Legion Again Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 8 hours ago, Thanos Legion said: Edit: 16:00 update. CM Sat/usual day would give 10.92. Yesterday 11.31. See how it settles in morning. 50/50 mix then. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 ¥500M-plus debut for FFH. Can't see the chance of ¥600M or more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: ¥500M-plus debut for FFH. Can't see the chance of ¥600M or more. The plan is of ¥700mn. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Spiderman: Far From Home (6 days out) Midnight - 3.17m OD - 9.16 (+28.11%) (60785 shows) Sat - 3.95m Sun - 2.39m Decent increases so far, keeping pace with Venom and Aquaman. Should overtake Aquaman soon enough as it starts slowing down comparatively. In terms of show times, it is keeping up pace with all of these movies 5 days into the PS cycle. Midnight PS so far is very strong, strongest of all of these comparisons. Sat and Sun PS is keeping pace with Venom, but slightly behind CM and much behind Aquaman 5 days in. Movie is going to be quite frontloaded if the PS is anything to go by, so even if it opens to a high enough OD, its OD to OW multi will probably be relatively small. Still think heading to a PS around Venom area, reaching CM's final PS seems to be very difficult. Jump the next 2 days will be smaller as it is the weekend. Spiderman: Far From Home (5 days out) Midnight - 3.71m OD - 11.12 (+21.4%) (64815 shows) Sat - 4.74m Sun - 2.71m Normal increase today, slowed down a bit as is expected over the weekend. Tomorrow will see another relatively smaller increase. The above chart makes it look like CM is way ahead and even Aquaman is ahead of FFH and Venom but the chart above is for the first 5 days of the movies PS run regardless of how early or how late PS run started. This gives advantage to late starting movies like CM and Aquaman. This chart more closely reflects the situation right now. The X axis is days out from release. This table makes it clear that FFH is running way ahead of Aquaman (35m final PS) and BP (45m final PS) and even slightly ahead of Venom (60m final PS) and on par with CM (73m final PS). IF this trend holds true, FFH's final PS will be between CM and Venom. Although at this point I will err on side of caution and say final PS around Venom. 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeoC Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said: ¥500M-plus debut for FFH. Can't see the chance of ¥600M or more. Too low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 It’s not too farfetched to imagine 550, with the way PSm’s have been recently. Neither is it too hard to see 700 though, depending on the reception of FFH and Better Days. I’m content with the PS trajectory, which has so far been pretty predictable/expected. Will be a short wait til find out for real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 0.44mn today till now from Midnight compared to 0.29mn yesterday. As per projection, shall do ¥2.9mn today compared to ¥1.9mn yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 (edited) Time Spider-man: Far From Home Venom Gross Change Gross Change 12 Days Out ¥0.07 11 Days Out ¥0.11 ¥0.04 10 Days Out ¥1.03 ¥0.98 ¥0.87 9 Days Out ¥3.49 ¥2.47 ¥2.99 ¥2.01 8 Days Out ¥5.21 ¥1.72 ¥4.48 ¥1.49 7 Days Out ¥7.15 ¥1.94 ¥6.38 ¥1.90 6 Days Out ¥9.21 ¥2.06 ¥8.46 ¥2.08 5 Days Out ¥11.11 ¥1.90 ¥10.30 ¥1.84 4 Days Out ¥14.00 ¥2.89 ¥13.10 ¥2.80 3 Days Out ¥18.90 ¥4.89 ¥17.84 ¥4.74 2 Days Out ¥26.02 ¥7.12 ¥24.74 ¥6.90 1 Day Out ¥35.63 ¥9.61 ¥34.05 ¥9.31 Final ¥60.36 ¥24.72 ¥57.99 ¥23.94 Opening Day ¥211.24 ¥223.38 PSm 3.50 3.85 Edited June 23, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 I still don’t understand the expectation beyond ¥600M debut. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 I’d take the under on ¥600, just crossing fingers for much better reception than first. Also I’m seeing a daily gain more in the ballpark of 2.4-2.5 atm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said: I still don’t understand the expectation beyond ¥600M debut. Captain Marvel had PS of ¥200mn OD as day 1 was basically Holiday and no bump on Day 2. Far From Home is having 200mn OD pre-sales just on its own. Its very likely to have bump on day two and sort of reaction we have read, 3rd act is supposed to be action one. If FFH open to 200; it is only logical to expect 250 on day 2 and 200 on day 3 or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 26 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Captain Marvel had PS of ¥200mn OD as day 1 was basically Holiday and no bump on Day 2. Far From Home is having 200mn OD pre-sales just on its own. Its very likely to have bump on day two and sort of reaction we have read, 3rd act is supposed to be action one. If FFH open to 200; it is only logical to expect 250 on day 2 and 200 on day 3 or so. plus, the story for ffh is more like a superhero story, and not an american highschool movie, so it will be easier to connect with the audience, and it has action throughout the movie, something that hc didnt have as much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 On 6/22/2019 at 10:06 PM, ZeeSoh said: Spiderman: Far From Home (5 days out) Midnight - 3.71m OD - 11.12 (+21.4%) (64815 shows) Sat - 4.74m Sun - 2.71m Normal increase today, slowed down a bit as is expected over the weekend. Tomorrow will see another relatively smaller increase. The above chart makes it look like CM is way ahead and even Aquaman is ahead of FFH and Venom but the chart above is for the first 5 days of the movies PS run regardless of how early or how late PS run started. This gives advantage to late starting movies like CM and Aquaman. This chart more closely reflects the situation right now. The X axis is days out from release. This table makes it clear that FFH is running way ahead of Aquaman (35m final PS) and BP (45m final PS) and even slightly ahead of Venom (60m final PS) and on par with CM (73m final PS). IF this trend holds true, FFH's final PS will be between CM and Venom. Although at this point I will err on side of caution and say final PS around Venom. Spiderman: Far From Home (4 days out) Midnight - 4.30m OD - 13.64 (+22.66%) (68812 shows) Sat - 5.62m Sun - 3.01m Normal jump today, still keeping pace with Venom's PS. Will start accelerating from tomorrow. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 surpassed by CM at the same point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 (edited) CM PS were great, FFH was going to fall behind sometime. Sat bump was meh though, still wondering if IWD played some role there. FFH seems headed for about 17.2 today, might be final OD PS of O/U 50. Edit: Seems to be a recurring thing now where FFH middle of day hours improve from morning. Maybe more like 17.6. Edited June 24, 2019 by Thanos Legion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: CM PS were great, FFH was going to fall behind sometime. Sat bump was meh though, still wondering if IWD played some role there. FFH seems headed for about 17.2 today, might be final OD PS of O/U 50. Better comp is Venom; yeah, of course, IWD played a role in CM OD pre-sales. Edited June 24, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 happy with ¥550M debut. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 I wonder if TLK can catch fire in China. I think the story should have a very broad appeal. I’m hoping for $250m+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 20 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: I wonder if TLK can catch fire in China. I think the story should have a very broad appeal. I’m hoping for $250m+ Yes, maybe over 300M but who know 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 9 hours ago, Thanos Legion said: CM PS were great, FFH was going to fall behind sometime. Sat bump was meh though, still wondering if IWD played some role there. FFH seems headed for about 17.2 today, might be final OD PS of O/U 50. Edit: Seems to be a recurring thing now where FFH middle of day hours improve from morning. Maybe more like 17.6. At 17.82 now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
