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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Headed to around 7.3-7.5 today based on movement so far. 40-45% increase, right in line with Charlie’s expectation for the day and pretty solid.   

I think perhaps 7.1-7.2 going by current pace. That will go around ¥60mn final PS, which will be same as Venom but lower than CM. That said, it will have bigger PSm from CM being a summer release, also we don't know for sure how PSm will behave with new Maoyan as seen in last few releases, getting 5-7x OD from PS, a ratio which was 4x in best cases.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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Posted (edited)
On 6/19/2019 at 4:03 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Show count just up to 50581 and PS to just under 5m. It will not maintain the pace that Charlie predicted in his google sheet. Will need to wait another day or 2 before we can judge where it will end. @POTUS 2020 what do you think?

Up 40% today.  That will calm down to 20-25% thru Sunday and then ramp up.

60m-ish in PS.  No idea for OD.  We've seen the PSm at 2.5(DP) to 6x(MiB) lately

Edited by POTUS 2020

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Posted (edited)

Spider-man: Far From Home 7 days Out

 

Midnight: ¥2.6mn (6.5k shows) (+¥0.65mn)

Friday: ¥7.2mn (56k shows) (+¥2mn)

Saturday: ¥3.2mn (34k shows) (+¥0.65mn)

Sunday: ¥2.1mn (29k shows) (+¥0.4mn)

 

Total: ¥15.1mn or $2.2mn

 

http://bit.ly/ChinaPreSale  

 

Still enroute ¥60mn pre-sales and shall open ¥220mn. Usually I would have gone with 2.75-3x PSm for an MCU film but, its a summer release and Maoyan ain't that accurate as it used to be. PSm have increased in last 1.5 months. So Expecting something around 3.25-4x multiple.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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9 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Headed to around 7.3-7.5 today based on movement so far. 40-45% increase, right in line with Charlie’s expectation for the day and pretty solid.   

 

6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I think perhaps 7.1-7.2 going by current pace. That will go around ¥60mn final PS, which will be same as Venom but lower than CM. That said, it will have bigger PSm from CM being a summer release, also we don't know for sure how PSm will behave with new Maoyan as seen in last few releases, getting 5-7x OD from PS, a ratio which was 4x in best cases.

00:00 ¥7.15m

 

Rest of day couldn’t quite maintain pace with the earlier hours, but a good result still. For now I’m thinking around 65x3.5 for OD, but as mentioned by everyone this page already PSm’s since Maoyan desynced with official BO app are a bit 🤷‍♂️

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10 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

 

00:00 ¥7.15m

 

Rest of day couldn’t quite maintain pace with the earlier hours, but a good result still. For now I’m thinking around 65x3.5 for OD, but as mentioned by everyone this page already PSm’s since Maoyan desynced with official BO app are a bit 🤷‍♂️

Will be ¥7.2mn approx in final count of Maoyan.

https://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/1198925/premierebox#1

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Been a bit jerky today. Barring unusual pickup heading a bit under 9m. Not bad exactly, but I would like to see it beat Jatinder’s trajectory at least one of the next few days 😛 

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SMFFH With 8.8 / 9.2 on mayoan should pass CM  but I hope he can beat civil war

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7 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

SMFFH With 8.8 / 9.2 on mayoan should pass CM  but I hope he can beat civil war

you mean for ow ?

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This is a MCU movie and sequel to a popular character movie. I doubt it will hit 3.5x PSM. It would be closer to 3.3. So a 60m ps would mean 200m OD. Anything lower we would have to adjust. But being summer I am expecting good multi of OW as summer weekdays have to be great. it should do > 2x with good WOM and summer days. Still 1.5B is in play.

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Spider-man: Far From Home 6 days Out

 

Midnight: ¥3.15mn (6.8k shows) (+¥0.55mn)

Friday: ¥9.15mn (61k shows) (+¥2mn)

Saturday: ¥3.95mn (36k shows) (+¥0.75mn)

Sunday: ¥2.4mn (32k shows) (+¥0.3mn)

 

Total: ¥18.65mn or $2.7mn

 

http://bit.ly/ChinaPreSale  

 

The next 2 days gonna be doing normal numbers, in fact next 3. The important time start from Tuesday and last days especially, which can make it ¥55mn or ¥65mn.

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On 6/20/2019 at 4:36 AM, ZeeSoh said:

Spiderman: Far From Home (8 days out)

 

Midnight - 2.00m

OD - 5.21 (+49.28%) (50965 shows)

Sat - 2.51m

Sun - 1.71m

Spiderman: Far From Home (6 days out)

 

Midnight - 3.17m

OD - 9.16 (+28.11%) (60785 shows)

Sat - 3.95m

Sun - 2.39m

 

Untitled.png

 

Decent increases so far, keeping pace with Venom and Aquaman. Should overtake Aquaman soon enough as it starts slowing down comparatively. In terms of show times, it is keeping up pace with all of these movies 5 days into the PS cycle. 

Midnight PS so far is very strong, strongest of all of these comparisons. Sat and Sun PS is keeping pace with Venom, but slightly behind CM and much behind Aquaman 5 days in. Movie is going to be quite frontloaded if the PS is anything to go by, so even if it opens to a high enough OD, its OD to OW multi will probably be relatively small. Still think heading to a PS around Venom area, reaching CM's final PS seems to be very difficult. 

 

Jump the next 2 days will be smaller as it is the weekend. 

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On 6/20/2019 at 2:44 PM, fabiopazzo2 said:

@ZeeSoh

75-80M is more likely?!

Still too early to tell, depends entirely on WOM and reception. But yeah 75-80m seems like a safe bet at this point. 

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Today is the first day I have hourly data for CM to compare to. Looking like high 10s to maybe just over 11, roughly +20%, exactly in line with expectations. I’ll edit in a final guess at 16:00 (16:00 is usually the halfway point for PS, though yesterday deviated from that).

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1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

Today is the first day I have hourly data for CM to compare to. Looking like high 10s to maybe just over 11, roughly +20%, exactly in line with expectations. I’ll edit in a final guess at 16:00 (16:00 is usually the halfway point for PS, though yesterday deviated from that).

Actually today seems like first day it will beat projection. Shall hit ¥11.2mn by Midnight.

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Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

Actually today seems like first day it will beat projection. Shall hit ¥11.2mn by Midnight.

Looks more like 11.0 to me atm, but hopefully reality tends more toward your number 😛 

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Just now, Thanos Legion said:

Looks more like 11.0 to me atm, but hopefully reality tends more toward your number 😛 

Yeah since you have CM hourly data so you have better idea but yesterday it added ¥1.3mn post 16:30 so I am hoping for that, as it was outpacing yesterday till now.

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah since you have CM hourly data so you have better idea but yesterday it added ¥1.3mn post 16:30 so I am hoping for that, as it was outpacing yesterday till now.

Yesterday the late day sales vs early was very strong, was happy when I woke up. If today repeats that can start to take it into account for FFH.      

 

For The Eternals and after will finally have a more decent set of MCU presale trajectories banked up, hopefully get things pretty fine tuned.   

 

Edit: 16:00 update. CM Sat/usual day would give 10.92. Yesterday 11.31. See how it settles in morning.

Edited by Thanos Legion
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1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Yesterday the late day sales vs early was very strong, was happy when I woke up. If today repeats that can start to take it into account for FFH.      

 

For The Eternals and after will finally have a more decent set of MCU presale trajectories banked up, hopefully get things pretty fine tuned.

Pre-sales hourly tracking.

 

Tracking Level - MCU.:hahaha:

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Spider-man: Far From Home 5 days Out

 

Midnight: ¥3.7mn (7k shows) (+¥0.55mn)

Friday: ¥11.1mn (65k shows) (+¥1.9mn)

Saturday: ¥4.75mn (39k shows) (+¥0.8mn)

Sunday: ¥2.7mn (33k shows) (+¥0.3mn)

 

Total: ¥22.25mn or $3.2mn

 

http://bit.ly/ChinaPreSale  

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