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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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Fast 9 T-8 Days

 

Midnight - ¥4.5M on 13K shows

Friday - ¥11.6M (+¥2.4M) on 112K shows

Saturday - ¥4.1M on 70K shows

Sunday - ¥1.59M on 59K shows

 

Total - ¥21.8M

 

Comp

OD

60% of The Fate of the Furious -  ¥250M

152% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥378M

 

Usually I would be going with under 250M with sort of drop it is having from FF8 but H&S PS were really low but then it had strong final bump and super strong PSm, so there's still a lot of grey area. 

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Fast 9 T-7 Days

 

Midnight - ¥5.4M on 13K shows

Friday - ¥14.2M (+¥2.6M) on 118K shows

Saturday - ¥5M on 73K shows

Sunday - ¥1.82M on 62K shows

 

Total - ¥26.4M

 

Comp

OD

58% of The Fate of the Furious -  ¥242M

153% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥381M

 

MN

68% of The Fate of the Furious - ¥43M

198% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥70M

 

Once again it improved the H&S comp but declined on FF8 comp. Weird. As I said yesterday, if there was no H&S, I will be straight out going for ¥250M OD but now there's still a chance.

 

MN PS are some what better than OD, SAT PS are just horrible. I don't look at Saturday PS usually but just mentioning.

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FF8 seems like a better comp than H&S to me. There's a difference between a spinoff and main series. 

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12 minutes ago, Menor said:

FF8 seems like a better comp than H&S to me. There's a difference between a spinoff and main series. 

If I had to pick just one, F8 for sure. But there’s also important differences to the PS behavior in terms of absolute size, and F9 seem to be hewing slightly closer to H&S there.  
 

To wit:

T-13  
F8/H&S geomean
real/geomean
T-12 ¥1.87 ¥4.12 45.44%
T-11 ¥4.31 ¥5.20 82.93%
T-10 ¥6.69 ¥6.55 102.10%
T-9 ¥9.19 ¥9.52 96.55%
T-8 ¥11.59 ¥12.09 95.85%
T-7 ¥14.22 ¥15.06 94.40%
T-6 ¥17.50 ¥19.42 90.13%
T-5 ¥20.34 ¥23.00 88.40%
T-4 ¥23.85 ¥27.42 87.00%
T-3 ¥30.14 ¥35.26 85.49%
T-2 ¥39.17 ¥46.29 84.62%
T-1 ¥51.19 ¥60.20 85.03%
Final ¥87.35 ¥100.75 86.70%


Days beyond T-7 just my projection of course

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19 minutes ago, Menor said:

FF8 seems like a better comp than H&S to me. There's a difference between a spinoff and main series. 

I would have but I think H&S did present itself like main film. I am not really aware with the specifics, but H&S looked better than FF9 frankly. It had Rock and Statham, that's easily bigger than Vin IMO. Others in FF films are "who?".

 

So when H&S dropped, it wasn't just spin-off drop but the FF franchise coming back to its normal levels after 2 crazy overperformances.

 

Ofcourse this theory will be tested in 7 days.

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18 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

F9 have risk of being chased by TF5 in pre-sale.

Just looked this up — great comp! I think F9 will fall behind tomorrow and also see it targeting around ¥870 at this rate. Can probably do better than 7.5 though 🤣

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39 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Just looked this up — great comp! I think F9 will fall behind tomorrow and also see it targeting around ¥870 at this rate. Can probably do better than 7.5 though 🤣

Have to issue a correction here, I was reading mid run TF5 numbers off by one day. TF5 had a shorter run, much better pace, if F9 falls behind (which I do still expect) won’t be until final day or two.

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Posted (edited)

Fast 9 T-6 Days

 

Midnight - ¥6.6M on 13.5K shows

Friday - ¥17.7M (+¥3.5M) on 123K shows

Saturday - ¥6.2M on 77K shows

Sunday - ¥2.2M on 65K shows

 

Total - ¥32.7M

 

Comp

OD

54% of The Fate of the Furious -  ¥225M

154% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥383M

 

MN

67% of The Fate of the Furious - ¥43M

196% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥69M

 

Just awful. Worst case I suppose ¥200M OD and ¥600M OW. Best Case, well Hobbs and Shaw i.e. ¥385M OD and ¥1150M. That's the range. 

 

What's absolute worse are Saturday and Sunday numbers. Sunday numbers are even lower than Hobbs and Shaw.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Posted (edited)

Time Fast 9 The Fate of the Furious Transformers 5
T-13   ¥2.90  
T-12 ¥1.87 ¥5.04  
T-11 ¥4.31 ¥6.40  
T-10 ¥6.69 ¥8.24  
T-9 ¥9.19 ¥14.20  
T-8 ¥11.60 ¥19.24 ¥2.47
T-7 ¥14.22 ¥24.40 ¥6.31
T-6 ¥17.70 ¥32.87 ¥9.35
T-5 ¥20.89 ¥39.31 ¥13.23
T-4 ¥24.72 ¥47.42 ¥17.04
T-3 ¥31.38 ¥62.15 ¥21.54
T-2 ¥41.24 ¥81.94 ¥40.70
T-1 ¥55.74 ¥103.00 ¥55.14
Final ¥102.34 ¥158.00 ¥94.19
       
OD ¥260.97 ¥417.07 ¥289.59
PSm 2.55 2.64 3.07
Edited by charlie Jatinder
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13 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ahh so China got over FF just like Transformers. Huh.

Right now Marvel might be nervous 

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Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, RRA said:

Right now Marvel might be nervous 

I don't think Marvel will be that nervous. China isnt only place FF film will decline. As for overall market, GvK showed that market isn't dead and MCU is fanbase franchise which keep on growing. 

 

Even if for sake of argument, a normal MCU movie do like 10-20% of its global box office in China while FF does like 25-35%, so not as big concern for MCU as FF.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Fast 9 T-5 Days

 

Midnight - ¥7.6M on 13.5K shows

Friday - ¥21M (+¥3.3M) on 125K shows

Saturday - ¥7.6M on 80K shows

Sunday - ¥2.5M on 65K shows

 

Total - ¥38.7M ($6M)

 

Comp

OD

53% of The Fate of the Furious -  ¥223M

156% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥388M

 

MN

67% of The Fate of the Furious - ¥43M

195% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥69M

 

Same description. Its funny how OD comp keep decreasing for FF8 and increasing for H&S.

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