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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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On 2/11/2018 at 6:07 AM, Gavin Feng said:

Best OD pre-sale

Monster Hunt 2  -  160M (increasing)

The Fate of the Furious  -  159M

Furious 7  -  157M

Journey to the West 2  -  147M

The Mermaid  -  126M

Lost in Hong Kong  -  94.8M

Warcraft  -  94.9M

Transformers: The Last Knight  -  94.2M

Detective Chinatown 2  -  93.2M (increasing)

Are MONKEY KING 3 and OPERATION RED SEA being left in the dust? 

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5 minutes ago, Somoset said:

Are MONKEY KING 3 and OPERATION RED SEA being left in the dust? 

Nope, far from it. Presales as of now:

Monster Hunt 2 - 174M

Detective Chinatown 2 - 101M

Monkey King 3 - 49M

Operation Red Sea - 32M

 

The total presales for the day is a massive 381M, it only needs a presale multiplier of 2 at the minimum to be the biggest single day ever! (Currently 806M on 28th Jan last year)

 

EDIT: Also Monkey King 3 has 44M of presales for Wednesday as well, where it appears to be the only significant opener (45% showings and 85% of box office so far)

Edited by feasby007
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6 hours ago, Somoset said:

Are MONKEY KING 3 and OPERATION RED SEA being left in the dust? 

Operation Red Sea isn't a typical CNY release...Chinese audiences often opt for more family friendly fare over the holiday...that said, it'll probably catch on a little later in the week vs. Monster Hunt 2 which will probably be fairly front-loaded.  

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I heard Monkey King 3 is very awful. It may have bad legs like Buddies in India. Red Sea is good. But family audience especially kids and women want to see Monster Hunt and Detective Chinatown. I guess good WOM won’t help Red Sea to beat them unless Monster Hunt and Detective Chinatown are another Journey to the West 2

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21 hours ago, Somoset said:

Are MONKEY KING 3 and OPERATION RED SEA being left in the dust? 

Operation Red Sea may be a surprise in CNY.It won't be Huge as Wolf Warrior 2.It's possible to be a hit.The Monkey king3 is worse than The Monkey king2.It will fade away very soon

Edited by bangbingchan
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13 hours ago, bangbingchan said:

Operation Red Sea may be a surprise in CNY.It won't be Huge as Wolf Warrior 2.It's possible to be a hit.The Monkey king3 is worse than The Monkey king2.It will fade away very soon

TMK3 with a nice100m+ OD Wednesday but with a  7.6 rating. It will fade hard freeing screens quickly for whichever breaks out.  

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3 hours ago, POTUS said:

TMK3 with a nice100m+ OD Wednesday but with a  7.6 rating. It will fade hard freeing screens quickly for whichever breaks out.  

They knew they had a massive stinker on hand...tried to get it out early for Valentine’s Day with 100k+ preview screenings today and seems to have paid off.  

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With 495m total presales for CNY and counting, February 16th 2018 is already the 13th highest grossing single day at the Chinese box office. It currently needs an average presale multiplier of 1.63 to top the charts. So basically it's like 99.9% locked to happen, unless this CNY performs extraordinarily oddly

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Final presales:

 

Monster Hunt 2 - 294.1M

Detective Chinatown 2 - 174.2M

Monkey King 3 - 85.1M

Operation Red Sea - 56.7M

Boonie Bears 4 - 42.1M

 

Totals: 678.4M Presales and ~355,000 showings. This makes the day, in just presales remember the following:

  • 2nd best single day ever (behind 806m, in front 645m and 603m)
  • Most showing in a single day (needs checking fully, but has beaten every day I've checked by 30,000)
  • MH2 has the 4th best opening day for a single film, just in presales
  • MH2 has the 13th best single day for a single film, again just in presales

A presale multiplier of just 1.47x gets February 16th to 1B single day gross, first time ever!

 

EDIT: Also should note that Maoyan is forecasting the following totals:

Monster Hunt 2 - 4.297B ($677m)

Detective Chinatown 2 - 2.525B ($398m)

Monkey King 3 - 869m ($137m)

Operation Red Sea - 1.955B ($308m)

Boonie Bears 4 - 704m ($111m)

Edited by feasby007
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On 11/11/2017 at 12:22 PM, Proxima Olive said:

Thor (5 days+5.5 ours)
Midnight- 639k
OD - 2.49m
 
 
Justice League(5 days+5.5 ours)
Midnight- 1.01M
OD - 2.89m (33335 shows)
Sat - 1.95m
Sun - 1.3M

7 minutes ago, druv10 said:

BP presales have started. Look pretty strong this far out.

 

Thursday 570K

Friday  2.46M

Saturday 1.33M

Sunday 690K

Comparison with Thor and Justice League, similar OD but instead of being 5 days out, its 13 days out!

 

Presales have been open for over a week though, which I think is much earlier than Thor 3/JL, still though, this is looking decent!

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6 hours ago, druv10 said:

Yeah, likely as long as WOM is good. Marvel is a big brand in China plus CW appearance should help. Presales are top tier Marvel solo movies.

Do you know what kind of reception Black Panther currently has in Hong Kong and Taiwan? It could be a good predictor of the WOM in China.

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10 hours ago, KP1025 said:

Do you know what kind of reception Black Panther currently has in Hong Kong and Taiwan? It could be a good predictor of the WOM in China.

Depends on where you look.  I would say the WOM is mixed to decent in Hong Kong and Taiwan, as well as in South Korea.  The film is doing very well in East Asian regions because the Chinese New Year is the most important holiday over there. Usually the festivity goes on for a week or two. Schools are out mostly. It is the film preceding Infinity War and Marvel has become hugely popular everywhere. The film doesn't need great WOM to succeed. On China's movie review site Douban, it currently has a rating of 7.0 from users who have seen the movie outside China, which is average. But Marvel is also very popular in China and it should do well regardless of WOM. It will also benefit from lack of competitions. The current big movies will be at the end of their runs by then and there aren't other major openings for a while.

Edited by thiwa
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WoM is not that optimistic for Black Panther.it's 6.9 right now on douban.it's the most mixed WoM since Captain American(6.5)and Thor(6.7).It's even before wide release,even justice league is 7.4 before release on Douban(Now It's 6.7).But GA WoM is more depend on Maoyan score not Douban.BP won't got Maoyan score till March 9.Though Tomb Raider(March 16)won't be big,Lara will occupy IMAX Screens.So do Pacific rim 2(March 23)Competition is not that weak in March.BP won't have any CNY holiday as other Asian regions did.My target for Bp is still GotG number

Edited by bangbingchan
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1 hour ago, bangbingchan said:

WoM is not that optimistic for Black Panther.it's 7.0 right now on douban.it's the most mixed WoM since Captain American(6.5)and Thor(6.7).It's even before wide release,even justice league is 7.4 before release on Douban(Now It's 6.7).But GA WoM is more depend on Maoyan score not Douban.BP won't got Maoyan score till March 9.Though Tomb Raider(March 16)won't be big,Lara will occupy IMAX Screens.So do Pacific rim 2(March 23)Competition is not that weak in March.BP won't have any CNY holiday as other Asian regions did.My target for Bp is still GotG number

Black Panther has  the weakest rating out of all recent Marvel films in South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong.   Weaker WOM hasn't affected its boxoffice in any of those regions. Many people are excited about Infinity War in China and they will go see Black Panther to complete their Marvel collection. There is no need to worry about its boxoffice.

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4 hours ago, thiwa said:

Black Panther has  the weakest rating out of all recent Marvel films in South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong.   Weaker WOM hasn't affected its boxoffice in any of those regions. Many people are excited about Infinity War in China and they will go see Black Panther to complete their Marvel collection. There is no need to worry about its boxoffice.

February is CNY holiday.Weak competition in February.March is more crowded.March is not holiday at all.btw GotG number is not that bad.

Edited by bangbingchan
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