Legion Again Posted August 18, 2019 Share Posted August 18, 2019 In the 70s for PS then, maybe 90s USD OW. Gotta see the reception of course. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 13 hours ago, Thanos Legion said: In the 70s for PS then, maybe 90s USD OW. Gotta see the reception of course. 2.2x for $200 total with that ow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, a2k said: 2.2x for $200 total with that ow. Well I’m not the China expert, and I haven’t checked how PS are going today, but I was thinking more 95 than 90 when I posted that, in which case they could skate by with a summer 2.1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Your all overestimting the multplier. Under 2X for sure. Sep has pathetic weekday holds. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 2 hours ago, firedeep said: Your all overestimting the multplier. Under 2X for sure. Sep has pathetic weekday holds. how's the competition for HS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 1 hour ago, a2k said: how's the competition for HS? weak, so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 (edited) On 8/18/2019 at 9:29 PM, abra said: Hobbs & Shaw (4 days out) Midnight - 4.57m OD - 15.86m (18.4%) (~84000 shows) Sat - 5.48m Sun - 3.38m In the evening hours slightly accelerated presale Hobbs & Shaw (3 days out) Midnight - 5.51m OD - 19.96m (25.85%) (94400 shows) Sat - 6.83m Sun - 3.82m Quite a weak jump today as well as yesterday. It's the weakest jump of all movies listed below in comparison. All numbers in tables are for PS 3 days out. OD PS Midnight Sat PS Sun PS Show Count Final PS JW2 21.47 2.53 11.08 5.60 83144 60 CM 21.37 4.13 9.41 3.71 73297 73.08 Hobbs & Shaw 19.96 5.51 6.83 3.82 94400 Spiderman FFH 17.97 5.08 7.48 3.84 82292 67.03 Venom 17.84 2.53 8.25 3.32 82969 60.1 H&S is showing signs of frontloadedness. It has the highest midnight PS right now of all these movies whereas its Sat PS is the lowest of em all. OW internal multiplier may not be that great. One thing it has going for it is that it has the highest show count 3 days out compared to the other movies. Final show count could be quite good. Competition is weak too which should help the OW and legs. Final PS it seems is heading to high 60's at this point, but it could be lower if H&S continues to have low increases. Still seeing this heading to 85-95m range atm. Let's see how it goes over the next couple of days. Edited August 19, 2019 by ZeeSoh 4 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 (edited) On 8/19/2019 at 9:47 PM, ZeeSoh said: Hobbs & Shaw (3 days out) Midnight - 5.51m OD - 19.96m (25.85%) (94400 shows) Sat - 6.83m Sun - 3.82m Hobbs & Shaw (2 days out) Midnight - 7.09m OD - 26.2m (31.26%) (115462 shows) Sat - 9.30m Sun - 4.77m A comparatively smaller jump once again. As we saw yesterday H&S has advantage when it comes to its Midnight PS as well as show count but lags behind similar sized movies when it comes to Sat/Sun PS. The weak jumps have me thinking final PS will be more in the mid 60's region rather than touching the 70's. Typical increase for tomorrow is in the range of mid 40's to 50's. Lets see if the weak increase trend continues tomorrow. Edited August 20, 2019 by ZeeSoh 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Yeah, I’m thinking it will just miss 70 now. But last 2 days can change a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 (edited) I think ¥63-65mn final. Using The Meg PSM ¥160mn OD. The Meg pre-sales T-3 day: ¥19.8mn T-2 day: ¥23.2mn T-1 day: ¥28.3mn Final: ¥40.7mn Edited August 21, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said: I think ¥63-65mn final. Using The Meg PSM ¥160mn OD. The Meg pre-sales T-3 day: ¥19.8mn T-2 day: ¥23.2mn T-1 day: ¥28.3mn Final: ¥40.7mn Just 2x from T-3 to final? That looks awful to me, CBMs can regular pull x3-4. Was there some special circumstance for Meg to explain that? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: Just 2x from T-3 to final? That looks awful to me, CBMs can regular pull x3-4. Was there some special circumstance for Meg to explain that? Only thing I can think of is that it added only 30k (75%) shows after T-3 days. Edited August 21, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Not even 100M OW for H&S? Take that L Dwayne lmao. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 hour ago, CJohn said: Not even 100M OW for H&S? Take that L Dwayne lmao. Damm the hate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 So pre-sales are par Venom and trend as well. Hopefully reception ain't that good. Its time for evil to be defeated. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Hobbs & Shaw (2 days out) Midnight - 7.09m OD - 26.2m (31.26%) (115462 shows) Sat - 9.30m Sun - 4.77m Hobbs & Shaw (1 days out) Midnight - 10.94m OD - 36.0m (37.4%) (150314 shows) Sat - 13.19m Sun - 6.30m Another weak increase. The last few days of low increases has really bought down its potential. Now it seems like it is heading to low 60's. OD PS Midnight Sat PS Sun PS Show Count Final PS CM 43.1 6.56 20.36 7.50 124771 73.08 Spiderman FFH 37.86 8.5 16 6.8 150739 67.03 JW2 36.63 4.45 18.55 8.9 126638 60 Hobbs & Shaw 36.0 10.94 13.19 6.30 150314 Venom 34.09 4.9 17.71 6.63 126049 60.1 Midnight PS is very strong. In fact its midnight PS a day out is already over the midnight final gross of movies like MI6, TLK, Aquaman, Ant Man 2 and Spider-man Homecoming. It's definitely heading to a huge midnight gross. Saturday PS is extremely weak compared to similar movies. Sat PS is almost 1/3rd of OD PS whereas for other movies its more close to half. Sun PS is also weak but not as weak as Sat PS. All this indicates a very frontloaded OW. Show count is very high and heading to 180-190k range. It will be one of the highest # of show time for a hollywood movie, possibly second only to Endgame. Still thinking 85-95m OW at this point but it will depend on rating. Currently Douban shows 6.3 which if accurate is a bad bad rating this early on. But I think overall reception will be decent given its ratings in other asian countries like SK as well as reception states side. 3 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 Final day is coming along at a solid clip, above FFH at the same time now so maybe high 60s after all (or night will be slower, my dataset is still quite tiny 🤷♂️). I think I’d take the under on Bumblebee in USD though. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 4 hours ago, Thanos Legion said: Final day is coming along at a solid clip, above FFH at the same time now so maybe high 60s after all (or night will be slower, my dataset is still quite tiny 🤷♂️). I think I’d take the under on Bumblebee in USD though. The PS run rate is getting furiously faster At 2m per hour and should continue to increase. 66-70m at 3am. 90%~ final day increase. Caveat, Maoyan could stall Assuming it doesn't stall, and if it can do 3.3x PS, $100m+ weekend possible with a decent rating, 9.1+ <$80m with a 2.5 PSm is also still possible Ill go optimistically with $95-105m because there is a bit of doom and gloom and saltiness 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 (edited) On 8/21/2019 at 11:07 PM, ZeeSoh said: Hobbs & Shaw (1 days out) Midnight - 10.94m OD - 36.0m (37.4%) (150314 shows) Sat - 13.19m Sun - 6.30m Hobbs & Shaw (Final) OD - 68.86m (91.27%) (185151 shows) Sat - 20.29m Sun - 8.82m Huge jump on the final day after days of weak jump. Its final day jump is higher than the final day jump of similarly big movies like MI6, Spiderman FFH, Captain Marvel, etc. Its show count is also the highest for a hollywood movie as far as I know barring Endgame. Its higher than even Infinity War and FFH (which held the previous non-Endgame record). Sat PS however is concerning a bit as it is low for an OD PS of this size. It’s 20m Sat PS is lower than Sat PS of FFH (23.69), Venom (27.66) and Captain Marvel (32.25). Similarly its Sun PS is also lower than these movies. This coupled with the huge midnight gross and high OD PS could indicate frontloadedness. It needs a 10.06x multi to get to 90m OW which is the same as what Spidey managed (10.05x). But the low Sat/Sun Ps is giving me pause in terms of projecting any higher than 90m at this point. It could have a multi as low as CM which managed a 8.14 which indicates an OW of 80m which is why I am leaning towards a 85-95m OW. But FF movies are usually not as frontloaded and have more market depth than MCU ones plus CM had Internationl Womens Day inflating it OD. So while it may not have a multi as high as Venom (12.76) I think it can still do 10x or more. With the low TPP and Douban rating I am torn between projecting 85-95 or 90-100. I guess it will become clear once Maoyan rating and OD gross becomes apparent. Edited August 22, 2019 by ZeeSoh 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lor15 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 (edited) How is Maleficent doing for this weekend? Edited October 14, 2019 by lor15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
