charlie Jatinder Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 Fast 9 T-8 Days Midnight - ¥4.5M on 13K shows Friday - ¥11.6M (+¥2.4M) on 112K shows Saturday - ¥4.1M on 70K shows Sunday - ¥1.59M on 59K shows Total - ¥21.8M Comp OD 60% of The Fate of the Furious - ¥250M 152% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥378M Usually I would be going with under 250M with sort of drop it is having from FF8 but H&S PS were really low but then it had strong final bump and super strong PSm, so there's still a lot of grey area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 This hasn’t had a good day of sales yet. Aiming for more like 85 final PS at this rate (though final days crucial, uncertainty, etc). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 Fast 9 T-7 Days Midnight - ¥5.4M on 13K shows Friday - ¥14.2M (+¥2.6M) on 118K shows Saturday - ¥5M on 73K shows Sunday - ¥1.82M on 62K shows Total - ¥26.4M Comp OD 58% of The Fate of the Furious - ¥242M 153% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥381M MN 68% of The Fate of the Furious - ¥43M 198% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥70M Once again it improved the H&S comp but declined on FF8 comp. Weird. As I said yesterday, if there was no H&S, I will be straight out going for ¥250M OD but now there's still a chance. MN PS are some what better than OD, SAT PS are just horrible. I don't look at Saturday PS usually but just mentioning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 FF8 seems like a better comp than H&S to me. There's a difference between a spinoff and main series. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, Menor said: FF8 seems like a better comp than H&S to me. There's a difference between a spinoff and main series. If I had to pick just one, F8 for sure. But there’s also important differences to the PS behavior in terms of absolute size, and F9 seem to be hewing slightly closer to H&S there. To wit: T-13 F8/H&S geomean real/geomean T-12 ¥1.87 ¥4.12 45.44% T-11 ¥4.31 ¥5.20 82.93% T-10 ¥6.69 ¥6.55 102.10% T-9 ¥9.19 ¥9.52 96.55% T-8 ¥11.59 ¥12.09 95.85% T-7 ¥14.22 ¥15.06 94.40% T-6 ¥17.50 ¥19.42 90.13% T-5 ¥20.34 ¥23.00 88.40% T-4 ¥23.85 ¥27.42 87.00% T-3 ¥30.14 ¥35.26 85.49% T-2 ¥39.17 ¥46.29 84.62% T-1 ¥51.19 ¥60.20 85.03% Final ¥87.35 ¥100.75 86.70% Days beyond T-7 just my projection of course 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 19 minutes ago, Menor said: FF8 seems like a better comp than H&S to me. There's a difference between a spinoff and main series. I would have but I think H&S did present itself like main film. I am not really aware with the specifics, but H&S looked better than FF9 frankly. It had Rock and Statham, that's easily bigger than Vin IMO. Others in FF films are "who?". So when H&S dropped, it wasn't just spin-off drop but the FF franchise coming back to its normal levels after 2 crazy overperformances. Ofcourse this theory will be tested in 7 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 FF8 comp is just bleeding. Today seems like will be just 40% of what FF8 did on T-6th day. H&S comp is steady. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 F9 have risk of being chased by TF5 in pre-sale. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 18 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: F9 have risk of being chased by TF5 in pre-sale. Just looked this up — great comp! I think F9 will fall behind tomorrow and also see it targeting around ¥870 at this rate. Can probably do better than 7.5 though 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Ahh so China got over FF just like Transformers. Huh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 39 minutes ago, WandaLegion said: Just looked this up — great comp! I think F9 will fall behind tomorrow and also see it targeting around ¥870 at this rate. Can probably do better than 7.5 though 🤣 Have to issue a correction here, I was reading mid run TF5 numbers off by one day. TF5 had a shorter run, much better pace, if F9 falls behind (which I do still expect) won’t be until final day or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 (edited) Fast 9 T-6 Days Midnight - ¥6.6M on 13.5K shows Friday - ¥17.7M (+¥3.5M) on 123K shows Saturday - ¥6.2M on 77K shows Sunday - ¥2.2M on 65K shows Total - ¥32.7M Comp OD 54% of The Fate of the Furious - ¥225M 154% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥383M MN 67% of The Fate of the Furious - ¥43M 196% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥69M Just awful. Worst case I suppose ¥200M OD and ¥600M OW. Best Case, well Hobbs and Shaw i.e. ¥385M OD and ¥1150M. That's the range. What's absolute worse are Saturday and Sunday numbers. Sunday numbers are even lower than Hobbs and Shaw. Edited May 14, 2021 by charlie Jatinder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 (edited) Time Fast 9 The Fate of the Furious Transformers 5 T-13 ¥2.90 T-12 ¥1.87 ¥5.04 T-11 ¥4.31 ¥6.40 T-10 ¥6.69 ¥8.24 T-9 ¥9.19 ¥14.20 T-8 ¥11.60 ¥19.24 ¥2.47 T-7 ¥14.22 ¥24.40 ¥6.31 T-6 ¥17.70 ¥32.87 ¥9.35 T-5 ¥20.89 ¥39.31 ¥13.23 T-4 ¥24.72 ¥47.42 ¥17.04 T-3 ¥31.38 ¥62.15 ¥21.54 T-2 ¥41.24 ¥81.94 ¥40.70 T-1 ¥55.74 ¥103.00 ¥55.14 Final ¥102.34 ¥158.00 ¥94.19 OD ¥260.97 ¥417.07 ¥289.59 PSm 2.55 2.64 3.07 Edited May 14, 2021 by charlie Jatinder 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Consensus in local industry 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RRA Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 13 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said: Ahh so China got over FF just like Transformers. Huh. Right now Marvel might be nervous 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 (edited) 42 minutes ago, RRA said: Right now Marvel might be nervous I don't think Marvel will be that nervous. China isnt only place FF film will decline. As for overall market, GvK showed that market isn't dead and MCU is fanbase franchise which keep on growing. Even if for sake of argument, a normal MCU movie do like 10-20% of its global box office in China while FF does like 25-35%, so not as big concern for MCU as FF. Edited May 15, 2021 by charlie Jatinder 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 1 hour ago, RRA said: Right now Marvel might be nervous Disney: How do you know we're doing things about insulting China 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Fast 9 T-5 Days Midnight - ¥7.6M on 13.5K shows Friday - ¥21M (+¥3.3M) on 125K shows Saturday - ¥7.6M on 80K shows Sunday - ¥2.5M on 65K shows Total - ¥38.7M ($6M) Comp OD 53% of The Fate of the Furious - ¥223M 156% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥388M MN 67% of The Fate of the Furious - ¥43M 195% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥69M Same description. Its funny how OD comp keep decreasing for FF8 and increasing for H&S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 F9 does now fall behind TF5 at the same point in advance ticket sale of opening weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
