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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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Posted (edited)

Spider-man: Far From Home Final

 

Midnight: ¥23mn (10k shows) (+¥14.58mn)

Friday: ¥64mn (180k shows) (+¥26.13mn)

Saturday: ¥23mn (124k shows) (+¥8.75mn)

Sunday: ¥9.8mn (99k shows) (+¥3mn)

 

Total: ¥119.8mn or $17.5mn

 

http://bit.ly/ChinaPreSale  

 

Very good final two days. Record midnight shows for superhero film. I am expecting ¥225mn OD using AM2 PSm though will be hoping something close to 3.7x PSm.

 

From there with normal trend shall go for ¥700-725mn OW.

 

Gavin, even 21% OW will give ¥570mn OW 😛

 

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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3 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I would say no Marvel movie has had a break out run yet (If someone would say EG I wouldn't disaggree, with those numbers it had a good multi).

But other than EG no marvel movie broke out in the sense that the second week of it's release it was have crazy holds, good jumps, low drop. Like Venom or Aquaman. Marvel just seems to have good OW's , decent WoM and even with good WoM like EG's 9.3 at the start it doesn't translate to the crazy leggy runs china can offer. 

Oh I agree With you, though marketing by Tencent helped in those 2 cases in my opinion.( Yes , I know Venom and Aquaman both had really good Maoyan score) 

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9 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I would say no Marvel movie has had a break out run yet (If someone would say EG I wouldn't disaggree, with those numbers it had a good multi).

But other than EG no marvel movie broke out in the sense that the second week of it's release it was have crazy holds, good jumps, low drop. Like Venom or Aquaman. Marvel just seems to have good OW's , decent WoM and even with good WoM like EG's 9.3 at the start it doesn't translate to the crazy leggy runs china can offer. 

Agreed and that saddens me. Hopefully FFH change that and hit 300mn 😛

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Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

Agreed and that saddens me. Hopefully FFH change that and hit 300mn 😛

EG is indisputably a breakout in China, it had a good legs as could have been expected(without extension). Solo movies seem kinda stuck though sadly.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

¥64mn. lol.

 

By 3AM that can go upto ¥67-70mn. 

 

Hopefully Maoyan score is 9.1+

 

MN will hit 22m

OD PS will reach 70m at 3am.

700m/$101m+ OW looking good with an 8.8 or higher.

Im going more off the MN number than 70m in PS which I don't trust. >3x PSm could still happen.  We'll know by 1pm 3pm tomorrow,(cant trust 12-1pm anymore either. many fake outs)

19 minutes ago, Menor said:

EG is indisputably a breakout in China, it had a good legs as could have been expected(without extension). Solo movies seem kinda stuck though sadly.

solo movies not stuck. AQN$292m and VNM$269m both more than doubled the average for solo SH's and beat Aou and CA3

Edited by POTUS 2020
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10 minutes ago, Menor said:

EG is indisputably a breakout in China, it had a good legs as could have been expected(without extension). Solo movies seem kinda stuck though sadly.

They were stuck in USD from 2013-2018, but 2019 solos 150+ and 200+. IW/Endgame May have changed the game a bit, we’ll know by end of 2020.

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10 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

MN will hit 22m

OD PS will reach 70m at 3am.

700m/$101m+ OW looking good with an 8.8 or higher.

Im going more off the MN number than 70m in PS which I don't trust. >3x PSm could still happen.  We'll know by 1pm 3pm tomorrow,(cant trust 12-1pm anymore either. many fake outs)

solo movies not stuck. AQN$292m and VNM$269m both more than doubled the average for solo SH's

Meant specifically for MCU solos, obviously not overall.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Menor said:

Meant specifically for MCU solos, obviously not overall.

Not obvious, you said solo, not MCU solo

It has been assumed that the breakout of IW was the cause of AQM's and VNMs breakout

Regarding MCU, AM2 bumped 30% over AM and Captain Sour Puss did over 1B, well above the average(700m), despite the luke warm reception, hence the name(chinese called her that, not me, but you know Trump, could come from him).

Spidey 7 has a chance to raise the "MCU solo" ceiling to 1.5B and beat CA3/AoU if it and Maoyan doesn't suck

Edited by POTUS 2020

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On 6/26/2019 at 1:35 AM, ZeeSoh said:

Spiderman: Far From Home (2 days out)

 

Midnight - 6.27m

OD - 25 (+39.12%) (110305 shows)

Sat - 10.8m

Sun - 5.25m

 

Good jump today, back again in line with Venom. Midnight and Sun PS still leads all comps, with Sat just a little behind CM. Show count is very strong 2 days out, stronger than any Hollywood movie I have tracked except the Avengers movie. 

Spiderman: Far From Home (Final)

 

OD - 67.03 (+77.05%) (180088 shows)

Sat - 23.69m

Sun - 9.86m

 

The last day was decent but the 2nd last day was very strong which helped Spidey has the second highest PS for a solo SH movie after CM and more than 10% ahead of Venom. 

 

Show count is very strong as well. Higher than every movie I have tracked not named Endgame. It's even higher than Infinity War. Sat Ps is good as well however it is behind the liked of CM, Venom, JW2. Sun PS is currently ahead of Venom and Aquaman but behind CM and JW2. The incredibly strong Midnight gross and the high OD PS combined with somewhat lower Sat/Sun PS indicated frontloadedness which we are seeing more and more these days. 

 

Amongst the recent movies CM had the lowest PS to OW multi of about 8.14. The same multi will get Spidey to 80m. I doubt Spidey will have a lower multi than that. The other lowest multi was of Black Panther at 9.27 which will get Spidey to 90m OW, So at the very least an 85m OW seems very likely. 

 

Getting to 100m OW will require a multi of 10.25x which while higher than the multi's of CM, BP, AM2 and Shazam is much lower than Venom and Spiderman Homecoming. I don't know if it can get there but my conservative guess would be in the 85-95m range whereas optimistically it would be in the 95-105m range. 

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5 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

They were stuck in USD from 2013-2018, but 2019 solos 150+ and 200+. IW/Endgame May have changed the game a bit, we’ll know by end of 2020.

Sure, but curiously the 2 solo films which have done big numbers do not come from MCU

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Isn't Pets 2 opening this weekend?

Any idea of how it will perform?

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50 minutes ago, Omni said:

Isn't Pets 2 opening this weekend?

Any idea of how it will perform?

PS currently at 3,8 mill yuan for friday

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5 hours ago, Omni said:

Isn't Pets 2 opening this weekend?

Any idea of how it will perform?

5.1m final PS for SLoPpy 2nds

 

TLK PS start with 685k on 20.4k shows

 

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10 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

5.1m final PS for SLoPpy 2nds

 

TLK PS start with 685k on 20.4k shows

 

 

That’s pretty strong for the first 6 hours, no?

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Posted (edited)

The Lion King (7 days Out)

 

Midnight - 93k

OD - 686k (20360 shows)

Sat - 530k

Sun - 460k

 

Good start for day 1. Healthy show count and very good Sat/Sun PS out of the gate, perhaps an early indicator of not frontloading.

 

 

OD PS

Midnight

Sat PS

Sun PS

Show Count

CM

2.15

630k

910k

500k

28707

Aquaman

1.65

250k

530k

475k

27302

Far From Home

1.03

292k

385k

310k

24374

TLK

0.686

93k

530k

460k

20360

FB2

0.569

229k

173k

125k

12419

 

Table above shows first day sales of some movies. Included CM for the higher end, FFH for a recent comp and Aquaman/Fantastic Beasts 2 because their PS also started 7 days before release. Over next few days I might add FB1/JL/Alita to the mix too as their PS run also started at a similar point in time. 

 

The above table shows that while TLK's OD PS and midnight is on the smaller side, its Sat/Sun PS is very strong indicating that there isn't too much fan rush at the moment. 

 

Too early to make any predictions but I highly doubt final PS will be anywhere close to some of the big movies like CM, Venom and FFH. 

 

 

Edited by ZeeSoh
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5 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

don't track. $300M confirmed.

 

Whaaaaat?

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