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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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3 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

According to official BO system, Fri pre-sale looks like

 

Mulan - 11M

800 - 9M

 

it would be interesting to see who win the daily box office

Maoyan gap is huge. 14 and 6. Dengata is 12 and 6. 

I think Maoyan is overshooting Maoyan. At 12 perhaps 35mn OD. 800 from 6 should easily do 45mn.

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7 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

According to official BO system, Fri pre-sale looks like

 

Mulan - 11M

800 - 9M

 

it would be interesting to see who win the daily box office

if it’s so close, definitely 800 will win. New film opening always have lower PSM, unless Mulan behaves more like an old film due to the piracy.. 

 

Anyway the impact of piracy is obvious and extremely detrimental. I searched Mulan in Chinese on weibo and cannot go pass 3 posts without seeing 1 post showing screenshot of the film on their tv / smart phone; with captions of their review... 

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Wonder Woman 1984 T-8 Days

 

Midnight -  ¥0.24mn on 2543 shows

Friday - ¥0.80mn (+¥0.61mn) on 33k shows

Saturday - ¥0.24mn (+¥0.19mn) on 15k shows

Sunday - ¥0.06mn (+0.03mn) on 12.5k shows

 

Total - ¥1.34mn (+¥0.83mn)

 

Comps

 

They don't mean much this far out. May start making some sense by T-4 days perhaps.

 

15% of Spider-man: Far From Home T-8 Days (3 days of Sale) - ¥34mn Opening Day

17.5% of Venom T-8 Days (5 days of Sale) - ¥39mn OD

47% of Aquaman T-7 Days (1 day of Sale) - ¥74mn OD

78% of TENET T-7 Days (1 day of Sale) - ¥44mn OD

 

The sales aren't showing any rush for now as such. Of course these early numbers don't mean as much as the Wednesday and Thursday before release do, but still a big opener CBM will show some rush. Let's see how it pick up in coming days. If I have to guess, less than ¥100mn OD may be for sure. Don't see it crossing TENET in first weekend as of now as @Gavin Feng said. Any specific reason for lower rush Gavin?

 

Projections

 

Take with huge grain of salt.

Spoiler

Time
Wonder Woman 1984 Aquaman
Gross Change Gross Change
T-9 Days ¥0.19      
T-8 Days ¥0.80 ¥0.61    
T-7 Days ¥1.45 ¥0.65 ¥1.66  
T-6 Days ¥2.14 ¥0.69 ¥5.13 ¥3.47
T-5 Days ¥2.77 ¥0.64 ¥6.56 ¥1.43
T-4 Days ¥3.62 ¥0.85 ¥8.17 ¥1.61
T-3 Days ¥5.04 ¥1.42 ¥9.99 ¥1.82
T-2 Days ¥7.34 ¥2.30 ¥13.16 ¥3.17
T-1 Days ¥11.73 ¥4.39 ¥19.46 ¥6.30
T-0 Days ¥20.22 ¥8.49 ¥33.79 ¥14.33
         
OD ¥65.71 ¥156.82
PSm 3.25 4.64

 

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Ahhh, so nice to have some concrete numbers for a blockbuster again. I would normally track WW84 in SK, but my impression is that the market is back to being pretty covid impacted, unlike China and Japan.   
 

I wonder if some people in China are just waiting for the HD rips on the 25th. If so it makes the whole hybrid model very tough, for WB and anyone else who tries it.

Edited by WandaLegion
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2 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

I wonder if some people in China are just waiting for the HD rips on the 25th. If so it makes the whole hybrid model very tough, for WB and anyone else who tries it.

That is one big factor.

 

But then I see, in years we have seen Chinese lapping up re-releases like new releases. Harry Potter pre-sales were big. Spirited Away release last year had really good pre-sales. All of those films have Blu Rays out for years. Been 8 years, but Titanic did over $100mn in re-release. 

 

So not sure if that factor is stopping even fans from rushing for tickets. That brings the question. Mulan, opened 55mn, which now looks HUGE after seeing WW84 initial advance, a week later it was bashed universally and HD rips were out. Just how much did Disney fucked up by not releasing it 2 weeks earlier.

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I'm sure I can say WW84 is lower than my expectation after two days selling. I'm not making a conclusion on whether it means flop or not. But its pre-sale performance still doesn't show a trend that could lead to the pre-sale level of Aquaman -- remember the James Wan's title was very "weak" in advance ticket sale in terms of most ¥1 billion-plus Hollywood blockbusters.

 

I was hoping WW84 would be a front-loaded movie -- strong pre-sale and opening with average legs. If current trend continues, the most likely way it still could hit my forecast of $140-160M lifetime is having a long-term run with 9.4+ audience score on Maoyan. I don't always expect that miracle for Hollywood titles, especially crazy competitions coming later. I think it deserve better, and it still has some time to speed up.

 

title   final pre-sale   opening   lifetime

 

AQM     ¥65M          ¥652M          ¥2,013M

Tenet     ¥38M          ¥205M          ¥456M

 

TENET didn't start selling until 7 days before debut. WW84 might not be much higher than TENET for final pre-sale if it keeps current trend.

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by the way(I mean this is actually the whole point of this DEC), A Little Red Flower already hit ¥1M in pre-sale after 3~4 hours selling. It would top WW84 in another few hours and top any other DEC titles before next week. Yes, a drama on Dec.31 beat others on Dec.25 & Dec.18. 

Edited by Gavin Feng
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1 minute ago, WandaLegion said:

From progress so far today, I would guess 1.35 for OD at end of today and ~20 for final OS PS. But it’s still fairly early, maybe next few days will overperform.

That's what I hope right now. If audience don't even go to see WW84, I don't know which 2021 WB title could attract them to go cinema. Free HD piracies are waving and say hello.

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The problem is that for non fanbase films or family/kids heavy films we may go with narrative like, "lets see if it pick up". But for a CBMs pre-sales rush can be seen from day one, especially for something like WW which was expected to do $150mn range. 

 

So I am not sure how much pick up can we really expect. The one reason could be that may be people didn't know advance is open, that has happened with few films, but after two days, there should be some pick up in pace.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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