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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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The Problem for Godzilla 2 is it isn't fun enough for GA, my audience at previews didn't burst a single reaction even though the kaiju fights are fantastic...

I personally think it's better than G2014, but don't feel like going a second time.

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its PS is moving very slowly. its after 1230PM and its still below 20m( at 19.35m). Can it even hit 30m PS.

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13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Thank you. Which big movie had 5x PS? I know smaller movies break out huge and then continues to gain show count. But this wont play like that.

I dont remember the movies

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

its PS is moving very slowly. its after 1230PM and its still below 20m( at 19.35m). Can it even hit 30m PS.

It should pick up this evening and get close 

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yes looking at 32m finish. Its not bad but underwhelming compared to where it started 2 weeks ago. Key thing now is PS OD multi. it needs at least 4.5x

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OD PS at 2.5m. So it looks like starting its release week around 3 to 3.5m. It has only 3 days of PS after that. I hope it at least hits 20m and has great PS to OD multi. I want 4 day gross close to 400m yuan.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/30/2019 at 1:54 AM, ZeeSoh said:

Godzilla 2 (1 days out)

 

Midnight - 2.70m

OD - 17.1m (+34.64%)(131597 shows)

Sat - 8.70m

Sun - 3.00m

 

Dark Phoenix (7 days out)

 

Midnight - 734k

OD - 2.18m (+31.32%)(43927 shows)

Fri - 1.11m

Sat - 860k

Sun - 582k

Godzilla 2 (Final)

 

OD - 32.12m (+87.83%)(169303 shows)

Sat - 14.42m

Sun - 4.36m

 

Decent increase on the final day. 

 

OD PS

Midnight

Sat PS

Sun PS

Show Count

JW2

60

13.63

26.27

11.90

154870

MI6

48.69

10.21

16.88

6.68

137067

Aquaman

35.04

8.96

18.37

8.39

156162

Alita

33.5

5.82

12.24

4.82

133160

Godzilla 2

32.12

9.13

14.42

4.36

169303

DP

29.93

2.96

12.09

3.96

114847

 

That show count is quite high, higher than even movies like Jurassic World 2 and Captain Marvel, behind only Infinity War and Endgame amongst movies I have tracked. If it under performs it wont be due to a lack of screens and shows. 

 

Midnight gross was very good as I posted some comparisons in the main thread. Saturday PS is decent too but not as high as some of the bigger movies (as well as most SH movies) on the chart above. I thought Saturday being Children's day might provide a PS bump but it doesnt look like anything significant. Sunday PS on the other hand is quite low on the level of smaller movies like DP and Alita rather than the big ones. Maybe Children's day did provide a PS bump for Saturday and perhaps without it Sat PS would have been on the lower side as well. Ratings have stabilized for now on Douban (6.9) and Maoyan (9.0). 

 

 

Godzilla 2’s OW with same PS to OW multi

Aquaman

580m

Bumblebee

484m

Alita

418m

Jurassic World 2

393m

Mission Impossible 6

328m

Detective Pikachu

296m

 

Range is quite wide from the 40's range if it follows DP to 85m if it follows Aquaman. We can rule out DP and Aquaman as Godzilla's ratings are not as bad as DP but neither as good as Aquaman. Opening I think should be in the 400 Yuan range. Currently thinking OW will be in the high 60's range, somewhere from 65-70m USD OW. Normal PS to OW multi will lead this to a 55-60m OW

 

I could be wildly off here though due to the fact that this already had big advance screenings which could have depressed the OW Ps. If that is the case then OW can go higher. Maoyan is also disconnected from official numbers so the old numbers and comparisons that I have may not work either. 

 

Dark Phoenix (6 days out)

 

Midnight - 867k

OD - 2.54m (+16.5%)(47404 shows)

Fri - 1.23m

Sat - 973k

Sun - 634k

 

PS continues to be very weak. Just slightly lower 6 days out than Shazam and lower than even Detective Pikachu. If it were not for the holiday and 4 day weekend this would have opened in the 40m range. 

Edited by ZeeSoh
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pretty weak pre-sale performance for Dark Phoenix.

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23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Dark Phoenix (6 days out)

 

Midnight - 867k

OD - 2.54m (+16.5%)(47404 shows)

Fri - 1.23m

Sat - 973k

Sun - 634k

 

PS continues to be very weak. Just slightly lower 6 days out than Shazam and lower than even Detective Pikachu. If it were not for the holiday and 4 day weekend this would have opened in the 40m range. 

Dark Phoenix (5 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.01m

OD - 3.12m (+26.37%)(50558 shows)

Fri - 1.55m

Sat - 1.14m

Sun - 768k

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6 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

pretty weak pre-sale performance for Dark Phoenix.

Is Chasing the Dragon 2 going to usurp it like what P Storm did with Shazam? 

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For the ones dont believe Zilla can make 70M OW in china.

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On 6/1/2019 at 1:25 AM, ZeeSoh said:

Dark Phoenix (5 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.01m

OD - 3.12m (+26.37%)(50558 shows)

Fri - 1.55m

Sat - 1.14m

Sun - 768k

Dark Phoenix (4 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.17m

OD - 3.80m (+21.79%)(53596 shows)

Fri - 1.84m

Sat - 1.25m

Sun - 1.00m

 

Presales continue to be poor, this would definitely have opened to low 40’s, maybe even in the 30’s if not for the holiday and 4 day OW. 

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20 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Dark Phoenix (4 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.17m

OD - 3.80m (+21.79%)(53596 shows)

Fri - 1.84m

Sat - 1.25m

Sun - 1.00m

 

Presales continue to be poor, this would definitely have opened to low 40’s, maybe even in the 30’s if not for the holiday and 4 day OW. 

Dark Phoenix (3 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.36m

OD - 4.71m (+23.94%)(58072 shows)

Fri - 2.31m

Sat - 1.39m

Sun - 1.11m

 

PS is just slightly ahead of Shazam, the only other SH movie with an OD PS close enough would be Thor Ragnarok from 2017. Every SH movie since then have had much bigger PS 3 days out. Even Detective Pikachu (6.83m), Bumblebee (7.75m) and Alita (8.88m) had much higher OD PS at this point. Direct comparison like the table with Godzilla is not possible due to the 4 day OW. If ratings are not good even the 4 day OW might be in the 40's region. If ratings are decent enough then a 4 day OW in the 50's seems possible. 

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6 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Dark Phoenix (3 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.36m

OD - 4.71m (+23.94%)(58072 shows)

Fri - 2.31m

Sat - 1.39m

Sun - 1.11m

 

PS is just slightly ahead of Shazam, the only other SH movie with an OD PS close enough would be Thor Ragnarok from 2017. Every SH movie since then have had much bigger PS 3 days out. Even Detective Pikachu (6.83m), Bumblebee (7.75m) and Alita (8.88m) had much higher OD PS at this point. Direct comparison like the table with Godzilla is not possible due to the 4 day OW. If ratings are not good even the 4 day OW might be in the 40's region. If ratings are decent enough then a 4 day OW in the 50's seems possible. 

ouch

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139% of Shazam (this film debuted with 205m)
103% of Ragnarok (362m)
85% of Guardians 2 (342m)
56% of Homecoming (462m)

53% of Aquaman (652m)
44% of Black Panther (422m)
28% of Captain Marvel (597m)

 

All these numbers tell me $45M for 4-day opening could be in danger...though I still believe $50-55M would happen.

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

139% of Shazam (this film debuted with 205m)
103% of Ragnarok (362m)
85% of Guardians 2 (342m)
56% of Homecoming (462m)

53% of Aquaman (652m)
44% of Black Panther (422m)
28% of Captain Marvel (597m)

 

All these numbers tell me $45M for 4-day opening could be in danger...though I still believe $50-55M would happen.

Seems like Disney doesn't really care for this film. Maybe they want the people to quickly forget that this ever existed so they can do the reboot quickly. It's like they're just reluctantly showing it in theaters because of contractual obligations.

Edited by UserHN
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3 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Seems like Disney doesn't really care for this film. Maybe they want the people to quickly forget that this ever existed so they can do the reboot quickly. It's like they're just reluctantly showing it in theaters because of contractual obligations.

What’s Disney gotta do with presales? They didn't make the movie or market it, they only got it like 2 months ago in their hands. How is it their fault if people couldnt care less about this franchise anymore and dont want to buy tickets? Gavin clearly mentioned in the China thread that Disney is not handling marketing in china for this. 

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