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Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

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Had a feeling this would happen. The UK's actually been doing really well at vaccines but even so I never hear about people desperate to get back to the cinema this summer. They want to be outside in beer gardens, talking to friends they haven't seen in a year. Disney isn't stupid.

 

It's not like I was going to watch this film but I can still appreciate it's all a bit sad - cinemas are fucked and VOD has so little sense of occasion. Once a type of convenience becomes the new normal it's hard to go back.

 

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14 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Wrong, bad now but with the acceleration of vaccination theaters will reopen by late May / early June. Here in France it's expected half of the population will be vaccinated by late May, which means all fragile categories will be protected, hospitals will be in a far better situation. Summer will be great in Europe!

is not near of what is needed to get cautious people back to the cinemas

 

14 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

More theaters will be open in July than in May, much more...and in some places where they're open they'll go from 25% capacity to 100%.

It's worth the wait, theaters are mostly closed in Europe or severaly limited right now and it won't change by May 7, it won't be the case in July.

agree, only not sure inhowfar for complete Europe the situation will be back to 100% capacity in July as no one knows about maybe needed additional shots for variants... for now

 

14 hours ago, Menor said:

Then why not do theatrical exclusive?

And if the argument is that hybrid is going to be the long term strategy for Disney, then one would expect them to go a bit further than this. My only guess is basically what @WandaLegion said, their PA results have been inconclusive enough to test it for a big blockbuster but not quite good enough to commit long term.

 

I think they are considering the worldwide situation and possible developments more than even some of us do

Not only for the virus, lockdowns, not being allowed to open for more like eg 25% capacity,... but also for the refusal to screen it by some chains based on / for the double approach of the studios, like a bit of a muscle play, and for the again boycott vs muscle play for the chains boycotting Disney since before the Pandemie hit, for the shares Disney want in certain regions.

It might be a mix of all 

 

For myself I can only say I wont pay $30 for PA, as here only 1-2 people of my household will even watch it, the 3rd person not having any interest into SH, Sci-Fi, horror nor Fantasy based movies. I see cinema still as an superior experience, that too is a reason I think $30 is whacko at best.

 

But I also wont watch it in a cinema as long as not at least all members of my household are fully vaccinated AND ~ 80% of our population is vaccinated too. Also no massive hotspots active in neighboring countries, see ~ high traffic based on working here, no active hotspots in the typical for us vacation regions. And no strain not included into the given vaccines is trying to ‚visit‘ us.

And that is pretty much how all of my friends are planning to handle it, but I am aware about some people will handle it in another way.

 

Means in case of BW I will probably wait till its either free at Disney+ I’ll or buy it as disc, or digitally eg at itunes after a while

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6 hours ago, imbruglia said:

some of y'all sound very naive and personal.

we're in 2021. releases on streaming can be huge event, even more than theater releases. lol

 

Also Raya doesn't need massive PA numbers, they only need to do better than what it would get with theater release.

and the bar is extremely low. films won't do huge boxoffice number miracly in July. y'all gotta accept this.

all of big films still will struggle to get Tenet's number. this is new reality.

 

 

 

 

 

GvK itself is gonna blow past Tenet, you think the situation won't be better by July? 

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5 hours ago, Gamora said:

I thought there'd be a chance this would move with them still not having released anything for Shang-Chi yet, it seemed like an indicator even if things are messy now and they're not necessarily following the usual release pattern for trailers.

 

This is now updated at Hoyts as expected:

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It makes sense they wouldn't do the week early release when PA is involved, although who knows if they'll do an early theatrical release in countries that don't have Disney+ yet. They haven't so far but I guess it's possible. At least we now have a set release date, since I was still iffy about May when they first moved it there tbh. I don't mind waiting until July to try to get more theaters open to give it more of a chance, I thought that was the best thing to do because why not give it a couple more months when vaccinations are ramping up.

 

Although, if Top Gun sticks around for 2nd July does that still get the IMAX exclusivity or whatever it is? It's been a long-ass time since I remember reading about it last year with this and WW84, and I'm coming up blank in searches so I can't remember what that is exactly.

Top Gun will probably end up moving to June 18 now that Luca has vacated that spot (and theaters altogether) to take advantage of Father's Day Sunday and to avoid getting sandwiched between Fast 9 and this.

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4 hours ago, Hatebox said:

Had a feeling this would happen. The UK's actually been doing really well at vaccines but even so I never hear about people desperate to get back to the cinema this summer. They want to be outside in beer gardens, talking to friends they haven't seen in a year. Disney isn't stupid.

 

It's not like I was going to watch this film but I can still appreciate it's all a bit sad - cinemas are fucked and VOD has so little sense of occasion. Once a type of convenience becomes the new normal it's hard to go back.

 

PVOD model has repeatedly failed over and over. 

 

For small films sure I guess but it's basically like locking in a loss.

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7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If all goes well, GvK will cross TENET in first week. If not 2nd weekend surely.

Worldwide? I am rooting for it. Haha

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I mean this is literally the same thing as people saying Airbnb is going to eliminate hotels. That's just not going to happen and unlike this situation Airbnb is actually successful versus PVOD is a massive failure.

 

Massive airbnb user here btw (65+ stays so far)

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19 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

if BW get 9.0/10 on film site?

None of us expect BW to have the exact same legs. My point is piracy is not necessarily deadly.

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19 hours ago, juni78ukr said:

Piracy didnt kill Soul in Russia either, But Wonder Woman 1984 was dead on arrival. 

Well Wonder Woman 1984 would be dead on arrival under any circumstances.

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6 hours ago, filmlover said:

Top Gun will probably end up moving to June 18 now that Luca has vacated that spot (and theaters altogether) to take advantage of Father's Day Sunday and to avoid getting sandwiched between Fast 9 and this.

June is suicide. I imagine Par wants to make some money, so they’ll delay it further. Europe is in bad shape, Us is pretty good with the vaccine, but the box office still low. 

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The domestic box office will be booming by June if there’s product as people celebrate the pandemic being over. Perhaps stronger than (adjusted for product) than in 2019.   
 

It is conceivable however that studios will continue to delay product because of Europe and LATAM. We’ll have  huge logjam in Q3&4 if nobody wants to release anything before July, but I can see how studios might individually prefer a huge logjam and global openess over less competition and some markets closed. Bit of a collective action problem.

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On 3/24/2021 at 1:26 PM, cdsacken said:

PVOD model has repeatedly failed over and over. 

 

For small films sure I guess but it's basically like locking in a loss.

VOD is the wrong term really - it's content on vertically integrated platforms that's the game-changer. Disney blockbusters have basically defined the last decade and it's all but confirmed its release strategy won't be the same going forward, even with the end of the pandemic. That can't be ignored.

 

Seismic shifts always seem inconceivable until they aren't, as any music exec riding high in the 90s would probably agree. No, I don't think cinema will die tomorrow but I sure as hell wouldn't invest in any theater operating companies anytime soon. Maybe somewhere down the line when cinemas finally settle into their vinyl phase. 😉

 

 

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1 hour ago, Hatebox said:

VOD is wrong term really - it's content on vertically integrated platforms that's the game-changer. Disney blockbusters have basically defined the last decade and it's all but confirmed its release strategy won't be the same going forward, even with the end of the pandemic. That can't be ignored.

 

Seismic shifts always seem inconceivable until they aren't, as any music exec riding high in the 90s would probably agree. No, I don't think cinema will die tomorrow but I sure as hell wouldn't invest in any theater operating companies anytime soon. Maybe somewhere down the line when cinemas finally settle into their vinyl phase.

 

Agree mostly but think at first there might be a surge for especially a few probable blockbusters, for the hunger and more to be able to enjoy again and so on.

Then it can go different ways:

eg if the probable blockbusters are really enjoyable, hit the right Zeitgeist too,... it might hold longer or even recover far more than I am afraid can happen also, especially if said probable blockbusters are not that great, not hitting the Zeitgeist, are eg depressing, too near to the reality people want to escape from, or eg based on a not happy ending less ~ rewatch-friendly for at least a part of the audience.

If that happens early on into the recovery phase repeatedly, then I think cinema numbers in general might get down more fast than some seem to think its possible.

 

The virus created in my POV a situation where a small additional drop can have an impact during the reopening/business recovery phase, but depending on see eg happy end or... it is not a given to have an big impact.

 

Also the reactions might differ a lot depending on how long and/or how often a country was eg in lockdown, or if eg exemptions for eg family watch ‘parties’ in a cinema were allowed or not, eg China had only one wave, as such a far shorter total restriction of cinemas, the alternative entertainment might have had less of an impact to eg a country with months over months of lockdowns and no real social live during big parts of the last year.

And tons of variants in between.

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Publicly, there was no uproar among theater owners, or a dour reaction from Wall Street. All sides are resigned to the fact that every Hollywood studio is going to experiment with different release models as long as the pandemic continues. And although the landscape may be improving in the U.S., where movie theaters have at last reopened in Los Angeles and New York City, Europe remains in a crisis. It's also possible that major entertainment conglomerates are being advised on the long-range implications of the pandemic, and need to "hedge their bets," as one film financier tells The Hollywood Reporter.

 

"Black Widow is an expensive movie. It's not surprising they are pushing back the date," says Wall Street analyst Eric Handler of MKM Partners. "Disney isn't comfortable releasing a $200 million-plus movie when there is so much uncertainty."

 

Handler and others believe foremost that Disney is using the pandemic era to test the appetite for premium video on-demand. Black Widow and Cruella provide unique opportunities. "This year is all about experimentation," he says. "Disney isn't abandoning exhibitors."

 

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6 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

Black Widow cost $200M?

Exactly? Unknown. But yea that's the basic rate of a major blockbuster these days ($175-225m).

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