Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

[Cap]

We obviously don’t have a crystal ball. We don’t know how the vaccine distribution will go, if people will take them, etc. And we all know that most of the theaters will not survive their current form without another six months of content. 
 

That all said, The Marvel Cinematic Universe is the Gold Star Standard when it comes to IP/Brands. It is. Full Stop. Haters to the left. Before the pandemic, they were one of the only large fandom properties that consistently got people in to the theaters, that consistently created positive buzz on social media, and that consistently turned a profit.  If there is anything that will get people back to a movie theater in May, it is the Marvel Cinematic Universe. 
 

They have WandaVision coming in January 15, 2021. No reason to drop Black Widow on Disney+ before May. They’re going to be able to keep the stans subbed up from Jan-March on that. The Falcon and Emo Boy are coming around June-July. That is a nice bit of content with no overlaps (which is how they normally do it).
 

I never expected Black Widow to make like 100+ on its opening weekend. I felt that between her arc already finishing in Endgame, the movie coming out probably like five years later than it should’ve, and ScarJo being ScarJo, we were going to see some cooling off before the A Team (Eternals, Strange, Thor, BP) showed up. That said, I still think it can open strong. Particularly if Marvel does Marvel and markets it as “We’re Back and So Are The Movies” Event of 2021.  
 

But it’s not going to Disney+. 

[cax16]

Only way it releases on Disney+ is if something strange happens with vaccine distribution and This movie connects to a show they need to get out on Disney+. That’s the only way I see it happening. 

[Legion Again]

Still think this can open over 100M on May 7 👀

[Maggie]

4 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Still think this can open over 100M on May 7 👀

No way. The vaccine will not be distributed by May. Many people will refuse to  take it. 100M total is my best case scenario prediction

[Legion Again]

56 minutes ago, Maggie said:

No way. The vaccine will not be distributed by May. Many people will refuse to  take it. 100M total is my best case scenario prediction

Yes way. We won’t have 100% vaccination of course, but partial vaccination plus (unfortunately) high levels of natural immunity from the brutal winter wave should get R well below 1 by then almost everywhere. I think this movie will be the first big beneficiary of people wanting to “go back to normal” and it being socially/medically acceptable.

Edited November 21, 2020 by WandaLegion

[Eric Atreides]

8 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Yes way. We won’t have 100% vaccination of course, but partial vaccination plus (unfortunately) high levels of natural immunity from the brutal winter wave should get R well below 1 by then almost everywhere. I think this movie will be the first big beneficiary of people wanting to “go back to normal” and it being socially/medically acceptable.

Papa Feige knew what was going on here. Truly he does not miss

[Maggie]

11 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Yes way. We won’t have 100% vaccination of course, but partial vaccination plus (unfortunately) high levels of natural immunity from the brutal winter wave should get R well below 1 by then almost everywhere. I think this movie will be the first big beneficiary of people wanting to “go back to normal” and it being socially/medically acceptable.

I wish nothing more than you to be right

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

I wish nothing more than you to be right

Haha, same. It’s not a lock of course, vaccines could have unexpected delays or issues, or people could be slower to recover normal activities I was suggesting above. Also possible that theaters can’t find any financing to get them through the dark next few months, and the turnaround time on new ownership being operational is slower than I think it would be.    
 

However, I think international markets offer some real data in the direction of box office optimism once a country feels like it’s safe again.    
 

It’s kind of funny actually — in Feb/early March I was part of the doom squad about how covid was gonna come wreck the whole world and completely destroy box office for the year. In June I was part of the doom squad about prospects for summer box office, and in Sep I was part of the doom squad about prospects for the holiday period. All of which turned out pretty much bang on. But for the prospects of May-Dec 21 movies, seems like things have reversed and I’m on the optimistic side for once.       
 

Maybe the trend that will hold up is “WandaLegion’s guess about the course of covid and effect on BO.” Maybe the trend that will hold up in the end is “gloom always wins.” So far there’s no data to distinguish the two, but fingers crossed 😆

Edited November 22, 2020 by WandaLegion

[lorddemaxus]

10 hours ago, Cap said:

Particularly if Marvel does Marvel and markets it as “We’re Back and So Are The Movies” Event of 2021.  

Is this Venom 2 you're talking about here? Because, yeah I agree.

Edited November 22, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[Eric Atreides]

21 hours ago, Cap said:

But it’s not going to Disney+. 

Oh...really now? 

 

 

 

For the record, this is fake as hell...but I love to watch the world burn.

[Maggie]

It looks fake, but you never know. If they intend to send it to streaming, they should announce a few months before so No Time to Die can move

[Maggie]

.

Edited November 22, 2020 by Maggie

[CloneWars]

3 hours ago, Eric Karga said:

Oh...really now? 

 

 

 

For the record, this is fake as hell...but I love to watch the world burn.

I think anything is possible at this point. Also, Disney 18+ sounds more realistic than Disney Star for an American market. I also think there would be less controversy adding an R-rated selection if they clearly label it 18+. I still think there will be controversy though even if it requires a special password to access so kids can't watch it. Traditionally, Disney has been known for being family friendly so 18+ is a huge shift for them, but I guess it would make them even more competitive against Netflix.

[Macleod]

Intriguing, but how convenient that the "WandaVision" dates aren't seeable...  Hmm...  

 

Either way, "Black Widow" will surely be on Disney+ before the end of 2021...whether it premieres there, or not!  

Edited November 22, 2020 by Macleod

[lorddemaxus]

4 hours ago, CloneWars said:

I think anything is possible at this point. Also, Disney 18+ sounds more realistic than Disney Star for an American market. I also think there would be less controversy adding an R-rated selection if they clearly label it 18+. I still think there will be controversy though even if it requires a special password to access so kids can't watch it. Traditionally, Disney has been known for being family friendly so 18+ is a huge shift for them, but I guess it would make them even more competitive against Netflix.

I can't believe people are falling for this. Disney isn't going to cause brand confusion by having 3 different Netflix-type services. They aren't going to introduce a service that eats into their pretty large Hulu market either. 

 

And Star is not meant to have exclusively adult content and neither does Hulu. There's a ton of non-R rated content that doesn't fit Disney's brand. They aren't gonna include all this in something called "Disney 18+".

Edited November 23, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[Macleod]

3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

And Star is not meant to have exclusively adult content and neither does Hulu. There's a ton of non-R rated content that doesn't fit Disney's brand. They aren't gonna include all this in something called "Disney 18+".

Admit it -- if Disney hired Adam Driver to do promos for "Disney 18+" and had him say:

"Join me on the dark side..."  You know millions of fangirls would instantly sign up and crash the server!  😂

 

Thank me later, Disney. 

 

Edited November 23, 2020 by Macleod

[Eric Atreides]

 

[Eric Atreides]

On 11/21/2020 at 4:28 PM, cax16 said:

Only way it releases on Disney+ is if something strange happens with vaccine distribution and This movie connects to a show they need to get out on Disney+. That’s the only way I see it happening. 

Could it be some other third thing? 👀 

[Legion Again]

Feige isn’t going to follow WB like a lemming, this is as unlikely to go D+ as it was yesterday.     
 

The only option I might entertain is some kind of mixed theatrical+premiere access model.

[Eric Atreides]

12 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Feige isn’t going to follow WB like a lemming, this is as unlikely to go D+ as it was yesterday.     
 

The only option I might entertain is some kind of mixed theatrical+premiere access model.

Who says Papa Feige is the one in charge of all this?