Jump to content
Olive

Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

Recommended Posts

Pretty confident that we are looking at $100 mill ~ ish OW. So many small indications/reasons

  • Astonished 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Very happy with yesterday. Was thinking high 14s first and 2nd update, and voila. Today 13:30 is 27.52, +.8 from 12. Compared to yesterday would be a +8.85 day for 33.6.

 

Looking at % of daily gain by 13:30:  

CM Wed — 35.4%, 32.6mn

FFH Tues — 29.9%, 34mn

FFH Mon — 25.5%, 35.65mn

FFH Sun — 29.4, 34.2mn  

FFH Sat — 31%, 33.7mn   

 

Overall pacing as expected so far today. Seems to be headed for low 34s as an early guess, continuing to mimic Venom’s PS run very closely.  

 

16:00 update: At 28.75, +2.03 from 12. 35% faster rate than yesterday, would be +9.3 for the day for 34.05.

 

% of daily gain by 16:00, corresponding number for today:

CM Wed — 48.4%, 33mn

FFH Tues — 42.7%, 34.1mn

FFH Mon — 40%, 34.75mn

FFH Sun — 41.9%, 34.3mn

FFH Sat — 42.4%, 34.2mn   

 

So at this point I’d be pretty surprised if it didn't land 34.25+-.3 or so. If I happen to be awake might do a very brief call at 17:30, but today basically looking exactly as expected.

Edited by Thanos Legion
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

 

Spider-man: Far From Home 2 days Out

 

Midnight: ¥6.2mn (8.2k shows) (+¥1.13mn)

Friday: ¥24.85mn (110k shows) (+¥6.97mn)

Saturday: ¥10.7mn (68k shows) (+¥3.25mn)

Sunday: ¥5.25mn (57k shows) (+¥1.4mn)

 

Total: ¥47mn or $6.8mn

 

http://bit.ly/ChinaPreSale  

 

Speaking optimistically; if we manage a Venom or Homecoming psm; looking at ¥230mn OD.

Previews are looking like ¥17-20mn. Weekend could go for ¥775mn.

 

Conservatively; Od of ¥180mn and rather low 10% bump and 35% drop on Sunday; ¥530mn.

 

Mid point ¥600mn.

 

Summer.  20% Sat bump, 15-20% sun drop

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Summer.  20% Sat bump, 15-20% sun drop

whats your ow prediction ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

behind CM & Venom at the same point.

 

I'm not sure if ¥550M debut is safe.

  • Thanks 1
  • Disbelief 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:
 
 
 
7 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

behind CM & Venom at the same point.

 

I'm not sure if ¥550M debut is safe.

WHAT? WHERE? HOW?

 

Time Spider-man: Far From Home Venom Captain Marvel
  Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change
3 Days Out ¥17.88 ¥4.23 ¥18.04 ¥4.95 ¥21.00 ¥6.55
2 Days Out ¥24.75 ¥6.87 ¥24.75 ¥6.71 ¥29.52 ¥8.52
1 Day Out ¥34.27 ¥9.52 ¥34.05 ¥9.30 ¥42.70 ¥13.18
Final ¥58.78 ¥24.51 ¥57.99 ¥23.94 ¥69.76 ¥27.06

 

 

It's almost identical to Venom while behind Captain Marvel, which is understandable as CM had IWD as OD.

 

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

behind CM & Venom at the same point.

 

I'm not sure if ¥550M debut is safe.

are you sure about that ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, john2000 said:

are you sure about that ?

D9-vZrKVAAAgUj_.jpg

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said:

D9-vZrKVAAAgUj_.jpg

 

see charlies graph

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OW pre-sale / OW

 

EG - 35%

CM - 21%

AQM - 10%

Venom - 14%

Wasp - 16%

IW - 32%

Panther - 19%

 

¥100M pre-sale probably means ¥500M opening.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

D9-vZrKVAAAgUj_.jpg

 

Only OD pre-sales matter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said:

OW pre-sale / OW

 

EG - 35%

CM - 21%

AQM - 10%

Venom - 14%

Wasp - 16%

IW - 32%

Panther - 19%

 

¥100M pre-sale probably means ¥500M opening.

i believe thats a very general way too look at, but we will see

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Only OD pre-sales matter.

bullshit

  • Haha 1
  • Astonished 1
  • Disbelief 1
  • Not Cool 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Gavin Feng said:

bullshit

That's the truth. From Saturday, it will be the word of mouth doing the talking.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said:

bullshit

his opinion is as valid as yours, bc you disagree that doesnt make it bullshit

Edited by john2000

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 
 
 
3 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

OW pre-sale / OW

 

EG - 35%

CM - 21%

AQM - 10%

Venom - 14%

Wasp - 16%

IW - 32%

Panther - 19%

Depending on word of mouth; see the range between Aquaman and Captain Marvel; CM is more than double of Aquaman. While in case of OD, it's just 45% higher. Weekend pre-sales doesn't mean much. It's OD that matter.

 

OD pre-sale / OD

 

EG - 47%

IW - 46%

 

CM - 32%

AQM - 22%

Venom - 26%

Wasp - 29%

Panther - 34%

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Depending on word of mouth; see the range between Aquaman and Captain Marvel; CM is more than double of Aquaman. While in case of OD, it's just 45% higher. Weekend pre-sales doesn't mean much. It's OD that matter.

 

OD pre-sale / OD

 

EG - 47%

IW - 46%

 

CM - 32%

AQM - 22%

Venom - 26%

Wasp - 29%

Panther - 34%

 

agreed, the receptions matters the most,the movie may hit 500 ow, but it will be bc of the wom, not bc of this, 

Edited by john2000

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, john2000 said:

whats your ow prediction ?

600-650m, but with PS off so much lately, 500m is possible as Gavin said. SMHC did 462m in sept. A lot of sequels are often flat in recent years. however its summer which boosts fri and sun should help it clear 500m.

 IW took SH's to another level, boosting  VNM and AQM. in that case 600-700m makes sense. 

 

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

OW pre-sale / OW

 

EG - 35%

CM - 21%

AQM - 10%

Venom - 14%

Wasp - 16%

IW - 32%

Panther - 19%

 

¥100M pre-sale probably means ¥500M opening.

CM and BP were PS heavy.  ill go with 16% like wasp or over 6x OW PS. 600m+

its got to have a better rating than SMHC's 8.2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

600-650m, but with PS off so much lately, 500m is possible as Gavin said. SMHC did 462m in sept. A lot of sequels are often flat in recent years. however its summer which boosts fri and sun should help it clear 500m.

 IW took SH's to another level, boosting  VNM and AQM. in that case 600-700m makes sense. 

 

CM and BP were PS heavy.  ill go with 16% like wasp or over 6x OW PS. 600m+

its got to have a better rating than SMHC's 8.2

so the range is 600-700 and will depend on wom ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

33.55 now, heading for 34.2-34.3 in line with the projection.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.