charlie Jatinder Posted August 7, 2020 Share Posted August 7, 2020 Harry Potter T-6 Days Friday: ¥3.31mn (+¥640k) on 14.9k shows Saturday: ¥940k (+¥200k) on 5.4k shows Sunday: ¥425k (+¥96k) on 3.9k shows Total: $4.67mn (+¥930k) Projections https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14veIao3B3dsFN11hxTEdpCgqkrdb9fq2PX3HiNH060s/edit?usp=drivesdk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted August 7, 2020 Share Posted August 7, 2020 Today was a bit slow, even for a Sat. Still heading towards a nice open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 For some perspective, or way @Porthos do it in Tracking thread Harry Potter T-6 Days 36.5% of Spider-man: Far From Home - ¥81.7mn 39.5% of Venom - ¥88.2mn 36.5% of Captain Marvel - ¥78.4mn 57.2% of Ant-man and the Wasp - ¥88.4mn 49.5% of Black Panther - ¥65.2mn 67.6% of Spider-man: Homecoming - ¥91mn 107.8% of Detective Pokemon - ¥82.1mn Average - ¥82.1mn Lowest - ¥65.2mn 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 Today sales looks a bit weak for Potter. However it will be from Monday when we will start seeing more concretely where the OD is going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 (edited) Harry Potter T-5 Days Friday: ¥3.9mn (+¥590k) on 16.8k shows Saturday: ¥1.13mn (+¥190k) on 6k shows Sunday: ¥498k (+¥73k) on 4.4k shows Total: $5.53mn (+¥860k) Projections https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14veIao3B3dsFN11hxTEdpCgqkrdb9fq2PX3HiNH060s/edit?usp=drivesdk Comps 35.1% of Spider-man: Far From Home - ¥78.6mn 38% of Venom - ¥84.9mn 35.1% of Captain Marvel - ¥75.5mn 55.1% of Ant-man and the Wasp - ¥85.1mn 47.5% of Black Panther - ¥62.8mn 65.1% of Spider-man: Homecoming - ¥87.6mn 92.2% of Detective Pokemon - ¥71.6mn Average - ¥78mn (-¥4.1mn) Lowest - ¥62.8mn (-¥2.4mn) Weak day for pre-sales, basically not many shows were added. I expect increase from Monday onward, still expecting ¥15-17mn final pre-sales and ¥39-45mn OD. All the comps were down, which is sorta expected, though the HP and box office fan in me want to see those numbers, but those may be bit too much 😛 Edited August 8, 2020 by charlie Jatinder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 (edited) Harry Potter T-4 Days Friday: ¥4.63mn (+¥720k) on 18.15k shows Saturday: ¥1.36mn (+¥230k) on 6.6k shows Sunday: ¥605k (+¥107k) on 4.8k shows Total: $6.6mn (+¥1.07mn) Projections https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14veIao3B3dsFN11hxTEdpCgqkrdb9fq2PX3HiNH060s/edit?usp=drivesdk Comps 33.8% of Spider-man: Far From Home - ¥76mn 35.2% of Venom - ¥79mn 31.9% of Captain Marvel - ¥69mn 55% of Ant-man and the Wasp - ¥85mn 45.3% of Black Panther - ¥60mn 75% of Detective Pokemon - ¥57mn Average - ¥71mn (-¥7mn) Lowest - ¥57mn (-¥5.8mn) Another slow day, but not much to worry. Should see jump from tomorrow onward when shows will start increase. I am still expecting ¥15-17mn final pre-sales and ¥39-45mn OD. Will see if weekdays could improve them. The comps are all decreasing from last 2-3 days, but usually for CBMs show count go 2.25-2.5x from T-4 Days, expecting atleast 3.25-3.5x for Potter for around 60-65k shows. So may be they may not decrease that much. Edited August 9, 2020 by charlie Jatinder 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rogerio Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 How much do you expect for OW? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Potter numbers on Maoyan are faulty. It was 5.55mn at 19:00 CST and same at 21:00 CST. Then it unfroze to 5.78mn and now there from last 2 hours. I guess 5.9-5.95mn mostly. Will wait if it unfreeze. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 (edited) Harry Potter T-3 Days Friday: ¥6mn (+¥1.37mn) on 20.7k shows (Est.) Saturday: ¥1.83mn (+¥470k) on 7.9k shows Sunday: ¥0.89mn (+¥260k) on 5.6k shows Total: ¥8.72mn (+¥2.12mn) Projections https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14veIao3B3dsFN11hxTEdpCgqkrdb9fq2PX3HiNH060s/edit?usp=drivesdk Comps 33% of Spider-man: Far From Home - ¥75mn 33% of Venom - ¥74mn 28% of Captain Marvel - ¥61mn 45% of Black Panther - ¥60mn 67% of Detective Pokemon - ¥51mn Average - ¥64mn (-¥7mn) Lowest - ¥51mn (-¥6mn) Good jump today, despite not major growth in showcount. Need to continue the trend for next 3 days. Capacity limitation is increased to 50% from Friday so that should help too. Projections show ¥17mn final PS, I think that will be it, unless we are in for pleasant surprise. OD ¥42.5-47.5mn, Weekend ¥135-160mn ($19.5-23mn). Will be biggest Hollywood film of 2020 in first weekend. Billion Dollar also during weekend. Edited August 10, 2020 by charlie Jatinder 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 (edited) What a shitty day. Only ¥640k so far. Expectations were ¥1.7-1.8mn atleast. Unless Maoyan was faulty throughout day and get normalise during night. Edit: Speak of the devil. The moment of posting this Maoyan jump by ¥50k. Edited August 11, 2020 by charlie Jatinder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 (edited) The Eight Hundred previews pre-sales quite good. OD sales open as well, will cross ¥1mn today. Edited August 11, 2020 by charlie Jatinder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Harry Potter T-2 Days Friday: ¥7.6mn (+¥1.58mn) on 28.2k shows (Est.) Saturday: ¥2.33mn (+¥500k) on 12k shows Sunday: ¥1.12mn (+¥240k) on 5.6k shows Total: ¥11.05mn (+¥2.28mn) Projections https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14veIao3B3dsFN11hxTEdpCgqkrdb9fq2PX3HiNH060s/edit?usp=drivesdk Average day but donno how much adjustment Maoyan need. No change in OD protection though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Maoyan did normalize at night, but still on the slow side with about ¥1.45M today. Still heading for a big weekend but my expectations are definitely lowering a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 (edited) Harry Potter T-1 Days Midnight: ¥0.15mn (+¥0.03mn) on 180 shows Friday: ¥9.7mn (+¥2.2mn) on 41k shows Est. Saturday: ¥3.3mn (+¥1mn) on 21k shows Sunday: ¥1.65mn (+¥530k) on 14.2k shows Total: ¥14.7mn (+¥3.65mn) Projections https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14veIao3B3dsFN11hxTEdpCgqkrdb9fq2PX3HiNH060s/edit#gid=860514152 Decent day, after pretty average yesterday. Expecting ¥14.5-15mn final pre-sales for OD. No change in projection. Edited August 12, 2020 by charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 (edited) The Eight Hundred T-8 Days Previews (14th August): ¥3.8mn on 4.4k shows Friday: ¥1.55mn (+¥540k) on 32k shows Saturday: ¥0.73mn (+¥350k) on 12.3k shows Sunday: ¥0.6mn (+¥300k) on 10.1k shows Total: ¥2.88mn Good sales this far out. But will wait for some days to say something concrete. For now I guess ¥100mn OD is quite possible. Previews will hit ¥10-13mn IMO. Love You Forever T-12 Days Friday: ¥9.4mn (+¥1.7mn) on 31.4k shows A romantic one day wonder film for Valentines Day (remember the Chinese date which say I Love You). Comparing with last year rom flick Line Walker 2 on same day, this is way ahead. That film opened with ¥175mn had only ¥0.8mn sales from 16.5k shows this far out. Final PS were ¥39.2mn, so PSm of 4.4x. Go figure. I guess safe to assume this will open ¥150mn plus, may be ¥200mn. You may say, but Jatinder there will be 800 too right. Yeah, last year film had NeZha, and NeZha did over ¥250mn. Edited August 12, 2020 by charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Love You Forever is more like Long Day's Journey Into Night & Love Apartment in pre-sale performance. The Eight Hundred is doing good at this point, but it's unpredictable because...... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 ¥11.7mn so far. Shall go for ¥14.5-15mn final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Alright certain to go over ¥15mn now. Most likely ¥15.25mn final PS. Expecting ¥40-45mn OD. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Alright certain to go over ¥15mn now. Most likely ¥15.25mn final PS. Expecting ¥40-45mn OD. potter ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Harry Potter Final Friday: ¥15.25mn (+¥5.75mn) on 61k shows Est. Saturday: ¥4.8mn (+¥1.5mn) on 35k shows Sunday: ¥2.25mn (+¥0.6mn) on 23k shows Total: ¥22.3mn (+¥7.85mn) Very good pre-sales. Right where we expected in starting of the run. Double of Interstellar for OD. Expecting ¥40mn OD. Saturday and Sunday PS are also good so OD won't be too frontloaded. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
