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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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On ‎1‎/‎31‎/‎2018 at 3:27 PM, Xiaoshu said:

What to expect on MH2 final OD presale? Still 15 days to go, n already had 60M. 

It keeps going up 10% daily. Just keeping that pace will take it 257m in PS.  Should it bump 20% and 50% on the last wed and Thursday it would reach 382m. it will have many sellouts and a low PS multi. maybe just 2x.  500-750m OD based on those numbers. It could beat SW7 OD w/o previews.

The other openers combined are matching MH's PS at 82m today.  

Last year's CNY OD did 800m, with 20% more theaters and more popular movies, the first 1B day in CBO looking likely

Edited by POTUS
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10 days+ 11 hours

Monster Hunt 2  -  96.3m

Detective Chinatown  -  56.4m

 

Monster Hunt 2 is over ¥100M in overall ticket pre-sale 257 hours before opening(the earliest showtimes would start at 6:00am Feb.16), easily breaking the pre-sale record of FASTEST TO ¥100M set by The Fate of the Furious(86 hours before opening).

 

As I see it is projected to make $200-220M on 3-day debut.

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OD Pre-sale ¥50m ¥60m ¥70m ¥80m ¥90m ¥100m ¥110m ¥120m
Monster Hunt 2 17 days 15 days 13 days 12 days 11 days 10 days 9 days -
The Fate of the Furious 3 days 3 days 2 days 2 days 1 days 1 days 12 hours 9 hours
Journey to the West 2 4 days 3 days 2 days 1 days 1 days 12 hours 10 hours 6 hours
The Mermaid 3 days 2 days 1 days 1 days 13.5 hours 8.5 hours 6.5 hours 2.5 hours
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On 2/3/2018 at 7:25 PM, Mr Impossible said:

Might we be seeing our first billion dollar movie in China?

If MH2 gets a 9.7 rating it could have a shot.  It would have to do 13x a 500m OD. WW2 would have done $907m at todays XR of $1=6.26.

 

FF8 had 72% of shows, 2h20m run time. It made 487m on Saturday

 

MH2 has 38% of screens atm with a 1h59m time and should be able to squeeze 1 more show in for the day

 

I assume that there are 15% more screens since last April.  Early morning shows should have a higher PTA. 

 

JttW had 34% of shows last year and did 354m with a 1h49m run time.

 

I come up with 475-500m as a max for opening day.  Higher if it gets a larger percentage of shows.  It has nearly 50% of PS with 38% of shows

 

Edited by POTUS
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4 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Be careful, this could make Jimbo a little unhappy. His baby Avatar 2 wouldn't be the first billion $ in a single territory!

Well it would be nice, but if something else hit's it before A2, that just means A2 will make 1.1b..1.2b or more.

 

6 minutes ago, peludo said:

We will see it before A2

Hope so! What do you reckon will do it?

Edited by IronJimbo
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On 07/02/2018 at 3:38 PM, feasby007 said:

MH2 is at 121m, so hit 120m a couple hours ago (equivalent of about 10pm China time). 

 

Also Detective Chinatown is at 70.4m, so hit 70m almost a full week ahead of FF8 and JttW2.

MH2 is at 135m which is +11% over yesterday.

DC is at 80.8m which is +14% over yesterday. 

 

I think DC is increasing better because there's simply more seats available. They're at 92,419 and 61,450 shows total, so there's plenty more room to grow for both.

But for that day to be at over 275m in presales already... I think 1 billion yuan total across all films on that day is all but guaranteed at this point.

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4 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

 

MH2 is at 135m which is +11% over yesterday.

DC is at 80.8m which is +14% over yesterday. 

 

I think DC is increasing better because there's simply more seats available. They're at 92,419 and 61,450 shows total, so there's plenty more room to grow for both.

But for that day to be at over 275m in presales already... I think 1 billion yuan total across all films on that day is all but guaranteed at this point.

What's DC?

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2 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Well it would be nice, but if something else hit's it before A2, that just means A2 will make 1.1b..1.2b or more.

 

Hope so! What do you reckon will do it?

A local film. But I do not know which one (maybe someone here has any idea about which upcoming films have that potential).

 

The record of all time has increased in last 4 years in this way:

 

Transformers 4 (2014): 1.9b Yuan ($320m)

Monster Hunt (2015): 2.4b Yuan ($390m)

The Mermaid (2016): 3.3b Yuan ($525m)

Wolf Warrior 2 (2017): 5.6b Yuan ($870m, what means $900m with today ER)

 

With this trend, I find difficult that any local film can not reach 6.3b Yuan (1 billion dollars) during next 3 years.

Edited by peludo
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Best OD pre-sale

Monster Hunt 2  -  160M (increasing)

The Fate of the Furious  -  159M

Furious 7  -  157M

Journey to the West 2  -  147M

The Mermaid  -  126M

Lost in Hong Kong  -  94.8M

Warcraft  -  94.9M

Transformers: The Last Knight  -  94.2M

Detective Chinatown 2  -  93.2M (increasing)

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On 2/8/2018 at 2:36 PM, peludo said:

A local film. But I do not know which one (maybe someone here has any idea about which upcoming films have that potential).

 

The record of all time has increased in last 4 years in this way:

 

Transformers 4 (2014): 1.9b Yuan ($320m)

Monster Hunt (2015): 2.4b Yuan ($390m)

The Mermaid (2016): 3.3b Yuan ($525m)

Wolf Warrior 2 (2017): 5.6b Yuan ($870m, what means $900m with today ER)

 

With this trend, I find difficult that any local film can not reach 6.3b Yuan (1 billion dollars) during next 3 years.

Before then it was Avatar (2010) , so maybe WW2 did so well it holds the record for 3-4 years.

Edited by NCsoft
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