Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, POTUS 2020 said:

That could backfire. They always give OD extra shows. They will have less shows on Friday now which could then hurt Saturday shows. 

Exactly this, this is what I was thinking. Just like Kung Fu Panda 3 which decided to release days before CNY and then had literally no showtimes when the CNY movies were released; despite KFP3 having better WoM than any single CNY movie release.

[Legion Again]

The big brain play is to release on Saturday to steal the showtimes from the Friday openers  

[danhtruong5]

Saturday presale:

Frozen 2 is ahead of Jumanji 3 so far and seems to only behind the 3 new releases

Edited December 13, 2019 by danhtruong5

[pepsa]

7 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

That could backfire. They always give OD extra shows. They will have less shows on Friday now which could then hurt Saturday shows. 

I agree

Disney must be convinced it's better (doesn't mean it will, we have a lot of date on studio's making stupid decisions) but at least they have to be convinced  by it other wise they woudn't do it.

Edited December 13, 2019 by pepsa

[pepsa]

IP4

Fri:     3.50m                     44.4k shows

 

SW9   T-4

Wed:   1.79m (+570k)       12.9k (+3.9k)

Thu:     835k  (+270k)       14.7k (+5.6k)

Fri:       1.11m  (+530k)       17.1k (+5.0k)

Sat:      665k  (+235k)         7.0k (+3.8k)

 

TLJ OD:

T-5 2.53M
T-4 3.09M
T-3 4.07M
T-2 5.60M

 

Tbh SW9 is doing quite decent considering the lack of show times it has.  Still it doesn't have a lot of time left and the weekend is comming so jumps might not be super high.  I have no clue when showtimes will be added, they might be waiting to see how the new releases are doing over the weekend.  @POTUS 2020 what increases do you expect over the next days?

Also IP4 increases are pretty weak atm.

Edited December 13, 2019 by pepsa

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, pepsa said:

IP4

Fri:     3.50m                     44.4k shows

 

SW9   T-4

Wed:   1.79m (+570k)       12.9k (+3.9k)

Thu:     835k  (+270k)       14.7k (+5.6k)

Fri:       1.11m  (+530k)       17.1k (+5.0k)

Sat:      665k  (+235k)         7.0k (+3.8k)

 

TLJ OD:

T-5 2.53M
T-4 3.09M
T-3 4.07M
T-2 5.60M

 

Tbh SW9 is doing quite decent considering the lack of show times it has.  Still it doesn't have a lot of time left and the weekend is comming so jumps might not be super high.  I have no clue when showtimes will be added, they might be waiting to see how the new releases are doing over the weekend.  @POTUS 2020 what increases do you expect over the next days?

Also IP4 increases are pretty weak atm.

I assume it will get at least 100k shows on Wed, Sky Fire got 93k on thur and did 29m.  If they list 20k shows per day we should see n 50% bumps or greater.  but S50% S50% M50% T100% still doesnt get it very high though= 12m.  Could see 75% Mon and and 125%+ Tue or its a dud, or its a weekend movie or not

Edited December 13, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[TigerPaw]

Weather is too cold, doesn’t matter the IP / brand or even the actors... people are just not really keen on watching movies. Presales for all movies are weak.

[pepsa]

IP4

Fri:     3.93m                     45.8k shows

 

SW9   T-3

Wed:   2.44m (+650k)       15k (+2.1k)

Thu:    1.27m  (+392k)       17k (+2.3k)

Fri:      1.34m  (+230k)       18.5k (+1.4k)

Sat:      840k  (+175k)         7.4k (+0.4k)

 

TLJ OD:

T-5 2.53M
T-4 3.09M
T-3 4.07M
T-2 5.60M

 

Well only 3 days left, doesn't look good tbh. I think it will have huge jumps on monday and tuesday.

Edited December 15, 2019 by pepsa

[Wotad]

I dont know it was even released in China seems just like a waste but I suppose to keep the few fans it has there happy. 

 

A drop from TLJ was predicted though. 

[charlie Jatinder]

IP Man pre-sales look weak. Just $4mn at T-5 days. I don't really know how local PS work tho.

[POTUS 2020]

17 hours ago, pepsa said:

 

Well only 3 days left, doesn't look good tbh. I think it will have huge jumps on monday and tuesday.

PS arent going to go up without the shows.  I cant believe its just at 17k shows. I assumed 80k+ or just 25% would be the minimum

9 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

IP Man pre-sales look weak. Just $4mn at T-5 days. I don't really know how local PS work tho.

PS are similar to HLWD.  The ramp up is less steep at the end, 60% PS bump on the last day instead of 75% and the PSm is consistently a bit lower usually at 2.5-3x.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

PS are similar to HLWD.  The ramp up is less steep at the end, 60% PS bump on the last day instead of 75% and the PSm is consistently a bit lower usually at 2.5-3x.

So ¥20mn ish final. That would be ¥60mn OD. Less than half of 3rd.

[ymblcza]

With Sheep Without a Shepherd breaking out, there’s even smaller space for SW🤣 Maybe less than half of SWaS on OD

[pepsa]

59 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

PS arent going to go up without the shows.  I cant believe its just at 17k shows. I assumed 80k+ or just 25% would be the minimum

Idd, yesterday I just assumed they woudn't add much today because they didn't add anything on sat and weekends are always slow in China.

Tbh if it doesn't go to 35k shows tomorrow this might end in a disaster.

OD under 28m becoming more and more likely I think.

Edited December 15, 2019 by pepsa

[TigerPaw]

11 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

IP Man pre-sales look weak. Just $4mn at T-5 days. I don't really know how local PS work tho.

Ya， pretty weak presales to be honest. Many box office Analysts in the country expects much more than that. 
 

I think there are certain factors here such as

1) the crazy cold weather, where non of the movies are really doing well.
2) While the official title is “Ip Man 4:The Finale”, both Maoyan and TPP removes “the finale” from the official title, and general audiences are kinda confused as to whether this is just another episode to milk the franchise or are the filmmakers ending this. 

[TigerPaw]

To be honest, I feel that TROS should stick to Jan2020, just like the previous Two episodes. It tried too hard to squeeze in between the local films to get a December release date. 

Sheep without shepherd has a strong WoM, and I expect the same for IpMan4(I have watched it) and Feng XiaoGang’s movie which had sneak previews today. 
 

[charlie Jatinder]

FWIW TROS has ¥8mn pre-sales while IP Man 4 ¥6mn 

[charlie Jatinder]

@Olive is TROS full release on Wednesday/Thursday or just wide limited previews 

[TigerPaw]

7 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

FWIW TROS has ¥8mn pre-sales while IP Man 4 ¥6mn 

Different release date; don’t think this is the way it should be calculated.

 

Wednesday 7pm onwards TROS nation wide sneak previews and Thursday full release is my understanding

 

IpMan4 only release on Friday official.

Edited December 15, 2019 by TigerPaw

[pepsa]

IP4

Fri:     4.32m                     47.5k shows

 

SW9   T-2

Wed:   3.05m (+610k)       17.2k (+2.2k)

Thu:    1.48m  (+210k)       19.4k (+2.4k)

Fri:      1.55m  (+210k)       19.9k (+1.4k)

Sat:     1.32m  (+480k)        8.0k (+0.6k)

Sun:     680k (?)                   6.7k (+?)

 

TLJ OD:

T-5 2.53M
T-4 3.09M
T-3 4.07M
T-2 5.60M

 

 

The good thing is Sat increased 57% from yesterday and only added 600 showtimes.  TROS total ps's for the week are 8.08m or 44.3% bigger than TLJ OD presales at the same point in time.

 

EDIT: Following Tigerpaw: wednesday is only a 7pm start so not a full OD, leave me to believe showtimes won't go over 45k so maybe a 8.5m finish for wednesday. The actual OD is Thursday but that deflated by the large 'previews'.

 

The good news it's previews are way ahead of Solo's OD at the same poin in time (3.05m vs 1.65m).

Edited December 15, 2019 by pepsa