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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Excellent start for the day. ¥8.05M at 12:30, adding ¥1.9M in last 3.5 hours or so. Should easily be ¥13M plus at end of day, may be even ¥14-15M. Better than the target I set for it at ¥12M.

 

14:00 - ¥9.2M 

 

Roughly ¥750K run rate. Really good. ¥15M shouldn't be hassle. Probably ¥16M.

10,5 at 4pm

 

 

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4 hours ago, efialtes76 said:

Maoyan seems frozen now...

Frozen is for Disney. KongZilla is doing awesome numbers and will go for around 17 mill PS by the end of tuesday

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Crossed the optimistic target of 15M as well. Will probably be finaling at 16.25M at midnight. Nice 10.5M plus T-2nd day. Tomorrow probably add another 12-13M for 28-29M and then 55M range final.

 

Using 3.4x 185M OD is likely, OW probably around 600-650M ($93-100M) realistically, while 525-550M ($80-85M) pessimistically. 

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Weekend Admits

 

Kong: Skull Island - 14.05M

Godzilla: King of the Monster - 12.6M (big drop on Sunday)

 

15M would be a good target for GvK. That's about where realistic projection are in term of gross too.

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Godzilla vs Kong T-2 Days

 

Friday - ¥16.25M (+¥10.65M) on 117K shows

Saturday - ¥5.2M (+¥3.8M) on 73K shows

Sunday - ¥1.8M (+¥1.3M) on 59K shows

 

Total - ¥23.25M ($3.6M)

 

As explained above. Heading for ¥55M final pre-sales. May be more. Opening day of ¥180-200M.

 

<iframe width="502" height="326" seamless frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQeYCxFjCOf7ECULVp8rzmpuo6BSerz1LtsKvsBvXUKVmvc37dycGm0T96UUImpmWCxfDncA5PeH9C-/pubchart?oid=160559906&amp;format=interactive"></iframe>

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Looks like 27 mill~ish OD PS by midnight

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Yeah 27 seems like it. Really good penultimate day of 11M on standalone. Double of KoTM and around 1.6x of Kong.

 

I added Midnight to OD of the other 2 films to make it fair comparison.

 

Time Godzilla vs Kong Godzilla: King of Monster Kong: Skull Island
  Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change
T-13     ¥2.13      
T-12     ¥2.38 11.74%    
T-11     ¥2.64 10.92%    
T-10     ¥2.83 7.20%    
T-9     ¥3.13 10.60%    
T-8     ¥4.27 36.42% ¥2.76  
T-7     ¥4.66 9.13% ¥4.00 44.93%
T-6     ¥5.30 13.73% ¥5.10 27.50%
T-5     ¥6.10 15.09% ¥6.50 27.45%
T-4     ¥7.50 22.95% ¥7.65 17.69%
T-3 ¥5.61   ¥11.30 50.67% ¥9.92 29.67%
T-2 ¥16.22 189.13% ¥14.50 28.32% ¥13.02 31.25%
T-1 ¥27.00 66.46% ¥19.80 36.55% ¥20.23 55.38%
Final ¥55.00 103.70% ¥40.37 103.89% ¥44.00 117.50%
             
OD ¥187.00 ¥144.77 ¥159.90
PSm 3.40 3.59 3.63
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33.5M at 16:00. Added around 4.5M in last 5 hours, roughly 900k per hour. It's not bad but just not too good of increase for rate on Tuesday. 

Seems like 46-48M final pre-sales. 165M OD may be with 3.5x PSm. That will be lower admits than last 2 films. Seems to around my lower limit of $80M weekend if things don't improve.

 

I know $80M is big number and everyone will treat it that way, but it could have been more. Sort of trailer it had, 15M admits should have been done. May be HBO Max is taking some bizz here.

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4 minutes ago, Menor said:

19:00 it's 37.3 million. Is the final number being used for PSm counting until 3am or until midnight. 

Using midnight but can be using both if there's major difference between two.

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37 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

43M at 22:10. Roughly 1.75M per hour run rate. Next 2 hours should see 2M per hour rate. 47M final PS.

Under 80M OW is a possibility. Should have done 90+ if not 100. Kinda disappointing. To think this could have been much bigger pre covid times. They should have released Kong skull island in 2016/17, KOTM in  2017/18 and this in 2018/19. 

Edited by marveldcfox
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44 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

43M at 22:10. Roughly 1.75M per hour run rate. Next 2 hours should see 2M per hour rate. 47M final PS.

More like 46 I guess. Unless the last hour really speeds up. 

Edited by Menor
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