Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

[cax16]

Black Widow
Opening Weekend Range: $65 – 90 million
Domestic Total Range: $155 – 225 million

[RRA]

56 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

ITH was a critical hit though? Don't understand the comparison.

Calling a movie with 67% a "critical hit" is a stretch, no? 

 

 

[Legion Again]

So, I understand there is a lot going on that contributes to uncertainty for the OW, but these legs look pretty weird. 155/65 would be 2.4, 225/90 is just 2.5.   

 

Suppose that previews make up a massive 20% of OW (being more preview heavy is a drag on the legs of course). Then the 65->155 run can be broken down as 13M previews, 52 pure FSS, 2.73 legs from pure FSS. 90->225 would be 18 previews, 72 true FSS, 2.88 legs from true FSS. 

 

That doesn't line up at all with previous legs for summer MCU, or previous July blockbusters generally, thanks to the summer weekdays. 

 

E.g.

AM1 3.4x True FSS multi

SMH 3.1x

AM&tW 3.2x

FFH 3.2x (Tues open)

 

And some selected big July openings of roughly similar genre:

TDKR 3.2x

TDK 3.7x (zeitgeist reception)

Transformers:DotM 2.95x (Wed open)

Dawn of Apes 3x 

 

Ostensibly the leg pessimism is from PA, but based on our (admittedly quite small and not that comparable) sample size of Raya and Cruella it seems like PA doesn't really hurt legs because it impacts the OW at least as much as the postOW. 

 

Tl;dr From a 90M OW I'd expect something like 16M previews, 74 true FSS x3+ for 240+

 

@Shawn Curious for your thoughts on above -- if you can find the time

 

Edited June 19, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Gamora]

I've been wondering about what they'd do around a premiere for this film being that Cruella did have a lil something and so has Loki to a degree, so I found this interesting:

Quote

Do we know yet if there will be a traditional Black Widow premiere?

We are working on the event plan for Black Widow. Yes, we are able to safely have in-person events. We did our first event for Cruella. It was a little bit scaled back due to safety protocols and all of that, but we have had one. We certainly are looking at that for Black Widow and the rest of our films this summer.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-features/loki-marketing-disney-marvel-studios-1234970535/

 

Fingers crossed they can have something decent for BW, guess we'll have to wait and see.

[charlie Jatinder]

@Lokis Legion 

[RRA]

2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

ITH was a critical hit though? Don't understand the comparison.

67% on RT is a “critical hit”? 

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

1 hour ago, RRA said:

Calling a movie with 67% a "critical hit" is a stretch, no? 

 

 

 

Just now, RRA said:

67% on RT is a “critical hit”? 

 

 

Are you uh...you doing alright?

 

Also, this...this is not 67%

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/in_the_heights_2021

[Legion Again]

Also general reopening and Canada specifically could help legs a little bit compared to, say, Spider-man. It is pretty sui generis but I'd say that's more a reason to crank variance on the legs up than mean down.

[The GOAT]

Mild. Sounds like the movie's logic is as discombobulated as Wonder Woman 1984.  

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, The GOAT said:

Mild. Sounds like the movie's logic is as discombobulated as Wonder Woman 1984.  

Nevermind about WW84.

 

I kinda doubt this will be the case with BW, the reactions are good and i bet reviews will be at least decent too. What happened with WW84 seems way more like a outlier than a rule.

 

From the audience perspective i'm sure it will face some backlash online like every big movie with a female lead recently, but i also doubt it will be a generalized rejection like WW84 which get tepid reception from audiences in pretty much all metrics including Cinemascore.

Edited June 19, 2021 by ThomasNicole

[cax16]

12 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I love how she pretends WW84 get great reactions and great first reviews and then freefall because of nothing.

 

Warner choose selected people (her included) to watch the movie and talk about it before everyone else with gifts etc, and then when other people watch it the reception are very different.

 

I kinda doubt this will be the case with BW, the reactions are good and i bet reviews will be at least decent too. From the audience perspective i'm sure it will face some backlash online like every big movie with a female lead recently, but i also doubt it will be a generalized rejection like WW84 which get tepid reception from audiences in pretty much all metrics including Cinemascore.

Ww84 was certified fresh with like 90-100 reviews before it took that big dive that we’ve almost never seen, they did exactly what marvel just did with BW this week, literally almost all the same outlets. 

 

I’m not saying I expect BW to have the same reactions but it’s not like WB did anything different then any other studio does.  It’s just the last few movies they’ve allowed the blogger outlets to see first weren’t very good. These sites  usually go a bit easier on these movies cause they like having the perks of getting these early viewings and content (clicks) for their sites. 
 

For the record I didn’t watch the video so I’m not defending nor agreeing with her lol. 

Edited June 19, 2021 by cax16

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Ww84 was certified fresh with like 90-100 reviews before it took that big dive that we’ve almost never seen, they did exactly what marvel just did with BW this week, literally almost all the same outlets. 

 

I’m not saying I expect BW to have the same reactions but it’s not like WB did anything different then any other studio does.  It’s just the last few movies they’ve allowed the blogger outlets to see first weren’t very good. These sites  usually go a bit easier on these movies cause they like having the perks of getting these early viewings and content (clicks) for their sites. 
 

For the record I didn’t watch the video so I’m not defending nor agreeing with her lol. 

LOL my memory fail me, i remembered this getting +90% with the first 30 reviews or so and then already start to fall to the 70's. But you're right i search here and it really was certified in the 80's% with around 80 reviews when the freefal begins.

 

Despite that i still found the video very absurd when she said BW reactions are very good but she thinks reviews could follow WW84 pattern because people are more hard with movies with female leads (she also put BOP, CM and Mulan on the conversation to make her argument that the movies focused on female characters doesn't know exactly what to do to please people, that female directors want to put serious discussions on their movies to elevate them that are not good for audiences (lol) etc which i disagreed, especially since from the 4 movies she used as examples, only WW84 faced bad reviews).

 

Her personal thoughts aside, the whole video feels more like a conspiracy theory than anything.

 

[Madhuvan]

Grace Randolph tries too hard to pit DC vs MARVEL. Somebody tell her it ain't gonna work. 

[cax16]

20 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

LOL my memory fail me, i remembered this getting +90% with the first 30 reviews or so and then already start to fall to the 70's. But you're right i search here and it really was certified in the 80's% with around 80 reviews when the freefal begins.

 

Despite that i still found the video very absurd when she said BW reactions are very good but she thinks reviews could follow WW84 pattern because people are more hard with movies with female leads (she also put BOP, CM and Mulan on the conversation to make her argument that the movies focused on female characters doesn't know exactly what to do to please people, that female directors want to put serious discussions on their movies to elevate them that are not good for audiences (lol) etc which i disagreed, especially since from the 4 movies she used as examples, only WW84 faced bad reviews).

 

Her personal thoughts aside, the whole video feels more like a conspiracy theory than anything.

 

Ya ww84 reviews were really weird, it’s obvious they picked who would review the movie first but rarely does a movie fall that hard, but it was definitely a divisive movie.

 

With respects to Grace, She’s an idiot like always and I never take anything she says seriously.

 

Worst case I see for this movie is Captain Marvel reviews but we never know, anything can happen. I’m not betting against marvel and their consistency. 

[Legion Again]

I think the WW84 review trajectory was caused in part by the lack of physical screenings. It let them really target who to send the movie to initially. I doubt we see something like that now that things have largely returned to normal in terms of screenings.

[RRA]

9 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I think the WW84 review trajectory was caused in part by the lack of physical screenings. It let them really target who to send the movie to initially. I doubt we see something like that now that things have largely returned to normal in terms of screenings.

honestly as much as we fall into conspiracy theories, I think it’s much more simpler and basic: People really liked that first movie and the sequel (generally speaking) was considered a step down. You expect something as good or close to #1 and you find #2 isn’t. Emotionally, disappointment is a strong emotion. I’m reminded of how people felt after IM2 and AOU. So backlash makes sense.

 

(Now why WW84 did worse on RT than those two? Beats me, slight MCU bias? I don’t know.)
 

 

 

[RRA]

55 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Grace Randolph tries too hard to pit DC vs MARVEL. Somebody tell her it ain't gonna work. 

Somebody posted her video in this thread. As a carny, she knows how to get clicks from marks.

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, RRA said:

honestly as much as we fall into conspiracy theories, I think it’s much more simpler and basic: People really liked that first movie and the sequel (generally speaking) was considered a step down. You expect something as good or close to #1 and you find #2 isn’t. Emotionally, disappointment is a strong emotion. I’m reminded of how people felt after IM2 and AOU. So backlash makes sense.

 

(Now why WW84 did worse on RT than those two? Beats me, slight MCU bias? I don’t know.)
 

 

 

This doesn’t explain the temporal backloadedness of the negative reviews, which was far outside the norm. I don’t think there’s much conspiracy-ish to “digital pressers made it easier than usual for only friendly critics to see it first.”

[xiazhi]

4 hours ago, cax16 said:

Ww84 was certified fresh with like 90-100 reviews before it took that big dive that we’ve almost never seen

It is very obvious that WB sent the screener to DC-friendly reviewers to get a good early rating. It's a bad move IMO. The free fall is so embarrassing for them. 

[RRA]

2 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

This doesn’t explain the temporal backloadedness of the negative reviews, which was far outside the norm. I don’t think there’s much conspiracy-ish to “digital pressers made it easier than usual for only friendly critics to see it first.”

Or…hear me out…a lot of those critics just didn’t care for it?

 

I’m too lazy, but I would be curious to see what if all those critics behind those backloaded negative reviews be cross referenced with their ratings for other films of that ilk.