Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said:

$70M opening for Godzilla looks still safe at this point. Saturday is Children's Day, so increase could be better than usual. 

 

What Dark Phoenix is performing does not look optimistic. 

If Maoyan still disconnected from the Official BO system?

 

And could this be affecting the presale numbers we're seeing through Maoyan?

[Gavin Feng]

1 minute ago, Stewart said:

If Maoyan still disconnected from the Official BO system?

 

And could this be affecting the presale numbers we're seeing through Maoyan?

I think it's possible considering what happened on Aladdin.

 

If Godzilla would do far better than what we see now, it means we can expect higher than those numbers based on pre-sale for latter titles.

 

It's up to this weekend.

[lorddemaxus]

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, Stewart said:

If Maoyan still disconnected from the Official BO system?

 

And could this be affecting the presale numbers we're seeing through Maoyan?

Honestly, it could be. I have been looking at Godzilla OD presale numbers for the past 2-3 hours and it has barely moved.

[POTUS 2020]

GDZ PS going to 12.5m tonight, Probably 18m tomorrow and might reach mid 30s as expected.

DP's PSm (2.5) was the lowest I've ever seen for a non blockbuster.

If GDZ's PSm goes back to the norm, 3.5x, I get $55-60m

$70m or higher will need 4x PS and a 40% bump on Saturday

If the PSm comes in under 3, then we will see another unexpected sub $50m OW like SZM and DP

Prepare yourself accordingly

[keysersoze123]

Its not looking good for Zilla. That is probably the worst tuesday increase I remember seeing. Even with 70m(which looks unreachable at these numbers), its not hitting 1B yuan with a local film and DP opening next week.

 

I hope it pulls a rabbit out of hit this weekend.

[Cookson]

Will wait for zeesoh update myself. Talks of glitches possibly in the system followed by bomb posts don’t work together.

[lorddemaxus]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its not looking good for Zilla. That is probably the worst tuesday increase I remember seeing. Even with 70m(which looks unreachable at these numbers), its not hitting 1B yuan with a local film and DP opening next week.

 

I hope it pulls a rabbit out of hit this weekend.

70 mil isn't entirely unreachable. If it reaches 37 mil (I think it is possible), it will be able to do 65 mil with JW: FK (which is one of the most frontloaded monster movies) final PS to OD multiplier. I don't think Godzilla will be as frontloaded as JW: FK so low 70s should be possible.

[lorddemaxus]

13 minutes ago, Cookson said:

Will wait for zeesoh update myself. Talks of glitches possibly in the system followed by bomb posts don’t work together.

I'm pretty sure Zeesoh uses Maoyan as his source so if Maoyan numbers are inaccurate, Zeesoh's will be also.

[POTUS 2020]

59 minutes ago, Cookson said:

Will wait for zeesoh update myself. Talks of glitches possibly in the system followed by bomb posts don’t work together.

No bomb posts here.  30-35m was for a week and still is the PS target.  It went up 28% today. If a glitch is in play then maybe it would have gone up 35-40%.  Thats still 30-35m total.  But as Gavin said, it could be off either way.  DP OW came in much lower than expected, ALDN came in much higher.  Maoyan not reliable right now. We will have to see the run rate on Friday afternoon, and even that has been off

Edited May 28, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, Cookson said:

Will wait for zeesoh update myself. Talks of glitches possibly in the system followed by bomb posts don’t work together.

 

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm pretty sure Zeesoh uses Maoyan as his source so if Maoyan numbers are inaccurate, Zeesoh's will be also.

Yup if Maoyan is fucked up then my comparisons and projections will also be fucked up. It may take time for us to figure out the new system. 

 

As @POTUS 2020 pointed out in his above post, there are already signs that the system may not be working properly as predictions were off with DP and Aladdin. But then again they could simply have been outliers. 

 

Today’s jump is on the lower side though for Godzilla

Edited May 28, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[keysersoze123]

Yes. No one is saying it’s going to bomb. My expectations all along was around Kong numbers in China which was not un reasonable. @firedeep came and increased expectations even more( 2B Yuan). Relative to that its PS is not performing.

 

Even if Maoyon is off how off. They are the singe biggest PS seller( @Olive I hope its still true). So 10% or so won’t make a big difference.  

 

With summer being so busy it needs at least 600m yuan opening weekend to hit Kong numbers. So it at least needs 180m OD.  I think highest PS OD multi I remember for a big movie is 4.5 and for that Zilla needs 40m PS. Not impossible but we need to see some momentum.

[Olive]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Yes. No one is saying it’s going to bomb. My expectations all along was around Kong numbers in China which was not un reasonable. @firedeep came and increased expectations even more( 2B Yuan). Relative to that its PS is not performing.

 

Even if Maoyon is off how off. They are the singe biggest PS seller( @Olive I hope its still true). So 10% or so won’t make a big difference.  

 

With summer being so busy it needs at least 600m yuan opening weekend to hit Kong numbers. So it at least needs 180m OD.  I think highest PS OD multi I remember for a big movie is 4.5 and for that Zilla needs 40m PS. Not impossible but we need to see some momentum.

maoyan accounts for 55-60% I think, maybe a few percent off.

[ZeeSoh]

22 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Godzilla 2 (3 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.53m

OD - 9.77m (+32.2%)(75921 shows)

Sat - 4.30m

Sun - 1.87m

 

Dark Phoenix (9 days out)

 

Midnight - 495k

OD - 1.41m (34351 shows)

Fri - 572k

Sat - 354k

Sun - 243k

 

PS all around seems quite weak at this point, lower than most SH movies I have tracked except Shazam. If it was a normal 3 day opening I would say lower 50's opening, maybe even in the 40's. But its a 4 day opening and a holiday as well so the opening will be higher than that. Thinking somewhere in the 60's right now but it needs to accelerate to keep up. 

Godzilla 2 (2 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.83m

OD - 12.7m (+29.9%)(993112 shows)

Sat - 5.83m

Sun - 2.37m

 

Very weak increase today, one of the weakest I have seen barring the big movies like Infinity War and Jurassic World 2. Most of the movies increase in the range of mid to high 30's or even 40's 2 days out. Midnight/Sat/Sun PS are decent but more in the range of movies like Bumblebee, Alita, FB2. But far lower than movies like MI6, Venom, Aquaman, CM which would have indicated huge OW or breakout potential. One thing it has going for it is that it has been allocated a huge amount of shows already. Higher than most movies I have tracked with only Venom and the bigger movies ahead (IW, Endgame, JW2, etc).

 

Anyways trajectory would indicate low to mid 30's final PS. From there it could open anywhere from 47m (if it has the same PS to OW multi as Detective Pikachu) to 91m (if it has same PS to OW multi as Aquaman). A normal multi would lead to 61m OW. TBH I am feeling less confident in a 70m+ OW at this point, would say somewhere in the 60's is more likely. But with the Maoyan numbers no longer 100% reliable I could be wildly off. 

 

Gavin mentioned Saturday is Children's day so maybe that might help, although I do not see any extra bump in the Saturday PS relative to other movies. 

 

Dark Phoenix (8 days out)

 

Midnight - 569k

OD - 1.66m (+17.73%)(39307 shows)

Fri - 683k

Sat - 505k

Sun - 292k

 

Very weak presales so far for this. The numbers all around for each day is low. It's OD PS 8 days out is behind every superhero movie except Shazam. But it's a holiday and 4 day OW which makes guessing more difficult. But even with a 4 day OW I dont see much beyond 50's. 

[keysersoze123]

Zilla is headed for 800-900m than Kong level. I hope I am wrong.

 

50m OW for Dark Phoenix would be great. I don’t see it make more than 80m anyway. Problem for it would be sub 300m Yuan OW.  Cannot rule anything out until next week. Finger crossed and reviews are at least at Apocalypse level and Chinese audience like it.

[keysersoze123]

11PM Shanghai time and PS is at 16.72. Another mediocre day. if it misses 30m PS, even with breakout OD, 150m yuan at best and 500m OW. Most likely 120/400m OW and finish around 800m yuan. Its not terrible but as I said Kong numbers would have been nicer.

[efialtes76]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

11PM Shanghai time and PS is at 16.72. Another mediocre day. if it misses 30m PS, even with breakout OD, 150m yuan at best and 500m OW. Most likely 120/400m OW and finish around 800m yuan. Its not terrible but as I said Kong numbers would have been nicer.

Whitout the previews OD presales would be bigger. 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

Whitout the previews OD presales would be bigger. 

 

 

Correct. That is why I am expecting higher PS multi for OD. 5x is rare for a big opener(not sure if that has every happened. @POTUS 2020 to confirm). 4.5x has happened many times.

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Correct. That is why I am expecting higher PS multi for OD. 5x is rare for a big opener(not sure if that has every happened. @POTUS 2020 to confirm). 4.5x has happened many times.

5x has  happened just a couple of times.

If 2.5x can happen with DP, 5x could also happen.  Its all over the place

I assume $60-70m based solely on KK's performance

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

5x has  happened just a couple of times.

If 2.5x can happen with DP, 5x could also happen.  Its all over the place

I assume $60-70m based solely on KK's performance

Thank you. Which big movie had 5x PS? I know smaller movies break out huge and then continues to gain show count. But this wont play like that.

[ZeeSoh]

On 5/29/2019 at 12:52 AM, ZeeSoh said:

Godzilla 2 (2 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.83m

OD - 12.7m (+29.9%)(99312 shows)

Sat - 5.83m

Sun - 2.37m

 

Dark Phoenix (8 days out)

 

Midnight - 569k

OD - 1.66m (+17.73%)(39307 shows)

Fri - 683k

Sat - 505k

Sun - 292k

Godzilla 2 (1 days out)

 

Midnight - 2.70m

OD - 17.1m (+34.64%)(131597 shows)

Sat - 8.70m

Sun - 3.00m

 

Weak jump once again, weaker than most movies except the big ones. I dont see a huge increase tomorrow as well. Final PS will be close to 30, at max low 30's. If Maoyan system still works and it has a normal multiplier then the OW will be in the 50's. But with the advance screenings taking away some of the PS and with Maoyan numbers being off, projections could be wildly off. WoM in SK is OK at best and the numbers there are not great either. Douban ratings are also low but Maoyan is decent. So just to be safe in case the system is wonky, lets go with an OW somewhere in the 60's.

 

 

Dark Phoenix (7 days out)

 

Midnight - 734k

OD - 2.18m (+31.32%)(43927 shows)

Fri - 1.11m

Sat - 860k

Sun - 582k