fmpro Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 Pretty confident that we are looking at $100 mill ~ ish OW. So many small indications/reasons 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 (edited) Very happy with yesterday. Was thinking high 14s first and 2nd update, and voila. Today 13:30 is 27.52, +.8 from 12. Compared to yesterday would be a +8.85 day for 33.6. Looking at % of daily gain by 13:30: CM Wed — 35.4%, 32.6mn FFH Tues — 29.9%, 34mn FFH Mon — 25.5%, 35.65mn FFH Sun — 29.4, 34.2mn FFH Sat — 31%, 33.7mn Overall pacing as expected so far today. Seems to be headed for low 34s as an early guess, continuing to mimic Venom’s PS run very closely. 16:00 update: At 28.75, +2.03 from 12. 35% faster rate than yesterday, would be +9.3 for the day for 34.05. % of daily gain by 16:00, corresponding number for today: CM Wed — 48.4%, 33mn FFH Tues — 42.7%, 34.1mn FFH Mon — 40%, 34.75mn FFH Sun — 41.9%, 34.3mn FFH Sat — 42.4%, 34.2mn So at this point I’d be pretty surprised if it didn't land 34.25+-.3 or so. If I happen to be awake might do a very brief call at 17:30, but today basically looking exactly as expected. Edited June 26, 2019 by Thanos Legion 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 15 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Spider-man: Far From Home 2 days Out Midnight: ¥6.2mn (8.2k shows) (+¥1.13mn) Friday: ¥24.85mn (110k shows) (+¥6.97mn) Saturday: ¥10.7mn (68k shows) (+¥3.25mn) Sunday: ¥5.25mn (57k shows) (+¥1.4mn) Total: ¥47mn or $6.8mn http://bit.ly/ChinaPreSale Speaking optimistically; if we manage a Venom or Homecoming psm; looking at ¥230mn OD. Previews are looking like ¥17-20mn. Weekend could go for ¥775mn. Conservatively; Od of ¥180mn and rather low 10% bump and 35% drop on Sunday; ¥530mn. Mid point ¥600mn. Summer. 20% Sat bump, 15-20% sun drop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 1 minute ago, POTUS 2020 said: Summer. 20% Sat bump, 15-20% sun drop whats your ow prediction ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 behind CM & Venom at the same point. I'm not sure if ¥550M debut is safe. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: 7 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: behind CM & Venom at the same point. I'm not sure if ¥550M debut is safe. WHAT? WHERE? HOW? Time Spider-man: Far From Home Venom Captain Marvel Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change 3 Days Out ¥17.88 ¥4.23 ¥18.04 ¥4.95 ¥21.00 ¥6.55 2 Days Out ¥24.75 ¥6.87 ¥24.75 ¥6.71 ¥29.52 ¥8.52 1 Day Out ¥34.27 ¥9.52 ¥34.05 ¥9.30 ¥42.70 ¥13.18 Final ¥58.78 ¥24.51 ¥57.99 ¥23.94 ¥69.76 ¥27.06 It's almost identical to Venom while behind Captain Marvel, which is understandable as CM had IWD as OD. Edited June 26, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 27 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: behind CM & Venom at the same point. I'm not sure if ¥550M debut is safe. are you sure about that ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, john2000 said: are you sure about that ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said: see charlies graph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 OW pre-sale / OW EG - 35% CM - 21% AQM - 10% Venom - 14% Wasp - 16% IW - 32% Panther - 19% ¥100M pre-sale probably means ¥500M opening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: Only OD pre-sales matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said: OW pre-sale / OW EG - 35% CM - 21% AQM - 10% Venom - 14% Wasp - 16% IW - 32% Panther - 19% ¥100M pre-sale probably means ¥500M opening. i believe thats a very general way too look at, but we will see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Only OD pre-sales matter. bullshit 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 Just now, Gavin Feng said: bullshit That's the truth. From Saturday, it will be the word of mouth doing the talking. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 (edited) 1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said: bullshit his opinion is as valid as yours, bc you disagree that doesnt make it bullshit Edited June 26, 2019 by john2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: OW pre-sale / OW EG - 35% CM - 21% AQM - 10% Venom - 14% Wasp - 16% IW - 32% Panther - 19% Depending on word of mouth; see the range between Aquaman and Captain Marvel; CM is more than double of Aquaman. While in case of OD, it's just 45% higher. Weekend pre-sales doesn't mean much. It's OD that matter. OD pre-sale / OD EG - 47% IW - 46% CM - 32% AQM - 22% Venom - 26% Wasp - 29% Panther - 34% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Depending on word of mouth; see the range between Aquaman and Captain Marvel; CM is more than double of Aquaman. While in case of OD, it's just 45% higher. Weekend pre-sales doesn't mean much. It's OD that matter. OD pre-sale / OD EG - 47% IW - 46% CM - 32% AQM - 22% Venom - 26% Wasp - 29% Panther - 34% agreed, the receptions matters the most,the movie may hit 500 ow, but it will be bc of the wom, not bc of this, Edited June 26, 2019 by john2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 2 hours ago, john2000 said: whats your ow prediction ? 600-650m, but with PS off so much lately, 500m is possible as Gavin said. SMHC did 462m in sept. A lot of sequels are often flat in recent years. however its summer which boosts fri and sun should help it clear 500m. IW took SH's to another level, boosting VNM and AQM. in that case 600-700m makes sense. 1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said: OW pre-sale / OW EG - 35% CM - 21% AQM - 10% Venom - 14% Wasp - 16% IW - 32% Panther - 19% ¥100M pre-sale probably means ¥500M opening. CM and BP were PS heavy. ill go with 16% like wasp or over 6x OW PS. 600m+ its got to have a better rating than SMHC's 8.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said: 600-650m, but with PS off so much lately, 500m is possible as Gavin said. SMHC did 462m in sept. A lot of sequels are often flat in recent years. however its summer which boosts fri and sun should help it clear 500m. IW took SH's to another level, boosting VNM and AQM. in that case 600-700m makes sense. CM and BP were PS heavy. ill go with 16% like wasp or over 6x OW PS. 600m+ its got to have a better rating than SMHC's 8.2 so the range is 600-700 and will depend on wom ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 33.55 now, heading for 34.2-34.3 in line with the projection. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
