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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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14 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

don't track. $300M confirmed.

You are usually conservative. Twice TJB. Big call.

I have no idea, hence, I track

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20 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

don't track. $300M confirmed.

Doubt it honestly. It has more chance now that most of its competition is gone but I still doubt it will do 300m in China. It's gonna need an Aquaman like run in China because I dont think its gonna out open that. 

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On 4/8/2016 at 11:38 AM, POTUS 2020 said:

Im going to track JB and CA3 to see if we can find a multi. Ill keep each movie in one post and edit to make it more accessible. 

 

Jungle Book OD April 15, 2016

                         Maoyan PS

0000 F  4/8.    1.10m

0000 S  4/9     1.33 +20%

0000 S  4/10   1.86 +40%

0000 M 4/11   2.48 +33%

0000 T  4/12   3.67 +50%

0000 W 4/13   5.86 +67%

0000 T  4/14   9.76 +67%

0000 F  4/15 19.10 +96%     Midnight OD

0900 F  4/15 20.00 +  5%      Morning OD

 

OD Total    77.8m      PS Multi 4.1 x 00:00 PS
OW Total 325.0m

Total.       980.0m

OD  Multi.  8.74

OW Multi   3.03

 

50-66% increases in the final days followed by a 100% increase on the last day is a typical trend.

The 4.1 PS multi is an outlier. Most fall between 2.5-3.0

Here's your best comp @ZeeSoh

Family film.  Ramped up big at the end and had a high PSm for the time

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Posted (edited)

.

Edited by Gavin Feng
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16 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

The old Gavin is dead. From now on, let the new Gavin begin!

 

$350M for The Lion King

$50M for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

$400M for Hobbs & Shaw

$200M for The Angry Birds Movie 2

$130M for Joker

$120M for Maleficent 2

$160M for Terminator: Dark Fate

$200M for Midway

$150M for Frozen 2

$190M for Jumanji

$100M for Skywalker

Despite being the second least number, that is probably the least likely. 😆

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30 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

$350M for The Lion King

 

zach galifianakis yes GIF

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29 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

The old Gavin is dead. From now on, let the new Gavin begin!

 

$130M for Joker

$100M for Skywalker

Those 2 seem optimistic.....

 

Force awaken: 124m

Rogue One: 69.5m

Last Jedi: 42.5m

Solo: 16m

 

Would be quite the come back for Skywalker, and Joker above Logan/BvS ?

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Those 2 seem optimistic.....

 

Force awaken: 124m

Rogue One: 69.5m

Last Jedi: 42.5m

Solo: 16m

 

Would be quite the come back for Skywalker, and Joker above Logan/BvS ?

 

 

 

actually, half of all those numbers are realistic in my view.

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41 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

The old Gavin is dead. From now on, let the new Gavin begin!

 

$350M for The Lion King

$50M for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

$400M for Hobbs & Shaw

$200M for The Angry Birds Movie 2

$130M for Joker

$120M for Maleficent 2

$160M for Terminator: Dark Fate

$200M for Midway

$150M for Frozen 2

$190M for Jumanji

$100M for Skywalker

I won't be surprised by any of them, except Skywalker and AB 2. Wtf is Midway though.

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I would honestly be surprised if Maleficent 2 and Jumanji made so much money too.

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6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I won't be surprised by any of them, except Skywalker and AB 2. Wtf is Midway though.

Hobbs and Shaw higher than main series Furious movies?

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55 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

$100M for Skywalker

Yep ... is totally lost 

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12 minutes ago, Menor said:

Hobbs and Shaw higher than main series Furious movies?

 

2019 vs 2017

Not saying it'll do $400m, but it's on the table for sure. 

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1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

The old Gavin is dead. From now on, let the new Gavin begin!

 

$350M for The Lion King

$50M for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

$400M for Hobbs & Shaw

$200M for The Angry Birds Movie 2

$130M for Joker

$120M for Maleficent 2

$160M for Terminator: Dark Fate

$200M for Midway

$150M for Frozen 2

$190M for Jumanji

$100M for Skywalker

Hobbs & Shaw really $400 M+ ??? ;)

 

 

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22 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

The Lion King (7 days Out)

 

Midnight - 93k

OD - 686k (20360 shows)

Sat - 530k

Sun - 460k

 

The Lion King (6 days Out)

 

Midnight - 273k

OD - 2.38m (36929 shows)

Sat - 1.85m

Sun - 1.16m

 

Good increase, standard for the second day for movies that start their PS runs late. Midnight still lags but Sat/Sun PS as a ratio of OD PS is high which is a good early sign of low frontloading. 

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23 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

actually, half of all those numbers are realistic in my view.

I was thinking anywhere from 1500 to 2b for Hobbes and Shaw.  Not sure how realistic that is.

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On 7/5/2019 at 12:04 AM, Gavin Feng said:

The old Gavin is dead. From now on, let the new Gavin begin!

 

$350M for The Lion King

$50M for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

$400M for Hobbs & Shaw

$200M for The Angry Birds Movie 2

$130M for Joker

$120M for Maleficent 2

$160M for Terminator: Dark Fate

$200M for Midway

$150M for Frozen 2

$190M for Jumanji

$100M for Skywalker

 

23 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

actually, half of all those numbers are realistic in my view.

 

IMO that last one is the only reason you got :hahaha:reactions instead of gatsby-thanks.png

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175% as much as Beauty & the Beast did at the same point.

 

I think $60M is pretty safe and $70M can be expected.

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4 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

175% as much as Beauty & the Beast did at the same point.

 

I think $60M is pretty safe and $70M can be expected.

After a 75M OW, guess the derived multiplier must be 4x 😉

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