Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

[Legion Again]

It’s happening well before May 1. This has been quite evident for weeks, this is just more of the classic Biden lowball (which is a rhetorical tactic I’m totally fine with to be clear — but best to keep it in mind when predicting how things actually go).

[eddyxx]

On 3/10/2021 at 1:34 PM, SpiderByte said:

I mean people said the same about Mulan when Soul went on there without Premiere Access.

 

 

Feige on theatrical distribution:

It’s widely said you are among the most vigilant in Hollywood about preserving theatrical releases, as opposed to letting Marvel films go to Disney Plus.

It’s impossible [not to be, when you] go to opening night to 23 movies, in packed movie houses, and seeing the moviegoers’ reaction. That’s what drives us creatively as we make all of these, certainly culminating in “Avengers: Endgame” and “Far From Home.” There’s nothing better than that, and we don’t want to lose it. I’m hoping we don’t have to. If there is nowhere else to put those movies, that’s another conversation, but I’m encouraged by the theaters holding on. Also, what’s happening overseas in countries where [the pandemic] is more under control. Guess what? It’s human nature to want to get together an have an experience. That’s continuing in very big ways in countries where they are able.

 

 

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/kevin-feige-anthony-mackie-faclon-winter-solider-cap-shield-1234924410/

 

 

Kevin Feige is probably like “you’ll pull Black Widow from theatrical when you pry it from my cold dead hands”.

[AndyK]

They should push this back 2 months, most of Europe will be open for business.

[SpiderByte]

So in Covid what OW would constitute a big hit?

[Legion Again]

59 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

So in Covid what OW would constitute a big hit?

100M 
 

Anything above Hulk’s OW would be pretty respectable though, if you want to be more conservative about it.

[Macleod]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

So in Covid what OW would constitute a big hit?

I bet Marvel/Disney would be very happy with anything above $40-50 mil. at this point.  

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

So in Covid what OW would constitute a big hit?

 

56 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

100M 
 

Anything above Hulk’s OW would be pretty respectable though, if you want to be more conservative about it.

 

50 minutes ago, Macleod said:

I bet Marvel/Disney would be very happy with anything above $40-50 mil. at this point.  

 

Considering Tom & Jerry did $14 million at the end of February, if this can't do at least 5x that amount with it's current release date (assuming no hybrid release), then it's a bit of a miss for me. 

[SpiderByte]

Harbour saying it's May 7th on insta. Sounds like we just got to wait for promo to restart

 

 

 

 

 

 

View this post on Instagram

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A post shared by David Harbour (@dkharbour)

 

 

[SpiderByte]

New promo images. It's gearing back up.

 

May 7th is happening.

[Legion Again]

Disney marvel really put here saying “LATAM and EMEA who?”

 

Spoiler

It’ll probably be fine in Middle East and UK actually, just not LATAM or mainland Eur. Expecting staggered releases, but won’t be surprised if some harder hit regions get their theatrical later than PA.

 

Edited March 15, 2021 by WandaLegion

[Krissykins]

Will be interesting to see if Disney still put this on Disney+ here in the UK when cinemas reopen just 10 days later. 
 

Wonder if they’ll push this back a month or so worldwide. 

[SnokesLegs]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Will be interesting to see if Disney still put this on Disney+ here in the UK when cinemas reopen just 10 days later. 
 

Wonder if they’ll push this back a month or so worldwide. 

They’ll probably just delay the UK release date to May 17th (or later if they want to wait for customer confidence to return). They delayed Ant Man 2 by over a month to avoid the football back in 2018, so I doubt they’d think twice about delaying it in the UK.

[charlie Jatinder]

India will release by May 28th may be. May 7th and May 21st is possible but I think they may go for 28th.

[Jamiem]

 

6:12 minute mark: "Situation change, just a few weeks ago there's in New York and Los Angeles were closed and now all of a sudden they're open. so we are waiting to see exactly how guests respond, perspective theatregoers respond to these reopenings and we are going to remain flexible, we'll make the call essentially at the last minute in terms of how these films come to market whether its Black Widow or any other title but we are watching against consumer behaviour and if consumers are happy we love the theatrical window and you know we've had unbelievable success in theatres and we think its important to build our franchises but at the same time we don't think its the only way to do it, so we are going to remain flexible and we will see what happens over the next couple of months because so much is changing, its such a dynamic environment that its really hard to assume what's going to happen with consumer behaviour in the next month and it comes to remembrance back to into the world of normal. so we will be watching carefully and make the call when we have to"

[Legion Again]

27 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

we'll make the call essentially at the last minute in terms of how these films come to market

Disney doing exactly what I’ve been saying for months  

 

Spoiler

Of course, I have also been making specific predictions about what that last minute call is likely to be, still to be seen how those pan out 😛 

 

[Jamiem]

3 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Disney doing exactly what I’ve been saying for months  

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Of course, I have also been making specific predictions about what that last minute call is likely to be, still to be seen how those pan out 😛 

 

They're doing the most logical thing with the wait and see approach.  

 

It does seem like the date is pretty set though just waiting to see if there is enough demand to do a theatrical only. 

[Ms Lady Hawk]

GvK’s performance is going to be huge for theatrical considerations for this movie. 
 

D+ is worldwide, so this will be a boon for Disney either way. Will drive up subs like nothing on that platform before it. 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Jamiem said:

They're doing the most logical thing with the wait and see approach.  

 

It does seem like the date is pretty set though just waiting to see if there is enough demand to do a theatrical only. 

Yeah, especially since they’ll probably want to begin a marketing restart before final release plans. Atm I could see:

A)May 7 pure theatrical with normalish windows

B)May 7 pure theatrical with a 21-60 day window to PA, then 90 to free D+

C)May 7 0-day PA 90 day free

D) May 14/21 pure theatrical with normal windows

E) May 14/21 pure theatrical with truncated window to PA   
 

and I don’t expect we’ll know until April. My money is on B though.

[SpiderByte]

If they're looking at China dates, for April, then the question isn't whether its coming May 7th, its how.

[Fullbuster]

1 hour ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

GvK’s performance is going to be huge for theatrical considerations for this movie. 
 

D+ is worldwide, so this will be a boon for Disney either way. Will drive up subs like nothing on that platform before it. 

 

That's something I'm a bit skeptical about: if you care about Marvel movies, TV shows and characters, won't you have Disney+ in the first place?

I'm not predicting anything here, just trying to make sense of it, I hope you're right about that but I fear people might expect too much from BW in terms of subs for D+. An effect, yes probably but...how big? WandaVision has been the world's most popular show for weeks and Falcon and the Winter Soldier has the signs of a very successful show to come so if fans don't sub now, then why and when?