Jump to content
Olive

Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

Recommended Posts

36 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

175% as much as Beauty & the Beast did at the same point.

 

I think $60M is pretty safe and $70M can be expected.

 

Then we just need a Coco multiplier and boom! $800m ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/5/2019 at 10:04 PM, ZeeSoh said:

The Lion King (6 days Out)

 

Midnight - 273k

OD - 2.38m (36929 shows)

Sat - 1.85m

Sun - 1.16m

 

Good increase, standard for the second day for movies that start their PS runs late. Midnight still lags but Sat/Sun PS as a ratio of OD PS is high which is a good early sign of low frontloading. 

The Lion King (5 days Out)

 

Midnight - 720k

OD - 4.21m (42329 shows)

Sat - 3.07m

Sun - 2.29m

 

Very good jump today especially for OD. Early to tell but possibly heading to a PS in the 30's region. Could go higher into the 40's if the increases continues to be as big as this. 

  • Thanks 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

The Lion King (5 days Out)

 

Midnight - 720k

OD - 4.21m (42329 shows)

Sat - 3.07m

Sun - 2.29m

 

Very good jump today especially for OD. Early to tell but possibly heading to a PS in the 30's region. Could go higher into the 40's if the increases continues to be as big as this. 

Are you also on the $60M OW train for TLK?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Are you also on the $60M OW train for TLK?

Yup, I don't see it missing unless ratings are bad. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Yup, I don't see it missing unless ratings are bad. 

 

Right now, what would you put the odds at of $70m or $80m OW?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Right now, what would you put the odds at of $70m or $80m OW?

Oh I don't know if I can give percentages and stuff but right now has a very good chance at 70+. Assuming it gets to 35m PS (which is on the low to mid end of where i am expecting) then it will only require a 13-14x multi to get to 70m. That may be difficult for most SH movies to get to but for non SH movies, and especially non franchise movies like this, is not so difficult. For example, amongst recent non SH big movies, Alita, Bumblebee, Godzilla all had a 13x multi or more despite not stellar reviews on the scale of Aquaman. So yeah 70m or more is looking good based on raw PS and PS trends so far.

 

80m+ is up in the air. It would require a 15x multi or more which is not easy but not difficult either. 3 recent movies (Aquaman, bumblebee, Godzilla 2) made it to 15x or more. So there is a chance but I will stick with the high 60's-70's range for now. I will need a few more days of PS to see.

 

All this is under the assumption that final PS would be 35m. It could go lower in which case things would become more difficult or go higher which will make 80m easier. I think it will go over 35m final PS seeing its current trajectory. Another thing helping is that PS is not frontloaded towards OD PS but rather nicely spread out to Sat/Sun as well. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Oh I don't know if I can give percentages and stuff but right now has a very good chance at 70+. Assuming it gets to 35m PS (which is on the low to mid end of where i am expecting) then it will only require a 13-14x multi to get to 70m. That may be difficult for most SH movies to get to but for non SH movies, and especially non franchise movies like this, is not so difficult. For example, amongst recent non SH big movies, Alita, Bumblebee, Godzilla all had a 13x multi or more despite not stellar reviews on the scale of Aquaman. So yeah 70m or more is looking good based on raw PS and PS trends so far.

 

80m+ is up in the air. It would require a 15x multi or more which is not easy but not difficult either. 3 recent movies (Aquaman, bumblebee, Godzilla 2) made it to 15x or more. So there is a chance but I will stick with the high 60's-70's range for now. I will need a few more days of PS to see.

 

All this is under the assumption that final PS would be 35m. It could go lower in which case things would become more difficult or go higher which will make 80m easier. I think it will go over 35m final PS seeing its current trajectory. Another thing helping is that PS is not frontloaded towards OD PS but rather nicely spread out to Sat/Sun as well. 

 

Your insight is appreciated, as always :) 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said:

The Lion King (5 days Out)

 

Midnight - 720k

OD - 4.21m (42329 shows)

Sat - 3.07m

Sun - 2.29m

 

Very good jump today especially for OD. Early to tell but possibly heading to a PS in the 30's region. Could go higher into the 40's if the increases continues to be as big as this. 

Mid 30s sounds right

1159pm

Sat  4.2

Sun 6.2     +47%

Mon 9      +45%

Tues 13.5 +50%

Wed 20.3 +50%

Thu  36.4 +80%

x14   510m/$74.2m OW

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Mid 30s sounds right

1159pm

Sat  4.2

Sun 6.2     +47%

Mon 9      +45%

Tues 13.5 +50%

Wed 20.3 +50%

Thu  36.4 +80%

x14   510m/$74.2m OW

 

knowing the story of lion king, is something that can appeal to the audience there ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, john2000 said:

knowing the story of lion king, is something that can appeal to the audience there ?

Definitely. Asian audiences resonate strongly with movies that deal with family themes, especially elder/parent-child relationships. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Definitely. Asian audiences resonate strongly with movies that deal with family themes, especially elder/parent-child relationships. 

Except for Black Panther.

  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Definitely. Asian audiences resonate strongly with movies that deal with family themes, especially elder/parent-child relationships. 

 

This is one of the main reasons I expect it to do well across almost all markets. The story/theme is universal, especially when it's animals and not people. Add in the huge nostalgia in the older markets, and the newer markets that have exploded in the last decade and you have the recipe for greatness.

As I've been saying from the start though, everything rides on how it's received. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Except for Black Panther.

It still made as much as most SH used to make pre-Infinity War and even more than movies like GotG2, Wonder Woman, BvS not to mention recent near-flops (in China) like Shazam and Dark Phoenix and almost as much as Justice League. 

 

For a so called disappointment, thats pretty damn good imo.  

Edited by ZeeSoh
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

It still made as much as most SH used to make pre-Infinity War and even more than movies like GotG2, Wonder Woman, BvS not to mention recent near-flops (in China) like Shazam and Dark Phoenix and almost as much as Justice League. 

 

For a so called disappointment, thats pretty damn good imo.  

I'm so curious if The Little Mermaid and Sade become successful in the Chinese market. Maybe not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, UserHN said:

I'm so curious if The Little Mermaid and Sade become successful in the Chinese market. Maybe not.

I haven't seen the original TLM so not sure  if it has any elements that might excite the crowds here. But the unique underwater setting will definitely help. 

 

Btw whats Sade? Is it a movie?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/6/2019 at 12:38 AM, a2k said:

 

 

IMO that last one is the only reason you got :hahaha:reactions instead of gatsby-thanks.png

You never know when a film get 9.4 and get 100mn of 15mn opening 😛

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since we are talking about TLK and have atleast 5 Indians here, let's hijack the thread again.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/5/2019 at 12:53 AM, Menor said:

Hobbs and Shaw higher than main series Furious movies?

Yeah, its looking better than any of main series film. Totally beating them in India IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Since we are talking about TLK and have atleast 5 Indians here, let's hijack the thread again.

 

 

 

$50m incoming 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.