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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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On 12/18/2020 at 11:55 PM, The GOAT said:

so uhh were the presales faked for The Rescue? or no?   

Looks to be #1 for the weekend. 

The OD presales included some fake sales, but they decreased as a % as real sales grew (as normal). Sat and Sun didn’t have fake sales in the first place and had been showing it as near WW84, so with the difference in reception it’s no surprise that the Rescue won handily.

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Don't know what really to expect from A Little Red Flower due to uncertainty of shows. @Gavin Feng didn't clarify that, are shows om 31st from 6 PM to Midnight only, or 6PM to 6AM on 1st January or Midnight to 6AM.

 

Assuming its 1st case, there are 160k shows during 6PM to Midnight, may be A Little Red Flower get 100k of them, or may be 110k. That will give capacity of 530-585mn, may be ALRF do 50-60% of the capacity for 265-350mn day.

 

Pre-sales for 1st Jan are quite great. T-9 days, they were 9.25mn Approx. Usually CBMs are 3mn range by then for their OD. 1st Jan should easily clear 400mn IMO unless WOM is shit. May be even 450-500.

 

Thinking 
275

450

390

300

 

Total: 1415mn or $215mn

 

Unless its a film that crash after holidays 😛

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3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Don't know what really to expect from A Little Red Flower due to uncertainty of shows. @Gavin Feng didn't clarify that, are shows om 31st from 6 PM to Midnight only, or 6PM to 6AM on 1st January or Midnight to 6AM.

 

Assuming its 1st case, there are 160k shows during 6PM to Midnight, may be A Little Red Flower get 100k of them, or may be 110k. That will give capacity of 530-585mn, may be ALRF do 50-60% of the capacity for 265-350mn day.

 

Pre-sales for 1st Jan are quite great. T-9 days, they were 9.25mn Approx. Usually CBMs are 3mn range by then for their OD. 1st Jan should easily clear 400mn IMO unless WOM is shit. May be even 450-500.

 

Thinking 
275

450

390

300

 

Total: 1415mn or $215mn

 

Unless its a film that crash after holidays 😛

 

FRI, SAT SUN might not be far higher than THU previews. Although previews started from 6pm, it's actually a better distribution strategy because theaters would arrange more during evening period. Let other films to enjoy daytime showtimes.

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4 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

FRI, SAT SUN might not be far higher than THU previews. Although previews started from 6pm, it's actually a better distribution strategy because theaters would arrange more during evening period. Let other films to enjoy daytime showtimes.

It will be hard to see if 1st Jan miss that but yeah may be, if shows on 1st are par 31st Dec only, then possible.

 

In same calendar setting, Detective Chinatown in 2015 did

 

previews: 48

31st: 92 (49k shows)

1st: 114 (50k show)

Sat: 99 (48k shows)

Sun: 73 (47k shows)

 

Total: 378 (427 inc previews)

 

It legged to 823mn, which if ALRF follows will be 2.9B or $443mn at current ER. If ER improves by say 0.1 points, that will be $451mn, and may be it gives 800 & Demon Slayer a fight for top WW grosser of 2020.

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ALRF 31st Dec pre-sales are great, but what I am more happy is 1st Jan pre-sales

 

ALRF 1st Jan pre-sales are currently 40% higher than My People, My Country National day pre-sales. MPMC grossed 388mn on National day. Expecting at least 450mn on 1st Jan from ALRF.

 

If 31st get 100k shows, we may be looking at 325mn Approx Thursday. 

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After a not so great Day 1 of pre-sales, Day 2 is really good for Detective Chinatown 3.

 

<iframe width="100%" height="500" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQeYCxFjCOf7ECULVp8rzmpuo6BSerz1LtsKvsBvXUKVmvc37dycGm0T96UUImpmWCxfDncA5PeH9C-/pubhtml?gid=943500212&amp;single=true&amp;widget=true&amp;headers=false"></iframe>

 

 

Edited by jatvision
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On 1/24/2019 at 2:01 PM, peludo said:

T-12 Days 2019 CNY

 

Crazy Alien: 54.6m Yuan

Pegasus: 52.9m

The new king of comedy: 41.6m

The Wandering Earth: 17.0m

The knight of shadows: 12.0m

Integrity: 10.9m

Peppa Pig: 8.0m

Boonie Bears: 6.1m

T-12 Days 2021 CNY

 

Detective Chinatown 3 - 85M

Hi, Mom - 15.7M

A Writer's Odyssey - 5.7M

The YinYang Master - 4.3M

Endgame - 3M

Boonie Bears - 1.8M

Nezha Reborn - 1.8M

 

Total - 118.5M (-42%)

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3 hours ago, jatvision said:

T-12 Days 2021 CNY

 

Detective Chinatown 3 - 85M

Hi, Mom - 15.7M

A Writer's Odyssey - 5.7M

The YinYang Master - 4.3M

Endgame - 3M

Boonie Bears - 1.8M

Nezha Reborn - 1.8M

 

Total - 118.5M (-42%)

At the end all depends on quality and WOM. Wandering Earth, ranking 4th 12 days before release, grossed over $650m. Let's wait and see. DC3 could go as low as 2 billion yuan or who knows if beating Wolf Warrior...

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10 hours ago, jatvision said:

Opening Day Pre-sales in China (in 2 days or T-12 Days)

1. Detective Chinatown 3 - ¥85M
2. Monster Hunt 2 - ¥83M
3. Avengers: Endgame - ¥66M
4. Crazy Alien - ¥54M
5. Pegasus - ¥52M

I think I should add Midnight in Opening Day as they are purely midnight and for Endgame were massive enough to affect opening day sales.

 

Endgame sales were

 

Day 1 (T-11 Days) - ¥38M + ¥52M = ¥90M

Day 2 (T-10 Days) - ¥66M + ¥65M = ¥131M

 

Also adding opening days of above for reference

 

1. Avengers: Endgame - ¥728M (5.6x)

2. Monster Hunt 2 - ¥547M (6.6x)

3. The Fate of the Furious - ¥480M 

4. Avengers: Infinity War - ¥447M

5. Crazy Alien - ¥410M (7.6x)

 

Pegasus - ¥322M (6.2x)

 

Edited by jatvision
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Detective Chinatown 3 T-11 Days

 

Friday - ¥108M (+¥23M) on 94.4K shows

Saturday - ¥12.8M (+¥3.7M) on 38K shows

Sunday - ¥6.2M (+¥1.4M) on 23K shows

 

Total - ¥127M or $20M

 

Great day. Now biggest T-11 days pre-seller for opening day while 2nd biggest for 3 days of sales behind Avengers: Endgame (T-9 Days).  Maintaining 38% show count, which shall give it final number around 175-190K shows. 

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