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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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8 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Edit: 16:00 update. CM Sat/usual day would give 10.92. Yesterday 11.31. See how it settles in morning.

50/50 mix then. 

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¥500M-plus debut for FFH. Can't see the chance of ¥600M or more.

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3 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

¥500M-plus debut for FFH. Can't see the chance of ¥600M or more.

The plan is of ¥700mn.

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23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Spiderman: Far From Home (6 days out)

 

Midnight - 3.17m

OD - 9.16 (+28.11%) (60785 shows)

Sat - 3.95m

Sun - 2.39m

 

Untitled.png

 

Decent increases so far, keeping pace with Venom and Aquaman. Should overtake Aquaman soon enough as it starts slowing down comparatively. In terms of show times, it is keeping up pace with all of these movies 5 days into the PS cycle. 

Midnight PS so far is very strong, strongest of all of these comparisons. Sat and Sun PS is keeping pace with Venom, but slightly behind CM and much behind Aquaman 5 days in. Movie is going to be quite frontloaded if the PS is anything to go by, so even if it opens to a high enough OD, its OD to OW multi will probably be relatively small. Still think heading to a PS around Venom area, reaching CM's final PS seems to be very difficult. 

 

Jump the next 2 days will be smaller as it is the weekend. 

Spiderman: Far From Home (5 days out)

 

Midnight - 3.71m

OD - 11.12 (+21.4%) (64815 shows)

Sat - 4.74m

Sun - 2.71m

 

Normal increase today, slowed down a bit as is expected over the weekend. Tomorrow will see another relatively smaller increase. 

The above chart makes it look like CM is way ahead and even Aquaman is ahead of FFH and Venom but the chart above is for the first 5 days of the movies PS run regardless of how early or how late PS run started. This gives advantage to late starting movies like CM and Aquaman. 

 

Untitled.png

 

This chart more closely reflects the situation right now. The X axis is days out from release. This table makes it clear that FFH is running way ahead of Aquaman (35m final PS) and BP (45m final PS) and even slightly ahead of Venom (60m final PS) and on par with CM (73m final PS). IF this trend holds true, FFH's final PS will be between CM and Venom. Although at this point I will err on side of caution and say final PS around Venom.

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2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

¥500M-plus debut for FFH. Can't see the chance of ¥600M or more.

Too low.

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It’s not too farfetched to imagine 550, with the way PSm’s have been recently. Neither is it too hard to see 700 though, depending on the reception of FFH and Better Days. I’m content with the PS trajectory, which has so far been pretty predictable/expected. Will be a short wait til find out for real.

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0.44mn today till now from Midnight compared to 0.29mn yesterday. As per projection, shall do ¥2.9mn today compared to ¥1.9mn yesterday.

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Posted (edited)

 

Time

Spider-man: Far From Home

Venom

Gross

Change

Gross

Change

12 Days Out

   

¥0.07

 

11 Days Out

   

¥0.11

¥0.04

10 Days Out

¥1.03

 

¥0.98

¥0.87

9 Days Out

¥3.49

¥2.47

¥2.99

¥2.01

8 Days Out

¥5.21

¥1.72

¥4.48

¥1.49

7 Days Out

¥7.15

¥1.94

¥6.38

¥1.90

6 Days Out

¥9.21

¥2.06

¥8.46

¥2.08

5 Days Out

¥11.11

¥1.90

¥10.30

¥1.84

4 Days Out

¥14.00

¥2.89

¥13.10

¥2.80

3 Days Out

¥18.90

¥4.89

¥17.84

¥4.74

2 Days Out

¥26.02

¥7.12

¥24.74

¥6.90

1 Day Out

¥35.63

¥9.61

¥34.05

¥9.31

Final

¥60.36

¥24.72

¥57.99

¥23.94

         

Opening Day

¥211.24

¥223.38

PSm

3.50

3.85

 

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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I still don’t understand the expectation beyond ¥600M debut.

 

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I’d take the under on ¥600, just crossing fingers for much better reception than first. Also I’m seeing a daily gain more in the ballpark of 2.4-2.5 atm

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2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

I still don’t understand the expectation beyond ¥600M debut.

 

D9uVJtCUIAEyJu4?format=jpg&name=medium

 

 

Captain Marvel had PS of ¥200mn OD as day 1 was basically Holiday and no bump on Day 2.

 

Far From Home is having 200mn OD pre-sales just on its own. Its very likely to have bump on day two and sort of reaction we have read, 3rd act is supposed to be action one.

 

If FFH open to 200; it is only logical to expect 250 on day 2 and 200 on day 3 or so.

 

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26 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Captain Marvel had PS of ¥200mn OD as day 1 was basically Holiday and no bump on Day 2.

 

Far From Home is having 200mn OD pre-sales just on its own. Its very likely to have bump on day two and sort of reaction we have read, 3rd act is supposed to be action one.

 

If FFH open to 200; it is only logical to expect 250 on day 2 and 200 on day 3 or so.

 

plus, the story for ffh is more like  a superhero story, and not an american highschool movie, so it will be easier to connect with the audience, and it has action throughout the movie, something that hc didnt have as much

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On 6/22/2019 at 10:06 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Spiderman: Far From Home (5 days out)

 

Midnight - 3.71m

OD - 11.12 (+21.4%) (64815 shows)

Sat - 4.74m

Sun - 2.71m

 

Normal increase today, slowed down a bit as is expected over the weekend. Tomorrow will see another relatively smaller increase. 

The above chart makes it look like CM is way ahead and even Aquaman is ahead of FFH and Venom but the chart above is for the first 5 days of the movies PS run regardless of how early or how late PS run started. This gives advantage to late starting movies like CM and Aquaman. 

 

Untitled.png

 

This chart more closely reflects the situation right now. The X axis is days out from release. This table makes it clear that FFH is running way ahead of Aquaman (35m final PS) and BP (45m final PS) and even slightly ahead of Venom (60m final PS) and on par with CM (73m final PS). IF this trend holds true, FFH's final PS will be between CM and Venom. Although at this point I will err on side of caution and say final PS around Venom.

Spiderman: Far From Home (4 days out)

 

Midnight - 4.30m

OD - 13.64 (+22.66%) (68812 shows)

Sat - 5.62m

Sun - 3.01m

 

Normal jump today, still keeping pace with Venom's PS. Will start accelerating from tomorrow. 

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Posted (edited)

CM PS were great, FFH was going to fall behind sometime. Sat bump was meh though, still wondering if IWD played some role there.    

 

FFH seems headed for about 17.2 today, might be final OD PS of O/U 50.   

 

Edit: Seems to be a recurring thing now where FFH middle of day hours improve from morning. Maybe more like 17.6.

Edited by Thanos Legion
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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

CM PS were great, FFH was going to fall behind sometime. Sat bump was meh though, still wondering if IWD played some role there.    

 

FFH seems headed for about 17.2 today, might be final OD PS of O/U 50. 

Better comp is Venom; yeah, of course, IWD played a role in CM OD pre-sales.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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I wonder if TLK can catch fire in China. I think the story should have a very broad appeal. I’m hoping for $250m+

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20 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I wonder if TLK can catch fire in China. I think the story should have a very broad appeal. I’m hoping for $250m+

Yes, maybe over 300M but who know 

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9 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

CM PS were great, FFH was going to fall behind sometime. Sat bump was meh though, still wondering if IWD played some role there.    

 

FFH seems headed for about 17.2 today, might be final OD PS of O/U 50.   

 

Edit: Seems to be a recurring thing now where FFH middle of day hours improve from morning. Maybe more like 17.6.

At 17.82 now

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