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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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29 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Does it? On Maoyan app I’m seeing TF5 at 21.55 the same distance out

Gavin tracks overall pre-sales while we track OD PS.

 

Its OD PS that matters usually unless SAT is being big as eventually on Friday WOM will decide where SAT will go, no matter how big or small PS were.

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

This gotta be most accurate to projection run I have tracked in while. Every day is right where it was expected a day before.

Maoyan data people saw your post just like Deadline.

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Fast 9 T-4 Days

 

Midnight - ¥9M on 13.8K shows

Friday - ¥25M (+¥4M) on 128K shows

Saturday - ¥9.2M on 83K shows

Sunday - ¥2.8M on 65K shows

 

Total - ¥46M ($7.15M)

 

Comp

OD

52.6% of The Fate of the Furious -  ¥219M

158% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥393M

 

MN

67% of The Fate of the Furious - ¥43M

197% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥69M

 

Same. Same. Same.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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What F9 make in advance ticket sale is now:

 

- 161% of H&S. (¥1080M opening)

- 96% of TF5. (¥836M opening)

- 50% of F8. (¥676M opening)

- 29% of IW (¥368M opening)

 

It doesn't seem like that F9 could hit ¥400M daily mark. Actually, it's not even very clear if it could make ¥300M and ¥350M on FRI and SAT, respectively. In other words, ¥1B opening is very unlikely from what we've seen. 

 

¥900M opening somehow is not a great target either. It usually require a import movie to make ¥180M-plus in advance ticket sale considering the formula: ad ticket sale / opening weekend > 20% (mostly it's for huge movies)

 

¥800M-level opening should be the most likely result at this point. Even if its SAT is just ¥300M, it's not hard for the movie to do ¥230M on FRI or SUN with conservative prediction of ¥40M from midnights. Of course, it would be another story if WOM is not well.

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And it's fair to say that this is a bad sign for HLW in some ways. When local blockbusters are looking at 3 or 4 or 5 billion lifetime even Wolf Warrior 2, the era of 2 billion of HLW is leaving(maybe they never really enter that period). 

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4 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

And it's fair to say that this is a bad sign for HLW in some ways. When local blockbusters are looking at 3 or 4 or 5 billion lifetime even Wolf Warrior 2, the era of 2 billion of HLW is leaving(maybe they never really enter that period). 

TBH I was actually expecting this drop, not withstanding any general decline for Hollywood. There was decline in almost all markets for FF8 and there was gonna be a drop for F9 as well.

 

I think GvK showed that market isnt dead for Hollywood, though decline is there as most countries saw it beating Kong: Skull Island but China fall short of K:SI admits. 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Another day going exactly as expected. I was basing the trend on Hobbs and Shaw, which had very backloaded pre-sales for franchise and surprisingly BIG PSm for the franchise. I hope PSm won't be that crazy but I guess we may see a 2.8-3x PSm instead of 2.65x of FF8.

 

If the PS trend continue to behave as how Hobbs and Shaw projection is telling, it will have 105M OD PS and from there 2.8-3x gives 295-315M OD.

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28 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

TBH I was actually expecting this drop, not withstanding any general decline for Hollywood. There was decline in almost all markets for FF8 and there was gonna be a drop for F9 as well.

 

I think GvK showed that market isnt dead for Hollywood, though decline is there as most countries saw it beating Kong: Skull Island but China fall short of K:SI admits. 

Agree. But still, dying to survive:ph34r:

 

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Hollywood is... on life support, in China.   
 

I see today falling a bit short with maybe 31.7, vs 32.2 projected. Expecting 95M final OD PS for maybe 275 OD. 800-900 definitely making sense for the weekend unless something notable happens with final days or reception.

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44 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Hollywood is... on life support, in China.   
 

I see today falling a bit short with maybe 31.7, vs 32.2 projected. Expecting 95M final OD PS for maybe 275 OD. 800-900 definitely making sense for the weekend unless something notable happens with final days or reception.

120-140 ow seems great to me , maybe i am being weird 😕

Edited by john2000
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28 minutes ago, john2000 said:

120-140 ow seems great to me , maybe i am being weird 😕

for any non-Avengers movie this would have been HUGE. but its also Furious 9, last film of franchise did $210M of today's currency and $240M adjusted for inflation.

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