ZeeSoh Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 On 5/19/2019 at 11:26 PM, ZeeSoh said: Godzilla 2 (11 days out) Midnight - 745k OD - 2.80m (+7.69%)(46819 shows) Sat - 1.43m Sun - 1.30m I will have comps tomorrow. They also increased this coming Saturday’s previews again (upto 1400 showings). Aladdin OD PS - 665k (16889 shows)(4 days out) I dont know what to compare this to, but thinking 9-10m USD OW at this point. Godzilla 2 (10 days out) Midnight - 780k OD - 3.10m (+10.71%)(48696 shows) Sat - 1.48m Sun - 1.38m OD PS Midnight Sat PS Sun PS Show Count Final PS JW2 6.83m 1.21m 3.79m 2.47m 52958 60 MI6 4.76m 780k 1.6m 840k 36296 48.69 Godzilla 2 3.1m 780k 1.48m 1.38m 48696 Bumblebee 2.89m - - - 38593 26.9 DP 1.5m 168k 489k 345k 18579 29.93 Run rate has been slow for the past few days and reaching JW2's final PS seems unlikely. I think a finish somewhere in the low 40's final PS seems likely. From there an OW in the 70's is possible, maybe even 80's if WoM is good. The advance previews this coming weekend are likely having an effect though, without them I think OD PS would be much higher. The advance previews are upto nearly 1700 showings on Saturday and 170 on Sunday having sold nearly 2m Yuan worth of tickets. But if WoM is great from these showings then we will see PS accelerate in the last few days but if the WoM is lukewarm that will affect the opening. Still I assume WB/Legendary are confidant in the movie which is why they are having so many previews. Aladdin OD PS - 1.0m (26070 shows)(3 days out) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Question: Will those Preview earnings be counted into the OD in China or will they be separatly reported like in the US? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 40 minutes ago, Brainbug said: Question: Will those Preview earnings be counted into the OD in China or will they be separatly reported like in the US? No clue but I think they will be reported separately. In China generally the midnights are not rolled over into the OD like in US, at least we dont do that here on this forum, so I think the same will be the case with these previews. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 What Godzilla is making from previews is in the same level with what Aladdin is getting from opening weekend in advance ticket sale. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: What Godzilla is making from previews is in the same level with what Aladdin is getting from opening weekend in advance ticket sale. Is that good for Godzilla or just really bad for Aladdin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 32 minutes ago, Brainbug said: Is that good for Godzilla or just really bad for Aladdin? Forget it, it’s Chinatown. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 21 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Godzilla 2 (10 days out) Midnight - 780k OD - 3.10m (+10.71%)(48696 shows) Sat - 1.48m Sun - 1.38m. Aladdin OD PS - 1.0m (26070 shows)(3 days out) Godzilla 2 (9 days out) Midnight - 821k OD - 3.45m (+11.3%)(50521 shows) Sat - 1.60m Sun - 1.42m Aladdin OD PS - 1.63m (38554 shows)(2 days out) 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 I don’t see Zilla PS increase big until after previews. Unless all the preview shows are sold out. But if WOM is good, then increases after that could be huge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: I don’t see Zilla PS increase big until after previews. Unless all the preview shows are sold out. But if WOM is good, then increases after that could be huge. Yeah the next few days are gonna be slow due to the advance screenings taking a lot of that PS money. This unique situation is kind of making me wary of giving out any predictions this far out. If the advance screenings were not there then would they have instead gone to the OD? If yes then the OD PS would be quite high and would give me more confidence in predicting even higher OW than 70 which I did in my post from 2 days ago. But then if the WoM is not good from the previews then that will lower the opening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 47 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said: Yeah the next few days are gonna be slow due to the advance screenings taking a lot of that PS money. This unique situation is kind of making me wary of giving out any predictions this far out. If the advance screenings were not there then would they have instead gone to the OD? If yes then the OD PS would be quite high and would give me more confidence in predicting even higher OW than 70 which I did in my post from 2 days ago. But then if the WoM is not good from the previews then that will lower the opening. So its safe to say that we wont really have a good idea where it might be heading until a few days before the release? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 8 minutes ago, Brainbug said: So its safe to say that we wont really have a good idea where it might be heading until a few days before the release? I'm guessing we won't know until Monday (or maybe even Sunday) when WOM from the previews starts spreading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cookson Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Well how are Saturday and Sunday previews doing? Any info on those? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, Cookson said: Well how are Saturday and Sunday previews doing? Any info on those? Saturday - 2.75m PS Sunday - 0.23m PS (All in Yuan) Sunday seems to be really small as only 181 shows are there. Saturday looks huge. I wonder if it can double the numbers by saturday even if showcount dont change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Brainbug said: So its safe to say that we wont really have a good idea where it might be heading until a few days before the release? Yes. Movies having few previews before release is understandable but having these many showings makes the situation unique. Thanks to the number of showings, a huge amount of people will see the movie before opening so reviews will be more available and widespread and WoM (whether good or bad) will have a much bigger impact on OW. Generally we see that reception matters more to legs than the OW where pre release hype rules but in this case reception will affect the OW too imo. Kinda shows how confidant WB/Legendary are in the movie that they are doing this (and the social media reactions so far confirms their confidence). Edited May 21, 2019 by ZeeSoh 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Didn’t @Olive already confirmed it had good reactions during press screenings. @firedeep mentioned internal expectations of 2B Yuan run for Zilla !!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 22, 2019 Author Share Posted May 22, 2019 Saturday previews may hit 10M, quite big since IMAX/premium screens only and only one show per screen. 1 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tentatek Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Is there a reason why Aladdin is bombing this hard? I thought the story took place in China and Chinese people would be familiar with this and would be want to see it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tower Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 2 hours ago, Tentatek said: Is there a reason why Aladdin is bombing this hard? I thought the story took place in China and Chinese people would be familiar with this and would be want to see it? Aladin is based on an Arab story and has no relation to China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Aladdin 2 days out ¥1.62mn OD pre-sales. At same time, comparison with other films and probable OD with same PSm +68% Dumbo (¥21mn OD) -82% Beauty and the Beast (¥15mn OD) +13% Nutcrackers and Four Realms (¥26mn OD) I think Dumbo being middle ground of the two extremes and perhaps the best comp. What a flop. Ugh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaze Heatnix Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Any news about Dark Phoenix tracking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
