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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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36 minutes ago, Menor said:

It's weird because I would think they should increase, since people have more time to buy tickets.

Because its free time now, means planing for when to go with whom in which film usually has to be done earlier, so the aimed for ppl, time,.... all is/are available.

Clear the weekend for a little trip, go on a shopping spree, do sports, DIY,... you jump on short term / out of the ordinary projects way more focused. Plus often are surrounded by friends, families, doing things, why think about future endeavours at that time?

During the week you have e.g. your 'forced on' (needed, but sometimes inconvenient at which time of the day how long) breaks, no family wants something,... booking time. Or rush hour... aehm, stop and go crawling home or wherever you'll spend the time. booking time sitting (alone) in the car. Using the times alone for preparation for the together times

you are exhausted at home, had your meal, did your dishes,... evening films either already running, too late... or you squeeze even a screening in, but then usually another person has to have time and energy too, maybe doing some sport and groceries too - time to book short timed or shortly before falling into bed.

 

There are probably a lot of scenarios....

 

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12 hours ago, Menor said:

Do you have any idea why presales decrease on weekends in China? This happens in the USA too but I attributed it to inexact data collection

 

11 hours ago, Menor said:

It's weird because I would think they should increase, since people have more time to buy tickets.

I assume its because a large number of people are buying tickets to see a movie for the current weekend. They buy just one movie at a time? On weekdays there are more planners, on weekends more doers. Just a guess.

 

It looks like its picking up a little today. It should at 3 days out

@Olive, shows are at 172k for OD.  200k looks like is happening.  Do you have any intel that it mite be much higher?

 

Edited by POTUS 2020
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AEG midnights showtimes crossed 30k ,60% higher than previous record.

AEG OD PS pass FF8's final OD PS, with 50 hours to go.

AEG total PS reached 500M ,first movie ever to achieve this.

 

Maoyan's nonsense prediction

MN 188.33M

OD 546.15M (99% market share)

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8 minutes ago, Olive said:

AEG midnights showtimes crossed 30k ,60% higher than previous record.

AEG OD PS pass FF8's final OD PS, with 50 hours to go.

AEG total PS reached 500M ,first movie ever to achieve this.

 

Maoyan's nonsense prediction

MN 188.33M

OD 546.15M (99% market share)

 

1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said:

zero chance for both.

 

What about 170m MN and 480m OD?

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30 minutes ago, Olive said:

still optimistic, OD multipler(from PS) will be under 2.0

i think so too. dropped PSm to 1.86 to be safe

OD PS should match or beat IW's PS total tomorrow

 

PS pick up a bit from yesterday. should see a bigger bump tomorrow

I will have a fun table for all to use to project OD by the hour

  EG             IW          
PS MN %gain OD gain % gain Shows   MN %gain OD gain %gain Shows
Th                          
Fri                   0.4     6.5
Sa                   1.3 0.9 202.3% 11.0
Su                   2.0 0.7 53.8% 16.0
Mo                   3.3 1.3 62.5% 22.0
Tu                   4.6 1.4 41.5% 27.9
We               5.6   8.5 3.9 84.8% 44.4
Th               7.8 14.0% 14.6 6.1 71.8% 54.6
Fr 53.5   37.2 37.2   90.0   9.0 14.7% 18.5 3.9 26.5% 59.2
Sa 66.0 23.4% 65.7 28.5 76.6% 120.0   10.1 13.2% 22.3 3.8 20.7% 63.0
Su 80.0 21.2% 79.2 13.5 20.5% 130.0   11.0 8.5% 25.6 3.3 14.6% 66.0
Mo 82.0 2.5% 92.0 12.8 16.2% 135.2   11.9 8.2% 29.0 3.4 13.5% 69.7
Tu 84.9 3.5% 102.5 10.5 11.4% 141.5   12.8 7.6% 33.7 4.7 16.2% 72.8
We 93.5 10.1% 113.0 10.5 10.2% 146.0   15.0 17.2% 43.1 9.4 27.9% 79.7
Th 104.4 11.7% 126.5 13.5 11.9% 153.4   16.6 10.7% 50.4 7.3 16.9% 86.9
Fr 109.2 4.6% 138.5 12.0 9.5% 160.0   17.9 7.8% 58.2 7.8 15.5% 93.1
Sa 113.0 3.5% 148.0 9.5 6.9% 167.0   19.3 7.8% 65.8 7.6 13.1% 97.0
Su 117.5 4.0% 160.5 12.5 8.4% 172.5   20.9 8.3% 75.3 9.5 14.4% 100.5
Mo 128.0 8.9% 182.0 21.5 13.4% 180.0   22.8 9.1% 88.9 13.6 18.1% 112.8
Tu 165.0 28.9% 254.0 72.0 39.6% 195.0   25.8 13.2% 107.4 18.5 20.8% 133.6
We               30.6 18.6% 129.0 21.6 20.1% 154.6
Th               59.5 94.4% 182.0 53.0 41.1% 178.0
OD BO 165.0   473.0   86.2% 200.0   59.5   387.0   112.6% 182.0
Multi         1.86             2.13  
        3day 5day       3 day 5day      
  PS m OD OD m OW OW OW m Total OD $ OW $ OW$ Total $ XR  
EG 1.86 473 2.64 1248 2013 2.64 3300 70 186 300 492 6.71  
IW 2.12 387 3.28 1271 1463 1.88 2390 61 201 231 376 6.36  
Edited by POTUS 2020
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49 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

zero chance for both.

Indeed why are they predicting the near impossible?

 

Seems to me anything near 3 billion end total would be incredible. Anything above is just a big bonus.

Edited by cdsacken
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38 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Indeed why are they predicting the near impossible?

 

Seems to me anything near 3 billion end total would be incredible. Anything above is just a big bonus.

they are probably using last day MN increase and PSm from IW which needs to be lower

Edited by POTUS 2020
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12 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Indeed why are they predicting the near impossible?

 

Seems to me anything near 3 billion end total would be incredible. Anything above is just a big bonus.

I don't think they use manual prediction. Simply an alogrithm that do prediction.

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Avengers: Endgame T-2 days

Midnight: ¥117.6mn (30k shows) (+4%)
Wednesday: ¥160.7mn (173k shows) (+9%)
Thursday: ¥45.8mn (129k shows) (+14%)
Friday: ¥61.7mn (118k shows) (+13%)
Saturday: ¥78.8mn (109k shows) (+13%)
Sunday: ¥19.8mn (91k shows) (+12%)


Total: ¥484.4mn or $72mn (+9%)

Comp

http://bit.ly/ChinaPreSale

 

Another average day for OD gains with number of shows being already at saturated level hindering that big growth. An important day tomorrow, must match IW T-1 days number i.e. ¥21mn, else I see the pre-sales at ¥220mn and an OD around ¥400mn.

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On 4/20/2019 at 11:13 AM, Charlie Jatinder said:

My Prediction/Projection for Avengers: Endgame

 

 

 

Age of Ultron

Infinity War

Endgame

Monday

¥30

         

Tuesday

¥186

     

¥160

 

Wednesday

¥125

-32.73%

   

¥460

 

Thursday

¥92

-26.69%

¥60

 

¥276

-40.00%

Friday

¥126

37.57%

¥387

 

¥331

20.00%

Saturday

¥238

89.05%

¥494

27.43%

¥414

25.00%

Sunday

¥170

-28.71%

¥332

-32.75%

¥207

-50.00%

Monday

¥45

-73.38%

¥109

-67.08%

¥93

-55.00%

Tuesday

¥40

-12.00%

¥81

-25.83%

¥88

-5.00%

Wednesday

¥49

23.76%

¥65

-19.79%

¥146

65.00%

Thursday

¥29

-41.61%

¥52

-19.57%

¥102

-30.00%

Friday

¥40

40.29%

¥72

37.50%

¥107

5.00%

Saturday

¥77

90.57%

¥142

97.99%

¥145

35.00%

Sunday

¥57

-26.24%

¥133

-6.88%

¥87

-40.00%

Monday

¥16

-72.52%

¥32

-76.10%

¥26

-70.00%

Tuesday

¥16

4.62%

¥25

-20.36%

¥22

-15.00%

Wednesday

¥11

-30.90%

¥21

-15.80%

¥19

-15.00%

Thursday

¥8

-26.80%

¥19

-12.28%

¥16

-15.00%

             

2 Weeks

¥1,355

 

¥2,023

 

¥2,700

 

Rest

¥109

 

¥367

 

¥225

 

Total

¥1,464

 

¥2,390

 

¥2,925

 

 

Did you redo this yet?

Monday drop will be softer because its like a friday before the holiday.

Not sure how many shows it lose to all the new releases.  Tuesday may only bump 100%

Then standard 15% drops for wed and thur.

Then friday will be like a sunday with 30% drop

The numbers are going to be all over the place but I think they'll be at least in the high 100s maybe over 200 for theholiday

Edited by POTUS 2020
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