Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

[Valonqar]

9 hours ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Heh. FATWS is my favorite of the three so far. Unless you mean it was less popular than the other two. 

 

It is less popular in Audience scores on RT, IMDB and Meta by a margin, and in general if you compare comments on various sites, it's considered rather meh and the weakest of the 3. Viewership for all 3 is likely even. 

 

But anyway, back to BW, over 100M is very doable IMO. Where there's 90M tracking there's 100M OW. 

Edited July 2, 2021 by Valonqar

[SpiderByte]

 

[WittyUsername]

3 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

 

Getting a little ahead of ourselves, aren’t we?

[Gavin Feng]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

 

 

 

not the craziest thing we've ever seen

Quote

Vin Diesel claims Fast and Furious 7 will win an Oscar

 

[Valonqar]

That's Clayton Davis. His predictions are about as serious as mine. 

[grey ghost]

3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

They all look the same, have the same kind of quippy humor, and 2nd unit directed, completely pre-vized action. I'm not sure what different experience each offer. These movies don't have a radical difference in the kind of audiences they attract or the kind of comments people make about each of them. I think people are interested because it's the same as what worked before for this franchise. Very few people are actually going into something like the Eternals expecting it to be a different type of movie from Shang Chi.

 

Again you're only associating Eternals with Shang Chi because you know they're both MCU films.

 

If they weren't you'd have zero reason to associate them. Let's be honest.

 

Yes they have action movie tropes. So what? Expecting a successful franchise to reinvent itself for the sake of of people who don't like the movies doesn't make much sense, does it?

 

Based on your broad and patronizing description Hobbs and Shaw, Shazam, Aquaman, Hitman's Bodyguard, and Jumanji are all MCU films.

 

 

[Eric Atreides]

Moderation

 

Guys, nobody cares about this anymore. If you want to fight over the MCU and style and whatever it is you're complaining about, do it through PMs

[grey ghost]

7 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Im not impressed if it opens at 90M.

 

 

Why not?

 

We're not in the pre-pandemic days.

[fabiopazzo2]

4 hours ago, grey ghost said:

 

Why not?

 

We're not in the pre-pandemic days.

FF9 OW? 70M

 

BW is part of a much more popular franchise so I would be very happy but not impressed

 

 

 

Edited July 2, 2021 by fabiopazzo2

[lorddemaxus]

8 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Moderation

 

Guys, nobody cares about this anymore. If you want to fight over the MCU and style and whatever it is you're complaining about, do it through PMs

Wouldn't say that. A lot of people seemed to care a lot.

Edited July 2, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Legion Again]

Spoiler

 

On 6/18/2021 at 6:21 PM, Lokis Legion said:

So, I understand there is a lot going on that contributes to uncertainty for the OW, but these legs look pretty weird. 155/65 would be 2.4, 225/90 is just 2.5.   

 

Suppose that previews make up a massive 20% of OW (being more preview heavy is a drag on the legs of course). Then the 65->155 run can be broken down as 13M previews, 52 pure FSS, 2.73 legs from pure FSS. 90->225 would be 18 previews, 72 true FSS, 2.88 legs from true FSS. 

 

That doesn't line up at all with previous legs for summer MCU, or previous July blockbusters generally, thanks to the summer weekdays. 

 

E.g.

AM1 3.4x True FSS multi

SMH 3.1x

AM&tW 3.2x

FFH 3.2x (Tues open)

 

And some selected big July openings of roughly similar genre:

TDKR 3.2x

TDK 3.7x (zeitgeist reception)

Transformers:DotM 2.95x (Wed open)

Dawn of Apes 3x 

 

Ostensibly the leg pessimism is from PA, but based on our (admittedly quite small and not that comparable) sample size of Raya and Cruella it seems like PA doesn't really hurt legs because it impacts the OW at least as much as the postOW. 

 

Tl;dr From a 90M OW I'd expect something like 16M previews, 74 true FSS x3+ for 240+

 

@Shawn Curious for your thoughts on above -- if you can find the time

 

 

 

New forecast: 80-110 OW, 205-310 final.   
 

Low end: 205/80 is 2.56, 310/110 is 2.82. 
 

My personal would be 80M OW probably 14ish previews, maybe 210.  
110 probably 19ish previews, maybe 300.  
 

Basically, I now completely agree with legs.

[Eric Atreides]

14 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Wouldn't say that. A lot of people seemed to care a lot.

Okay. Let me rephrase it then.

 

Nobody who matters (like me) cares about this anymore. You've already talked about this for well over a day, and it's very clear you will not change each other's minds, making such argument completely pointless and frustrating to read. People who want to go into the thread that either see little point in discussing whether or not MCU movies are the same or not or have moved on from the convo will be frustrated and annoyed. Not helped also by some posters purporting a "holier than thou" attitude over these dumb children's movies, and are instigating these issues, therefore making the flames fan worse than they already were (cough cough). If you still want to maintain the conversation, PMs are fine, though I see little reason to continue a fight that will see no victor.

 

This is all I will say on the matter.

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Nobody who matters (like me) cares about this anymore.

Um.   
 

I don’t really want any more posts on the topic myself at this point, but is this really a valid way to justify mod decisions? 
 

It’s not like that discussion, fruitless as it may have been, was crowding out more productive discussion. Once it ended it’s not like the conversation pivoted, it pretty much just dried up.

Edited July 3, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Eric Atreides]

6 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Um.   
 

I don’t really want any more posts on the topic myself at this point, but is this really a valid way to justify mod decisions? 
 

It’s not like that discussion, fruitless as it may have been, was crowding out more productive discussion. Once it ended it’s not like the conversation pivoted, it pretty much just dried up.

I'm aware that was harsh to say, but I felt I had to do this, because that's the only way people will listen sometimes. People here have mentioned their frustrations with a lot of the arguments and fanboy discussion in the past. That it can be annoying to read, can get pretty hostile, and that it often leads to nowhere, making things exhausting as a result. And while this is far from the worst we've experienced, it could have easily gone south fast and I feel confident in saying a good chunk of BOT is tired of this kind of stuff, at least a little bit.

 

As for that last point, I don't think this is a bad thing. I'd much prefer a quieter, smaller community with fewer posts, full of people who just like talking about box office and movies in a respectful manner rather than a big community with more posts, but has more fanboy infighting.

[filmlover]

Everyone is allowed to feel however they want about the MCU (or any movie/franchise lol). However, trying to shove condescending, "I'm better than you" attitudes down other's throats never accomplishes anything unless it is a fight you're seeking (good day sir in that case). And that's my two cents on the topic.

 

Meanwhile:

 

 

Can Florence Pugh’s ‘Black Widow’ Performance Earn an Oscar Nod? https://t.co/fJUqDqy1Ts via @variety

— Clayton Davis (@AwardsCircuit) July 2, 2021

[grey ghost]

The thread is dead.

 

Mod shuts down discussion of the merits of MCU movies while calling them dumb children's movies.

 

Seems legit.

[Legion Again]

Lol, I skimmed over the “dumb children’s movies” part. Does seem like an unnecessary condescending way to halt that line of conversation. 

[Eric Atreides]

I will say this: I've called just about every franchise here "dumb children's movies" in the past, mainly as a way to show how ridiculous people get when it comes to these movies. I've never seen anybody get mad at me about me calling them that until now.

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Everyone is allowed to feel however they want about the MCU (or any movie/franchise lol). However, trying to shove condescending, "I'm better than you" attitudes down other's throats never accomplishes anything unless it is a fight you're seeking (good day sir in that case). And that's my two cents on the topic.

 

Meanwhile:

 

 

 

Back on point - can she earn as Oscar nod?  I'm gonna say no.  I think there will be 5 better performances this year in movies not yet out.

 

That said, it doesn't mean she didn't give a great one (we won't know til we see it) - it just means she's stuck in the "these types of roles don't tend to be as respected as biographical and dramatic ones"...supers has the Oscars problem that horror (and animated) have in triplicate:)...

[filmlover]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

Back on point - can she earn as Oscar nod?  I'm gonna say no.  I think there will be 5 better performances this year in movies not yet out.

 

That said, it doesn't mean she didn't give a great one (we won't know til we see it) - it just means she's stuck in the "these types of roles don't tend to be as respected as biographical and dramatic ones"...supers has the Oscars problem that horror (and animated) have in triplicate:)...

Florence Pugh is great (and already an Oscar nominee) but this article is pure Clayton Davis clickbait. Black Panther was a Best Picture nominee (and the SAG Ensemble winner that year) and even that couldn't get any of its actors Oscar nominations.