Legion Again Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 On my laptop, iPad, and android phone I’m getting a 403 error now when trying to access the dashboard. Has anyone encountered the same issue in the past/know how to fix/work around it? Following DM3/WIR2 would be about 44 final PS, maybe 150 OD. Would be nice but will hardly count on it at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 anything close to $75 total would be a big win for frozen2. approaching $100 would be fantastic. lot of sequels don't grow and don't correlate with the growth of market. malef2 and kingsmen2 come to mind - the latter cause it had surprised me that time. doubling frozen1 or coming close would be a huge achievement. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, a2k said: lot of sequels don't grow and don't correlate with the growth of market This generalization ain't accurate. China is Asian country and like majority Asian countries we love sequels. But every film has its own individuality, just because some recent sequels aren't growing, doesn't mean sequels are doing bad. Those sequels didn't do well because those looked like shit and were shit. Just recent, Mal 2, will do ¥350mn compared to ¥295mn of Mal, while in rest of world, sequel will end up doing just 60% of original and others as well. FFH did almost double Homecoming, while it barely increase by 20% in rest of world. Edited November 17, 2019 by Jedi Jat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 (edited) 11 hours ago, Jedi Jat said: This generalization ain't accurate. China is Asian country and like majority Asian countries we love sequels. But every film has its own individuality, just because some recent sequels aren't growing, doesn't mean sequels are doing bad. Those sequels didn't do well because those looked like shit and were shit. Just recent, Mal 2, will do ¥350mn compared to ¥295mn of Mal, while in rest of world, sequel will end up doing just 60% of original and others as well. FFH did almost double Homecoming, while it barely increase by 20% in rest of world. not generalizing - many sequels do grow in boxoffice even if admissions don't grow in a tantamount manner. just that can't take growth for granted. used to be a thought that a sequel will at least show good growth in china but not always the case. frozen growing and reaching $75 will be a big deal going by how animations perform and that $75 would be a 50% increase. Edited November 17, 2019 by a2k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 I’d be surprised to miss $100M. Seems bad reception would be needed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Me too. Seems like a certain ¥100mn opening day, with more likely to be ¥130-150mn, missing ¥700mn from there is unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 (edited) I would take over on 150 OD, but might be getting ahead of myself. Has been known to happen 😛 Spoiler Though sometimes it works out pretty well 🎉 Edited November 17, 2019 by Thanos Legion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 I know many people here think $80-100M total is a big win for Frozen 2 and would argue that any other higher expectation is unreasonable. And I understand it. But I think there is a factor that people outside China don't know but cannot be ignored. The first Frozen movie didn't make huge in China, but the movie and its characters have been really popular since then. It is no exaggeration to say that many people especially those little girls believe any other princess is not real princess compared to Elsa. They may not know what Disney is, but they recognize Elsa. In their heart, Elsa is everything. Those piratical products of Frozen can even be sold to towns / countrysides. So in some ways, Elsa is the supreme princess. And Frozen 2 represent the biggest Hollywood animation(which it is around the world). If Frozen 2 couldn't make a very great number here, the movie and itself wouldn't get any hurt but release a signal that Disney brand and their princess and other Hollywood animations still have a very very long way to go in China. It just feels like that Endgame didn't even hit $400M in China, which means that Hollywood titles still can't attract more local audience. But still, I'm happy with any number over 0 considering how weak Disney's marketing is. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrGlass2 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 1 hour ago, a2k said: frozen growing and reaching $75 will be a big deal going by how animations perform and that $75 would be a 50% increase. Not really, the first one was released in 2013. The Chinese market was starting to explode. Back then, Iron Man 3 made $120M beating all Marvel records. Fast&Furious 6 made... $66M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 14 hours ago, Jedi Jat said: This generalization ain't accurate. China is Asian country and like majority Asian countries we love sequels. But every film has its own individuality, just because some recent sequels aren't growing, doesn't mean sequels are doing bad. Those sequels didn't do well because those looked like shit and were shit. Just recent, Mal 2, will do ¥350mn compared to ¥295mn of Mal, while in rest of world, sequel will end up doing just 60% of original and others as well. FFH did almost double Homecoming, while it barely increase by 20% in rest of world. 1 hour ago, MrGlass2 said: Not really, the first one was released in 2013. The Chinese market was starting to explode. Back then, Iron Man 3 made $120M beating all Marvel records. Fast&Furious 6 made... $66M. And after IM3 did $120m, that became the upper end($120m-150m) for single SH movies until AQM and VNM broke out. In general, yes Im generalizing, most sequels have not been increasing since 2013-15. Im not speaking of quality or how it increased or not in other marketd, but that the BO growth has slowed and most of the gains have been in gotten in just a handful of movies, CNY and other holiday films, the top 3 summer releases and a few HLWD movies. The rest is close to flat. $30-50m had become common for toons by 2014 and its a common number this year. If @Gavin Feng is right and it has built a huge following since then it could explode. Otherwise it would go the same route as Mal2(9.1 rated) and barely increase like M2 even though BO is up $100% since 2014. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Frozen II 4 Days Out Date Gross in ¥ ('000) Gross in $ Change Shows / Avg Gross-to-Date Nov. 21, 2019 ¥330 $47,000 50% 1,620 $29 $47,000 Nov. 22, 2019 ¥5,155 $736,000 37% 42,800 $17 $783,000 Nov. 23, 2019 ¥3,400 $486,000 48% 22,000 $22 $1,269,000 Nov. 24, 2019 ¥1,900 $271,000 28% 17,900 $15 $1,540,000 Total ¥10,785 $1,540,000 39% 84,320 $18 Comps Spoiler Time Frozen II Despicable Me 3 Gross Change Gross Change 11 Days Out ¥0.13 10 Days Out ¥0.26 ¥0.13 9 Days Out ¥0.48 ¥0.23 8 Days Out ¥0.95 ¥0.47 7 Days Out ¥0.64 ¥1.48 ¥0.53 6 Days Out ¥2.32 ¥1.68 ¥2.20 ¥0.72 5 Days Out ¥3.75 ¥1.43 ¥3.06 ¥0.86 4 Days Out ¥5.15 ¥1.40 ¥4.09 ¥1.03 3 Days Out ¥7.81 ¥2.66 ¥6.05 ¥1.96 2 Days Out ¥12.27 ¥4.46 ¥9.34 ¥3.29 1 Day Out ¥19.64 ¥7.37 ¥16.17 ¥6.83 Final ¥36.92 ¥17.28 ¥36.48 ¥20.31 Opening Day ¥132.92 ¥137.80 PSm 3.60 3.78 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 (edited) Frozen 2 OD PS at 7.16m up 39% Likely to be up another 40% to 10m tomorrow, 50% Wed and 75% Thurs for 26m. 30m PS possible with a stronger wed/thur 100m+ OD 370m/$53m OW likely at this point unless PS are front loaded like a teen romance flick since F1 did skew up to older girls and women which frontload big sometimes. PSm could be less than 3x in that case Edited November 18, 2019 by POTUS 2020 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 F2 2 days out PS at 10.5m +50% at end of Tues still in line for 25-30m PS, $50m+ OW 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Poor day today. Unless it rebound tomorrow, gonna miss ¥100mn OD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 So how's TROS buzz in China? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Valonqar said: So how's TROS buzz in China? I doubt there is any 2 hours ago, Jedi Jat said: Poor day today. Unless it rebound tomorrow, gonna miss ¥100mn OD up 43% is within the norm, should be 75-80% tomorrow. 100% possible F2 1 day out 15m+ 43% Expect 26.5m final PS. 30m possible The PSm could be 4x. I wouldn't be surprised if it was under 3x. Most importantly is the rating. It will need a 9.5 to blow up a bit $50m OW still likely, but under $40m could happen if PS are heavy or not well received as we have seen with other movies lately. Edited November 20, 2019 by POTUS 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said: I doubt there is any Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edroger3 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 3 hours ago, Valonqar said: So how's TROS buzz in China? LOOL Nil .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Seems like 25mn final PS. Awful last two days. Opening day could be 85-90mn. Though things can change drastically depending on score and evening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
