 for OD. And I'm pretty sure it's not frozen because it's been going up, just very slow

od that means tuesday right ? even then why this should be a suprise ? you cant expect this movie to sell so well foverever when already had done what iw did in 7 days

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Just now, john2000 said:

od that means tuesday right ? even then why this should be a suprise ? you cant expect this movie to sell so well foverever when already had done what iw did in 7 days

Wednesday. And I think Charlie had accounted for that in his projections chart, but today will still come in well below what he predicted which is not great.

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