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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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13 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

In the 70s for PS then, maybe 90s USD OW. Gotta see the reception of course.

2.2x for $200 total with that ow.

 

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSbbEAkP7q-XCbzacGk4Xl

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4 minutes ago, a2k said:

2.2x for $200 total with that ow.

 

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSbbEAkP7q-XCbzacGk4Xl

Well I’m not the China expert, and I haven’t checked how PS are going today, but I was thinking more 95 than 90 when I posted that, in which case they could skate by with a summer 2.1 :jeb!:

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2 hours ago, firedeep said:

Your all overestimting the multplier. 

 

Under 2X for sure. Sep has pathetic weekday holds.

how's the competition for HS?

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Posted (edited)
On 8/18/2019 at 9:29 PM, abra said:

Hobbs & Shaw (4 days out)

 

Midnight - 4.57m

OD - 15.86m (18.4%) (~84000 shows)

Sat - 5.48m

Sun - 3.38m

 

In the evening hours slightly accelerated presale

Hobbs & Shaw (3 days out)

 

Midnight - 5.51m

OD - 19.96m (25.85%) (94400 shows)

Sat - 6.83m

Sun - 3.82m

 

Quite a weak jump today as well as yesterday. It's the weakest jump of all movies listed below in comparison. All numbers in tables are for PS 3 days out. 

 

 

OD PS

Midnight

Sat PS

Sun PS

Show Count

Final PS

JW2

21.47

2.53

11.08

5.60

83144

60

CM

21.37

4.13

9.41

3.71

73297

73.08

Hobbs & Shaw

19.96

5.51

6.83

3.82

94400

 

Spiderman FFH

17.97

5.08

7.48

3.84

82292

67.03

Venom

17.84

2.53

8.25

3.32

82969

60.1

 

H&S is showing signs of frontloadedness. It has the highest midnight PS right now of all these movies whereas its Sat PS is the lowest of em all. OW internal multiplier may not be that great. One thing it has going for it is that it has the highest show count 3 days out compared to the other movies. Final show count could be quite good. Competition is weak too which should help the OW and legs. 

 

Final PS it seems is heading to high 60's at this point, but it could be lower if H&S continues to have low increases. Still seeing this heading to 85-95m range atm. Let's see how it goes over the next couple of days. 

Edited by ZeeSoh
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Posted (edited)
On 8/19/2019 at 9:47 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Hobbs & Shaw (3 days out)

 

Midnight - 5.51m

OD - 19.96m (25.85%) (94400 shows)

Sat - 6.83m

Sun - 3.82m

Hobbs & Shaw (2 days out)

 

Midnight - 7.09m

OD - 26.2m (31.26%) (115462 shows)

Sat - 9.30m

Sun - 4.77m

 

A comparatively smaller jump once again. As we saw yesterday H&S has advantage when it comes to its Midnight PS as well as show count but lags behind similar sized movies when it comes to Sat/Sun PS. The weak jumps have me thinking final PS will be more in the mid 60's region rather than touching the 70's. Typical increase for tomorrow is in the range of mid 40's to 50's. Lets see if the weak increase trend continues tomorrow. 

Edited by ZeeSoh
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Posted (edited)

I think ¥63-65mn final.

Using The Meg PSM ¥160mn OD.

 

The Meg pre-sales

T-3 day: ¥19.8mn

T-2 day: ¥23.2mn

T-1 day: ¥28.3mn

Final: ¥40.7mn

Edited by Charlie Jatinder

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1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I think ¥63-65mn final.

Using The Meg PSM ¥160mn OD.

 

The Meg pre-sales

T-3 day: ¥19.8mn

T-2 day: ¥23.2mn

T-1 day: ¥28.3mn

Final: ¥40.7mn

Just 2x from T-3 to final? That looks awful to me, CBMs can regular pull x3-4. Was there some special circumstance for Meg to explain that?

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Just 2x from T-3 to final? That looks awful to me, CBMs can regular pull x3-4. Was there some special circumstance for Meg to explain that?

Only thing I can think of is that it added only 30k (75%) shows after T-3 days.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder

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Not even 100M OW for H&S? Take that L Dwayne lmao.

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1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Not even 100M OW for H&S? Take that L Dwayne lmao.

Damm the hate

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So pre-sales are par Venom and trend as well. Hopefully reception ain't that good. Its time for evil to be defeated.

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23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Hobbs & Shaw (2 days out)

 

Midnight - 7.09m

OD - 26.2m (31.26%) (115462 shows)

Sat - 9.30m

Sun - 4.77m

 

Hobbs & Shaw (1 days out)

 

Midnight - 10.94m

OD - 36.0m (37.4%) (150314 shows)

Sat - 13.19m

Sun - 6.30m

 

Another weak increase. The last few days of low increases has really bought down its potential. Now it seems like it is heading to low 60's. 

 

OD PS

Midnight

Sat PS

Sun PS

Show Count

Final PS

CM

43.1

6.56

20.36

7.50

124771

73.08

Spiderman FFH

37.86

8.5

16

6.8

150739

67.03

JW2

36.63

4.45

18.55

8.9

126638

60

Hobbs & Shaw

36.0

10.94

13.19

6.30

150314

 

Venom

34.09

4.9

17.71

6.63

126049

60.1

 

Midnight PS is very strong. In fact its midnight PS a day out is already over the midnight final gross of movies like MI6, TLK, Aquaman, Ant Man 2 and Spider-man Homecoming. It's definitely heading to a huge midnight gross. 

Saturday PS is extremely weak compared to similar movies. Sat PS is almost 1/3rd of OD PS whereas for other movies its more close to half. Sun PS is also weak but not as weak as Sat PS. All this indicates a very frontloaded OW. 

 

Show count is very high and heading to 180-190k range. It will be one of the highest # of show time for a hollywood movie, possibly second only to Endgame. Still thinking 85-95m OW at this point but it will depend on rating. Currently Douban shows 6.3 which if accurate is a bad bad rating this early on. But I think overall reception will be decent given its ratings in other asian countries like SK as well as reception states side. 

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Final day is coming along at a solid clip, above FFH at the same time now so maybe high 60s after all (or night will be slower, my dataset is still quite tiny 🤷‍♂️). I think I’d take the under on Bumblebee in USD though. 

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4 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Final day is coming along at a solid clip, above FFH at the same time now so maybe high 60s after all (or night will be slower, my dataset is still quite tiny 🤷‍♂️). I think I’d take the under on Bumblebee in USD though. 

The PS run rate is getting furiously faster:P

At 2m per hour and should continue to increase. 66-70m at 3am.  90%~ final day increase.

Caveat, Maoyan could stall

Assuming it doesn't stall, and if it can do 3.3x PS, $100m+ weekend possible with a decent rating, 9.1+

<$80m with a 2.5 PSm is also still possible

Ill go optimistically with $95-105m because there is a bit of doom and gloom and saltiness

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Posted (edited)
On 8/21/2019 at 11:07 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Hobbs & Shaw (1 days out)

 

Midnight - 10.94m

OD - 36.0m (37.4%) (150314 shows)

Sat - 13.19m

Sun - 6.30m

Hobbs & Shaw (Final)

 

OD - 68.86m (91.27%) (185151 shows)

Sat - 20.29m

Sun - 8.82m

 

Huge jump on the final day after days of weak jump. Its final day jump is higher than the final day jump of similarly big movies like MI6, Spiderman FFH, Captain Marvel, etc. 

 

Its show count is also the highest for a hollywood movie as far as I know barring Endgame. Its higher than even Infinity War and FFH (which held the previous non-Endgame record). 

 

Sat PS however is concerning a bit as it is low for an OD PS of this size. It’s 20m Sat PS is lower than Sat PS of FFH (23.69), Venom (27.66) and Captain Marvel (32.25). Similarly its Sun PS is also lower than these movies. This coupled with the huge midnight gross and high OD PS could indicate frontloadedness. 

 

It needs a 10.06x multi to get to 90m OW which is the same as what Spidey managed (10.05x). But the low Sat/Sun Ps is giving me pause in terms of projecting any higher than 90m at this point. It could have a multi as low as CM which managed a 8.14 which indicates an OW of 80m which is why I am leaning towards a 85-95m OW.  But FF movies are usually not as frontloaded and have more market depth than MCU ones plus CM had Internationl Womens Day inflating it OD. So while it may not have a multi as high as Venom (12.76) I think it can still do 10x or more. 

 

With the low TPP and Douban rating I am torn between projecting 85-95 or 90-100. I guess it will become clear once Maoyan rating and OD gross becomes apparent. 

Edited by ZeeSoh
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