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Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

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3 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

The Mulan model is to earn money mostly from subscribed. 

 

New subscribers are good but they are not that important factor 

Agreed. The Mulan model works if it helps Disney bring in more revenue than it spent to make Mulan. 

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35 minutes ago, Macleod said:

As soon as it's directly apparent that it won't make the November date.  Which could be very soon...or it could be weeks away. 

 

I don't think Shang-Chi is making it's May 2021 date, anyway -- it's weeks behind in filming, and even though some production has resumed in Sydney, they don't even seem to fully scaled up, yet. 

 

And who knows what will happen to corporate theaters in the meantime?

 

I think Eternals (if it's finished) stays in February, Black Widow goes to May, Shang-Chi goes later 2021. I think everything MCU will be pushed back in the cart, obviously...just like everything else is. 

 

But I still also hold out the wild card that Black Widow could indeed go to Disney+

(Laugh all you want, but who saw 2020 coming?)


Do you believe theaters, writ large, will be at enough seating capacity by Feb 2021?

 

Somewhat related - if theaters are at say, 40% capacity due to seating restrictions I don’t know whether it makes more financial cents...I mean sense...to delay releases until a full return to normalcy or say “screw it, let’s see what we get from theaters and go PVOD.” 

 

 

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4 hours ago, lilmac said:

Do you believe theaters, writ large, will be at enough seating capacity by Feb 2021?

 

Somewhat related - if theaters are at say, 40% capacity due to seating restrictions I don’t know whether it makes more financial cents...I mean sense...to delay releases until a full return to normalcy or say “screw it, let’s see what we get from theaters and go PVOD.”

Exactly.  I think everything's up in the air right now.  It's an unprecedented moment in an industry that's already seen a lot of difficult hurdles.  I think it's very possible that the general public won't feel comfortable going back to theaters en masse (in America, at least) until well into 2021, even if they're open...and even if there's a vaccine (which in itself is far from a sure thing in the next 12 months, anyway). 

 

I think it's very possible that most major studios will be making some similar left-turns to streaming for certain major titles over the next year and half.  A good friend said to me something like: "Disney+ has 60+million subscribers - if even one fifth of them pay the fee for Mulan, that's already over $400 million (back) in their coffers/in the bank...without having to pay theaters a cent." 

 

That's a no-lose deal for Disney.  They made the safest, most selfish decision they could with Mulan, and at this point, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they shift at least one near-future Marvel feature over to Disney+ ...and that's mostly likely Black Widow or Eternals, to me.

Edited by Macleod
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Disney did do the SB spot this year. So there has been marketing spend on this unlike Eternals. So I believe they will release this before Eternals. Most probably this moves to May and Eternals to Summer and Shang Chi in winter and so on. I think only movie in 2022 which will get a hard slot should be Black Panther 2 as that is their biggest trilogy outside Avengers itself. So other movies can fit around Black Panther for May 2022. 

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On 8/6/2020 at 2:13 AM, Sean B said:

What do you think they will do with Black Widow then, if doesn’t go to streaming, Disney+, etc? A direct to Blu-ray release or delay into summer 2021?

Well, I thought we’d be back to normal by July, and movie theaters would be open, but that isn’t happening anytime soon. Our dumbass leadership bungled opening up the country too early, and now theaters probably won’t be open till November or December. I don’t see them black widow to Disney Plus. BW is billion dollar type of film, Disney isn’t that stupid. 

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2 hours ago, KJsooner said:

Well, I thought we’d be back to normal by July, and movie theaters would be open, but that isn’t happening anytime soon. Our dumbass leadership bungled opening up the country too early, and now theaters probably won’t be open till November or December. I don’t see them black widow to Disney Plus. BW is billion dollar type of film, Disney isn’t that stupid. 

Good point. I’m hoping that Black Widow still gets a theatrical release even if it ends up not being this year that it’s released to theaters. But other then that, I’d like to be able to buy it on Blu-ray, when the time comes for it be released on Blu-ray. 

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3 hours ago, KJsooner said:

Well, I thought we’d be back to normal by July, and movie theaters would be open, but that isn’t happening anytime soon. Our dumbass leadership bungled opening up the country too early, and now theaters probably won’t be open till November or December. I don’t see them black widow to Disney Plus. BW is billion dollar type of film, Disney isn’t that stupid. 

And by November the Cold Weather Virus Surge will ee underway.

I don't see thaters repoening until 2021 frankly.

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20 minutes ago, dudalb said:

And by November the Cold Weather Virus Surge will ee underway.

I don't see thaters repoening until 2021 frankly.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Black Widow’s theatrical release is delayed to 2021. That is unless Disney doesn’t think theaters will be open or around in 2021, and they decide to release it straight to streaming, DisneyPlus, Blu-ray, etc.

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On 8/8/2020 at 10:23 AM, KJsooner said:

Well, I thought we’d be back to normal by July, and movie theaters would be open, but that isn’t happening anytime soon. Our dumbass leadership bungled opening up the country too early, and now theaters probably won’t be open till November or December. I don’t see them black widow to Disney Plus. BW is billion dollar type of film, Disney isn’t that stupid. 

Well the near quarter billion they spent on it, Disney thought the same with Mulan. Guess how that's going.

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Yeah, and Black Widow cost a lot less than Mulan but is way more anticipated. So if they can break even on Mulan, you bet they'll take the gambit on Black Widow rather than delay it more or risk the inevitable underperformance of a domestic release in this environment.

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On 8/16/2020 at 11:12 PM, Darth Lehnsherr said:

They can only delay Black Widow for so long and after Mulan I don't consider any Disney movie 100% not going to Disney+. Still many more candidates before they even think about Black Widow though. 

The issue with Black Widow is it delays the rest of the MCU content. Now they might be scrambling, because production has been shut down for six months. So they might be willing to wait out Widow. But by delaying BW, they delay the important things like Eternals, and Eternals, in Eternals...

 

So I fully support them dumping it on Disney+ at this time the hype was never really there to begin with for the movie. 

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24 minutes ago, Cap said:

So I fully support them dumping it on Disney+ at this time the hype was never really there to begin with for the movie. 

Trailer view disagree. It's the highest among all the comicbook movies this year. Probably even all the movies.

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