Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

[CloneWars]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

By November I could see this movie could have ok theatrical release world wide but still far from the absolute best potential. Question is would Disney be inclined to delay this further or release at all costs like Tenet is going with or go with Mulan route and release on Disney plus may be after 3 weeks of partial release in domestic markets. 

If Tenet does well, it will go theatrical. If Mulan does well as PVOD title that is the way Black Widow will go. If Tenet and Mulan both do poorly, Black Widow will be further delayed.

[SpiderByte]

25 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

why not postpone it to the Eternals' release date after the vaccine is out. I understand Disney has to put out something this year and there is Mulan.

Black Widow would likely be much bigger than Mulan regardless if it were in theaters or not. The claim of it being a "one off" is clearly to keep theaters happy, this is clearly a way to test the waters to see if they can avoid having to delay all their movies every few months till theaters reopen. If this works for Mulan, I guarantee Black Widow and Soul are next.

 

Also (mostly my opinion) I got a feeling even when the vaccine is released there's going to be a ton of dipshits who refuse to get it and the virus will stay around longer because of that.

Edited August 4, 2020 by SpiderByte

[Barnack]

52 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

True but also from a Disney+ worker: “we’ve put in enough work that it’s not a one-off” which is a great point why do all that work for one film. 

 

 

 

 

Except if I use Disney+ on my Amazon/Apple/Roku device to make the transaction I imagine, back in the days Roku was keeping 30% of the transaction made on is platform, it was down to around 20%:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/09/08/how-roku-makes-its-money.aspx

 

Apple famously was keeping 30% of the transaction on is stores, the giants like Netflix and Disney get much better deal obviously, but I am not sure it it is free, specially if the transaction can be made and is made in app and considering very few will buy movies from their computer web browser it will be about all of them.

 

Those deal are rarely public but those wars:

https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/01/in-a-significant-change-apple-customers-can-now-buy-or-rent-titles-directly-in-the-prime-video-app/

 

(or with HBO max right now) or the absence of those are probably not without reason, either letting the platform push ads on your streaming apps or money.

 

Has for implementing a system of VOD on your SVOD, that sound reasonable that once it is there why not use it and that it would be an hard push to create all that in place and confuse consumer about what Disney+ is for only a one time event.

 

Considering how low price Disney+ is and how big DIsney movie are I could see all the Marvel/Star Wars type having a first week or couple of weeks on Disney+ at a certain buy in price of say $4.99 before being included and watchable with you regular subscription fee.

 

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by Barnack

[Jamiem]

11 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Except if I use Disney+ on my Amazon/Apple/Roku device to make the transaction I imagine, back in the days Roku was keeping 30% of the transaction made on is platform, it was down to around 20%:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/09/08/how-roku-makes-its-money.aspx

 

Apple famously was keeping 30% of the transaction on is stores, the giants like Netflix and Disney get much better deal obviously, but I am not sure it it is free, specially if the transaction can be made and is made in app and considering very few will buy movies from their computer web browser it will be about all of them.

 

Those deal are rarely public but those wars:

https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/01/in-a-significant-change-apple-customers-can-now-buy-or-rent-titles-directly-in-the-prime-video-app/

 

(or with HBO max right now) or the absence of those are probably not without reason, either letting the platform push ads on your streaming apps or money.

 

Has for implementing a system of VOD on your SVOD, that sound reasonable that once it is there why not use it and that it would be an hard push to create all that in place and confuse consumer about what Disney+ is for only a one time event.

 

Considering how low price Disney+ is and how big DIsney movie are I could see all the Marvel/Star Wars type having a first week or couple of weeks on Disney+ at a certain buy in price of say $4.99 before being included and watchable with you regular subscription fee.

 

 

Only if you subscribe through those platforms I.e billed through iTunes. Also there will be payments to participants the same way they do with box office but still it’ll be better than the roughly 80% they would get from PVOD and 50% they would get from Box Office. If as many people watch Mulan as did Trolls World Tour (5m which seems low) that’s $150m, plus they will still have a box office in international markets most notably China. I don’t think Mulan is going to be the bomb people think it is going to be. 

[lorddemaxus]

5 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Only if you subscribe through those platforms I.e billed through iTunes. Also there will be payments to participants the same way they do with box office but still it’ll be better than the roughly 80% they would get from PVOD and 50% they would get from Box Office. If as many people watch Mulan as did Trolls World Tour (5m which seems low) that’s $150m, plus they will still have a box office in international markets most notably China. I don’t think Mulan is going to be the bomb people think it is going to be. 

Mulan also had a traditional marketing campaign. Should cost way more than Trolls World Tour did. Movie probably costs 350-400 mil including everything.

[Jamiem]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Mulan also had a traditional marketing campaign. Should cost way more than Trolls World Tour did. Movie probably costs 350-400 mil including everything.

Yeah I still think they can breakeven/make a profit. I could see something like $300m PVOD (10m people pay which is double TWT which was US only if I remember correctly) , $300-400m China and $100m rest of international for a breakeven/small profit.

[Lion Roar]

2 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Yeah I still think they can breakeven/make a profit. I could see something like $300m PVOD (10m people pay which is double TWT which was US only if I remember correctly) , $300-400m China and $100m rest of international for a breakeven/small profit.

They're not going to get close to that from China with the PVOD release. Most people there will end up watching a pirated copy. 

[lorddemaxus]

7 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Yeah I still think they can breakeven/make a profit. I could see something like $300m PVOD (10m people pay which is double TWT which was US only if I remember correctly) , $300-400m China and $100m rest of international for a breakeven/small profit.

Sub-100 mil from China. I see most people from there just pirating it at this point. And I don't see it doing double Trolls 2 with a higher price. 

[Gavin Feng]

Black Widow go D+

 

Feige feel sad & exit Marvel Studios for building SMCU in Sony

 

MCU dead

[Jamiem]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Sub-100 mil from China. I see most people from there just pirating it at this point. And I don't see it doing double Trolls 2 with a higher price. 

Yeah that’s possible, hopefully we get PVOD numbers at the very least so we know how much better/worse than Trolls it did. 

[SpiderByte]

3 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Black Widow go D+

 

Feige feel sad & exit Marvel Studios for building SMCU in Sony

 

MCU dead

Lol why? The studio heads were given huge ass incentives for making Disney+ shows, why do you think Marvel suddenly announced 8 shows?

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Lol why? The studio heads were given huge ass incentives for making Disney+ shows, why do you think Marvel suddenly announced 8 shows?

he is joking i think

[RealLyre]

31 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Mulan also had a traditional marketing campaign. Should cost way more than Trolls World Tour did. Movie probably costs 350-400 mil including everything.

 

 

not including users who will subscribe just to watch Mulan

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by RealLyre

[CloneWars]

Trolls was $20 to rent. Mulan is $30. So, I'm not sure how that affects things. Trolls did 5M or so rentals. I think Mulan pulls similar numbers, mainly because it's more expensive to rent, so that's $150M in profit, maybe it does 10M worldwide, so we are looking at $300M WW from PVOD, maybe $400M if it gets really lucky, nowhere near close to the $800-$1B+ itwould have made in theaters WW. Then, again Disney gets to keep all the profits or close to all the profits, so maybe if it can make $400M from PVOD for Disney then that would be more than good enough for Disney. 

[CloneWars]

3 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

 

 

not including users who will subscribe just to watch Mulan

 

The majority of the target audience is already subscribed.

[SpiderByte]

No movie is making anywhere close to a billion for at least a year.

[cax16]

49 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

 

 

not including users who will subscribe just to watch Mulan

 

If Mulan really makes 450m isn’t that basically like making a billion theatrically cause Disney would get all the money? Seems like if it did make that much i don’t see why Disney wouldn’t do the same thing with black widow? Not like I want to see that happen but money is money right.

 

Someone please correct me if my math isn’t right? 

[john2000]

11 minutes ago, cax16 said:

If Mulan really makes 450m isn’t that basically like making a billion theatrically cause Disney would get all the money? Seems like if it did make that much i don’t see why Disney wouldn’t do the same thing with black widow? Not like I want to see that happen but money is money right.

 

Someone please correct me if my math isn’t right? 

you forget though the budget and all the marketing cost that disney spent on mulan, dont forget disney spent all of their marketing budget on this one already, and its probably one of the reasons why the movies goes to d+ they dont want to invest more ( it doesnt mean that its the only reason though)

[Menor the Destroyer]

39 minutes ago, cax16 said:

If Mulan really makes 450m isn’t that basically like making a billion theatrically cause Disney would get all the money? Seems like if it did make that much i don’t see why Disney wouldn’t do the same thing with black widow? Not like I want to see that happen but money is money right.

 

Someone please correct me if my math isn’t right? 

Yeah but I think 450m is quite optimistic for this. I mean the heavy lockdowns in the USA surely contributed to the performance of Trolls 2. Now yes, Covid is out of control in the USA and many people are still at home, but compliance is not at the level it was in April and who knows what things will look like on September 4th. I think this one is gonna be very hard to predict. 

[cax16]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

Yeah but I think 450m is quite optimistic for this. I mean the heavy lockdowns in the USA surely contributed to the performance of Trolls 2. Now yes, Covid is out of control in the USA and many people are still at home, but compliance is not at the level it was in April and who knows what things will look like on September 4th. I think this one is gonna be very hard to predict. 

Ya that’s what I was thinking as well, but if it does do those numbers then who knows what happens next.