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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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fmpro Global Phenomenon

fmpro

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Frozen PS definitely on now. at 1.55m with 22791 shows. It has just under a week to go. Any comparisons @ZeeSoh/ @POTUS 2020 / @fmpro

 

I am thinking we should use TS4, I2 and Pikachu as movies to compare?

I don`t. A pretty good number IMO
 

But with animated movies WOM is everything and PS is minimal so comparing PS gives is perfectly fine, but anything can happen after OD

 

 

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ZeeSoh Blockbuster

ZeeSoh

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Frozen PS definitely on now. at 1.55m with 22791 shows. It has just under a week to go. Any comparisons @ZeeSoh/ @POTUS 2020 / @fmpro

 

I am thinking we should use TS4, I2 and Pikachu as movies to compare?

I havent really tracked any animated movie so I dont really have any suitable comp, but I do have Pikachu numbers which I can comp with when today’s final numbers get in. 

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

I havent really tracked any animated movie so I dont really have any suitable comp, but I do have Pikachu numbers which I can comp with when today’s final numbers get in. 

Shit. Just checked Maoyan, they updated app, earlier there was a page to see day wise pre-sales of a film. Couldn't find now.

Edited by Jedi Jat
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ZeeSoh Blockbuster

ZeeSoh

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Shit. Just checked Maoyan, they updated app, earlier there was a page to see day wise pre-sales of a film. Couldn't find now.

Yup. They did that a while back. Now when I try accessing the website on movile it redirects to some other link asking to enter user name and password. And if u try and register an account it asks for a phone number which I am not too keen on handing out. 

 

Desktop version of the website is still available but that version doesnt have any details whatsoever that the actual website did. Meaning I cant access presale numbers of any movie so will have to depend on the numbers from those movies that I and others already had tracked

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Meaning I cant access presale numbers of any movie so will have to depend on the numbers from those movies that I and others already had tracked

Actually I got a way. Just trying to see if it works.

 

Update: Yes it did.

https://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/341213/premierebox#1

 

Change the movie id in URL by searching the film on normal Maoyan.com

 

Update 2: Re-checked app, now its working. So you will track it?

Edited by Jedi Jat
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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted

Frozen II 7 Days Out

 

Opening Day: ¥0.64 million (13573 shows)

 

I thought, since the general expectations in China thread are $50-60mn, may be Ralph Breaks The Internet will be good comp but it's much bigger in pre-sales, beating Despicable Me 3 at same circle of time. Too early to call anything, but ¥35-40mn, preferably at higher end is what I think is possible, that will be the biggest pre-sales for an animation IIRC. 

 

Comps

 
 
 
 
Spoiler

Time
Frozen II Ralph Breaks The Internet Despicable Me 3
Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change
11 Days Out         ¥0.13  
10 Days Out         ¥0.26 ¥0.13
9 Days Out         ¥0.48 ¥0.23
8 Days Out         ¥0.95 ¥0.47
7 Days Out ¥0.64   ¥0.11   ¥1.48 ¥0.53
6 Days Out ¥2.40 ¥1.76 ¥0.44 ¥0.33 ¥2.20 ¥0.72
5 Days Out ¥3.58 ¥1.18 ¥0.66 ¥0.22 ¥3.06 ¥0.86
4 Days Out ¥4.63 ¥1.05 ¥0.86 ¥0.20 ¥4.09 ¥1.03
3 Days Out ¥7.23 ¥2.60 ¥1.35 ¥0.49 ¥6.05 ¥1.96
2 Days Out ¥12.48 ¥5.25 ¥2.34 ¥0.99 ¥9.34 ¥3.29
1 Day Out ¥21.14 ¥8.66 ¥3.97 ¥1.63 ¥16.17 ¥6.83
Final ¥41.47 ¥20.33 ¥7.79 ¥3.83 ¥36.48 ¥20.31
             
Opening Day ¥145.14   ¥28.62   ¥137.80  
PSm 3.50   3.67   3.78  

 

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PKMLover Box Office Gold

PKMLover

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Frozen II 7 Days Out

 

Opening Day: ¥0.64 million (13573 shows)

 

I thought, since the general expectations in China thread are $50-60mn, may be Ralph Breaks The Internet will be good comp but it's much bigger in pre-sales, beating Despicable Me 3 at same circle of time. Too early to call anything, but ¥35-40mn, preferably at higher end is what I think is possible, that will be the biggest pre-sales for an animation IIRC. 

 

Comps

Spoiler
 
 
 
 
  Hide contents

 

Time
Frozen II Ralph Breaks The Internet Despicable Me 3
Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change
11 Days Out         ¥0.13  
10 Days Out         ¥0.26 ¥0.13
9 Days Out         ¥0.48 ¥0.23
8 Days Out         ¥0.95 ¥0.47
7 Days Out ¥0.64   ¥0.11   ¥1.48 ¥0.53
6 Days Out ¥2.40 ¥1.76 ¥0.44 ¥0.33 ¥2.20 ¥0.72
5 Days Out ¥3.58 ¥1.18 ¥0.66 ¥0.22 ¥3.06 ¥0.86
4 Days Out ¥4.63 ¥1.05 ¥0.86 ¥0.20 ¥4.09 ¥1.03
3 Days Out ¥7.23 ¥2.60 ¥1.35 ¥0.49 ¥6.05 ¥1.96
2 Days Out ¥12.48 ¥5.25 ¥2.34 ¥0.99 ¥9.34 ¥3.29
1 Day Out ¥21.14 ¥8.66 ¥3.97 ¥1.63 ¥16.17 ¥6.83
Final ¥41.47 ¥20.33 ¥7.79 ¥3.83 ¥36.48 ¥20.31
             
Opening Day ¥145.14   ¥28.62   ¥137.80  
PSm 3.50   3.67   3.78  

 

Opening day for Frozen 2 in China = how much? ¥145.14??

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted

Frozen II 6 Days Out

 

Midnight: ¥0.16mn

Opening Day: ¥2.3mn (31.75k shows)

Saturday: ¥1.25mn (15.5k shows)

Sunday: ¥1.05mn (13k shows)

 

Total: ¥4.75mn

 

Very strong start to pre-sales, biggest for an animation film, pointing toward, it's little early to say, but ¥400mn plus weekend. Let's wait for few days though.

 

Comps

 
 
 
 
Spoiler

Time
Frozen II Ralph Breaks The Internet Despicable Me 3
Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change
11 Days Out         ¥0.13  
10 Days Out         ¥0.26 ¥0.13
9 Days Out         ¥0.48 ¥0.23
8 Days Out         ¥0.95 ¥0.47
7 Days Out ¥0.64   ¥0.11   ¥1.48 ¥0.53
6 Days Out ¥2.25 ¥1.61 ¥0.44 ¥0.33 ¥2.20 ¥0.72
5 Days Out ¥3.33 ¥1.08 ¥0.66 ¥0.22 ¥3.06 ¥0.86
4 Days Out ¥4.29 ¥0.96 ¥0.86 ¥0.20 ¥4.09 ¥1.03
3 Days Out ¥6.67 ¥2.38 ¥1.35 ¥0.49 ¥6.05 ¥1.96
2 Days Out ¥11.47 ¥4.80 ¥2.34 ¥0.99 ¥9.34 ¥3.29
1 Day Out ¥19.39 ¥7.92 ¥3.97 ¥1.63 ¥16.17 ¥6.83
Final ¥37.99 ¥18.59 ¥7.79 ¥3.83 ¥36.48 ¥20.31
             
Opening Day ¥132.95   ¥28.62   ¥137.80  
PSm 3.50   3.67   3.78  

 

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Sunny Max Box Office Gold

Sunny Max

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Yup. They did that a while back. Now when I try accessing the website on movile it redirects to some other link asking to enter user name and password. And if u try and register an account it asks for a phone number which I am not too keen on handing out. 

 

Desktop version of the website is still available but that version doesnt have any details whatsoever that the actual website did. Meaning I cant access presale numbers of any movie so will have to depend on the numbers from those movies that I and others already had tracked

Hmm. same problem i m facing ... why they keep changing the setting of Maoyan ... 😶

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Sunny Max Box Office Gold

Sunny Max

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Actually I got a way. Just trying to see if it works.

 

Update: Yes it did.

https://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/341213/premierebox#1

 

Change the movie id in URL by searching the film on normal Maoyan.com

 

Update 2: Re-checked app, now its working. So you will track it?

Super ... i also did this for 2.0  :D 

Edited by Sunny Max
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lor15 Indie Sensation

lor15

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

Frozen II 6 Days Out

 

Midnight: ¥0.16mn

Opening Day: ¥2.3mn (31.75k shows)

Saturday: ¥1.25mn (15.5k shows)

Sunday: ¥1.05mn (13k shows)

 

Total: ¥4.75mn

 

Very strong start to pre-sales, biggest for an animation film, pointing toward, it's little early to say, but ¥400mn plus weekend. Let's wait for few days though.

 

Comps

Spoiler
  Reveal hidden contents
Time
Frozen II Ralph Breaks The Internet Despicable Me 3
Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change
11 Days Out         ¥0.13  
10 Days Out         ¥0.26 ¥0.13
9 Days Out         ¥0.48 ¥0.23
8 Days Out         ¥0.95 ¥0.47
7 Days Out ¥0.64   ¥0.11   ¥1.48 ¥0.53
6 Days Out ¥2.25 ¥1.61 ¥0.44 ¥0.33 ¥2.20 ¥0.72
5 Days Out ¥3.33 ¥1.08 ¥0.66 ¥0.22 ¥3.06 ¥0.86
4 Days Out ¥4.29 ¥0.96 ¥0.86 ¥0.20 ¥4.09 ¥1.03
3 Days Out ¥6.67 ¥2.38 ¥1.35 ¥0.49 ¥6.05 ¥1.96
2 Days Out ¥11.47 ¥4.80 ¥2.34 ¥0.99 ¥9.34 ¥3.29
1 Day Out ¥19.39 ¥7.92 ¥3.97 ¥1.63 ¥16.17 ¥6.83
Final ¥37.99 ¥18.59 ¥7.79 ¥3.83 ¥36.48 ¥20.31
             
Opening Day ¥132.95   ¥28.62   ¥137.80  
PSm 3.50   3.67   3.78  

 

$50M ow in China would be amazing, i hope it get good wom

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ZeeSoh Blockbuster

ZeeSoh

Posted
Posted

Frozen 2 (6 days out)

 

Midnight - 169k

OD - 2.32m (+261%) (31869 shows)

Sat - 1.38m

Sun - 1.07m

 

A very strong 2nd day. I dont have a lot of comps at this point but compared to Detective Pikachu it’s doing fairly well. Its OD is slightly behind at the same point in time but DP already had 9-10 days of PS by this point versus only the 2nd for Frozen 2. Frozen is also ahead in Sat and Sun PS. 

 

So far it is closely following The Lion king from earlier this year. TLK also started its run 7 days out like Frozen 2. Both had first day PS of around 0.64-0.68m. 2nd day OD PS for both are also very similar (2.32 for Frozen vs 2.38 for TLK). TLK went on to have a final PS of 27m Yuan and around 50+ USD opening weekend. 

 

Frozen 2 also seems to be heading to a high 20’s final PS and an opening around 50m usd if reviews are good. 

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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Frozen 2 (6 days out)

 

Midnight - 169k

OD - 2.32m (+261%) (31869 shows)

Sat - 1.38m

Sun - 1.07m

 

A very strong 2nd day. I dont have a lot of comps at this point but compared to Detective Pikachu it’s doing fairly well. Its OD is slightly behind at the same point in time but DP already had 9-10 days of PS by this point versus only the 2nd for Frozen 2. Frozen is also ahead in Sat and Sun PS. 

 

So far it is closely following The Lion king from earlier this year. TLK also started its run 7 days out like Frozen 2. Both had first day PS of around 0.64-0.68m. 2nd day OD PS for both are also very similar (2.32 for Frozen vs 2.38 for TLK). TLK went on to have a final PS of 27m Yuan and around 50+ USD opening weekend. 

 

Frozen 2 also seems to be heading to a high 20’s final PS and an opening around 50m if reviews are good. 

50 in dollars ?

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted
On 11/15/2019 at 7:23 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Frozen PS definitely on now. at 1.55m with 22791 shows. It has just under a week to go. Any comparisons @ZeeSoh/ @POTUS 2020 / @fmpro

 

I am thinking we should use TS4, I2 and Pikachu as movies to compare?

Im with ZeeSoh  on this. 

50%+ gain today should lead to mid 20s final PS. 

100m OD

350m$50m OW possible.

PS needs to increase 45-50% sun thru tues to get there.

F1 held well WoW w decent WoM.

It should be well received.

Many sequels havent improved lately, 

M2, T6, A dogs purpose etc.

It would be nice to see F2 double F1.

 

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted

Frozen II 5 Days Out

 

Date Gross in ¥ ('000) Gross in $ Change Shows / Avg Gross-to-Date
Nov. 21, 2019 ¥220 $31,000 30% 1,500 $21 $31,000
Nov. 22, 2019 ¥3,700 $529,000 59% 38,000 $14 $560,000
Nov. 23, 2019 ¥2,300 $329,000 67% 19,000 $17 $889,000
Nov. 24, 2019 ¥1,490 $213,000 39% 15,700 $14 $1,102,000
Total ¥7,710 $1,102,000 56% 74,200 $15  

 

Good Increase and towards a very good final number but its rather early to say something concrete. Putting The Lion King in comp which has better performance on 5 Days out but that was due to Maoyan error which was seen with a low Monday. Still keeping a conservative eye, it will be better to have it as a comp. 

 

Comp

 
 
 
 
Spoiler

 

 

Time
Frozen II Ralph Breaks The Internet Despicable Me 3 The Lion King
Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change
11 Days Out         ¥0.13      
10 Days Out         ¥0.26 ¥0.13    
9 Days Out         ¥0.48 ¥0.23    
8 Days Out         ¥0.95 ¥0.47    
7 Days Out ¥0.64   ¥0.11   ¥1.48 ¥0.53 ¥0.69  
6 Days Out ¥2.32 ¥1.68 ¥0.44 ¥0.33 ¥2.20 ¥0.72 ¥2.39 ¥1.70
5 Days Out ¥3.70 ¥1.38 ¥0.66 ¥0.22 ¥3.06 ¥0.86 ¥4.22 ¥1.83
4 Days Out ¥4.93 ¥1.23 ¥0.86 ¥0.20 ¥4.09 ¥1.03 ¥4.94 ¥0.72
3 Days Out ¥7.27 ¥2.34 ¥1.35 ¥0.49 ¥6.05 ¥1.96 ¥6.01 ¥1.07
2 Days Out ¥11.19 ¥3.93 ¥2.34 ¥0.99 ¥9.34 ¥3.29 ¥8.26 ¥2.25
1 Day Out ¥17.67 ¥6.48 ¥3.97 ¥1.63 ¥16.17 ¥6.83 ¥12.56 ¥4.30
Final ¥32.88 ¥15.21 ¥7.79 ¥3.83 ¥36.48 ¥20.31 ¥25.26 ¥12.70
                 
Opening Day ¥118.37   ¥28.62   ¥137.80   ¥95.65  
PSm 3.60   3.67   3.78   3.79  

 

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