Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

[Gavin Feng]

When will they announce Loki series go theaters exclusively?

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, xiazhi said:

Does Soul prove piracy doesn't kill a movie in China given how great its legs were?

Actually Soul could have perhaps done more. May be $100M. Can't really pin on it.

 

Piracy surely affect but then China is only market in world where re-releases still do tens of millions 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, jimisawesome said:

Just have to say the last few pages have been awesome when you compare them to WB thread after the announcement.  WB was killing theaters at a time when everything looked bleak with COVID numbers.  Yet when things look great with COVID numbers Disney is just giving people options.  

Well that's what you get when you try to steal Disney's limelight by jumping rhe gun. 

 

For context refering to how Disney was suppose to make their all next year films available on Disney+ in December last year but didn't after reaction to HBO Max.

Edited March 24, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Well that's what you get when you try to steal Disney's limelight by jumping rhe gun. 

 

For context refering to how Disney was suppose to make their all next year films available on Disney+ in December last year but didn't after reaction to HBO Max.

To be fair, the main issue everyone had with the WB/HBO Max thing is that they didn't tell any of their talent beforehand. These announcements seem a lot more prepared (and one assumes the people involved in the movies were really well compensated).

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

(and one assumes the people involved in the movies were really well compensated).

The main issue with that was Legendary IIRC. Here Disney produce all their films.

 

Unless people involve have some remuneration deal linked to box office, none of them have any right or morality to have any problem with where the distributor release their film.

[Legion Again]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I meant

Spider-Man: Far from Home - theaters

Widow, Shang & Eternals - D+

Spider-Man: No Way Home - theaters

Ah, most recent two theatrical exclusives will be Spider-man.    
 

Yeah, possible. I’m quite skeptical as you already know.   
 

I will say, if PA is doing decent for them, the lack of experimentation with different windows will eventually be a little strange. Shang-Chi could be a good place to experiment with some kind of “PA on 3rd/4th/5th weekend” kind of deal.

Edited March 24, 2021 by WandaLegion

[keysersoze123]

This news is not a surprise considering it has been rumored for months. Disney have been saying they wanted to go theatrical for a big movie like Black Widow but internally they might have done a survey that would gauge interest in going back to theaters. Plus movie theaters wont give big % of money back to studio like what Disney were able to do for Endgame or Star Wars. After all they are highly debt ridden with negligible revenue. Plus they cannot even sell overpriced junk food and sugary drinks to make money. I just cant foresee us being packed in theaters munching popcorn in 2021.  So Disney thinks this would be the best of what they can do. 

 

Big question is would all the chains release BW and at what terms. I know cinemark skipped Raya because they were not ok with Disney's terms. Also I hope Disney would release some kind of data on how much money they are making with PA. 

 

Big question is what would Universal do with Fast 9. Would they follow Disney and release it on Peacock or sell the movie to highest bidder(Netflix or Amazon would pay big money). MGM has Bond but that still has few months to go. 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Big question is would all the chains release BW and at what terms. I know cinemark skipped Raya because they were not ok with Disney's terms. Also I hope Disney would release some kind of data on how much money they are making with PA. 

 

Big question is what would Universal do with Fast 9. Would they follow Disney and release it on Peacock or sell the movie to highest bidder(Netflix or Amazon would pay big money). MGM has Bond but that still has few months to go. 

Deadline actually just published an article about how theaters might end up finding themselves in a position where they will be forced to show this (and Cruella, for that matter) without an option to boycott the titles that ends well for them.

Quote

 

While Cinemark, Harkins and Canada’s Cineplex among other exhibitors refused to play Raya and the Last Dragon over Disney’s refusal to budge on rental terms, many sources tell us that will be a harder line to hold this time around on Black Widow and Cruella. Theatre owners are between a rock and a hard place; the risk of not playing ball with Disney could impact their terms for the worse in the long run.

 

The only way that Disney’s plans would be greatly curtailed is if AMC, Regal and Cinemark together decided not to play Black Widow and Cruella. However, it’s expected that AMC would go along with Disney’s plan. Unlike AMC and Cinemark’s deal with Universal, they’re getting some cut of those titles’ PVOD revenue as they segue from the theatrical marketplace. Disney, as far as we know, isn’t sharing its Disney+ revenue pie. Disney’s reported terms with exhibition for Raya were a two-week minimum play with a scale that starts at a 50% rental if the film grosses ultimately between $0 and $37.5M, and 51% if the domestic gross finals between $37.5M-$50M.

 

Disney’s Day-And-Date ‘Black Widow’ & ‘Cruella’ Decision Sends Shockwaves – Deadline

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Deadline actually just published an article about how theaters might end up finding themselves in a position where they will be forced to show this (and Cruella, for that matter) without an option to boycott the titles that ends well for them.

Disney’s Day-And-Date ‘Black Widow’ & ‘Cruella’ Decision Sends Shockwaves – Deadline

Quote

“It’s kind of mindboggling what Disney executives are up to, and it makes you wonder whether anyone who knows anything about the movie business is calling the shots over there,” one big exhibitor tells Deadline. “It’s all reminiscent of the Rich Ross era.”

As a box office tracker, ever since Iger stepped down, Disney has taken some really really stupid decision. They have done things which don't feel like Iger would do but something WB does more often.

[BK007]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

To be fair, the main issue everyone had with the WB/HBO Max thing is that they didn't tell any of their talent beforehand. These announcements seem a lot more prepared (and one assumes the people involved in the movies were really well compensated).

WB might have fucked their relationships with their content creators, but it was a consumer-centric move if ever there was one. Yeah, you could say validly that they just wanted HBO Max subs mandated by AT&T and even that it was a test run for what they would do post-pandemic but it was undeniably pro-consumer. 

 

All the backtracking and deals struck just hurt them for their idiotic planning but as a consumer with no covid end in sight, it was a superb annoucement.

 

Disney OTOH have not only moved releases entirely to streaming multiple times, but then also tried the day & date like WB but slapped an extra $30 to watch it. Consumer-friendly? All their moves are figuring out how to make it work best for them. All the other studios have struck deals, Disney DGAF. If they could find a way to skip theatres entirely, they would. 

 

The Disney buyout of Fox should never have been allowed. Welcome to modern America.

[BK007]

5 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

It's calculated for the average family, it's technically a fair deal for a family of 4, and even advantageous for a family of 5 & more.

Single people are left out but Disney bets those who can't afford it will go to theaters instead.

 

 

That's well said, too many people here fail to take different points of views and focus on their own, immediate bubble. And you're right for Premere Access, it seems to be doing better than people predicted here and definitely satisfying enough for Disney a they did it just 18 days following Raya's release. Disney's own words are clear about Raya and Premier Access:

 

 

"Following the successful release of “Raya and The Last Dragon,”

 

 

They are hardly going to admit it wasn't successful. Use some critical thinking please.

 

The only way to stand by its success is to release the numbers. Mulan still hasn't been released. 

[expensiveho]

8 minutes ago, BK007 said:

They are hardly going to admit it wasn't successful. Use some critical thinking please.

 

The only way to stand by its success is to release the numbers. Mulan still hasn't been released. 

They wouldn't keep doing it if it was a total disaster.  

 

Had they felt like theater revenue was already a lost cause for BW and premier access had been a disaster (for Mulan and Raya), they would've gone with a standard Disney+ release that would've reached a bigger audience (and more likely to get new subscribers) as they did with Soul. 

 

They must be seeing something that we aren't but Netflix ushered an era of not having to release any kind of number except for the occasional PR release with vague meaningless numbers. 

[grey ghost]

How is this strategy by Disney dumb?

 

They provide time for the vaccines to take effect then get a ton of sales/marketing data from the simultaneous theater and VOD release.

 

You want them to put all their eggs in one basket like Tenet? Lmao, even WB learned their lesson from that "strategy".

[The GOAT]

11 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

How is this strategy by Disney dumb?

 

They provide time for the vaccines to take effect then get a ton of sales/marketing data from the simultaneous theater and VOD release.

 

You want them to put all their eggs in one basket like Tenet? Lmao, even WB learned their lesson from that "strategy".

I don't have to pay $30 on top of having to pay a monthly subscription fee to watch "Godzilla vs Kong".

[grey ghost]

16 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

I don't have to pay $30 on top of having to pay a monthly subscription fee to watch "Godzilla vs Kong".

Well they're not releasing it exclusively in theaters, are they?

[Madhuvan]

Really sad to see MCU going down this path. MCU movies use to feel like events guess that's not it anymore. Greed has taken over a good franchise. 

This would have been event if released exclusively on theatres. Legs would have been great/good also.

[Macleod]

1 hour ago, Madhuvan said:

Really sad to see MCU going down this path. MCU movies use to feel like events guess that's not it anymore. Greed has taken over a good franchise. 

This would have been event if released exclusively on theatres. Legs would have been great/good also.

I'd argue that the "Event" problem is partially with the movie, itself.  Black Widow wasn't really needed, at least not right now.  And if it was made at all, it should have been made 5-10 years ago, ideally spun-off from Iron Man 2.  As for "legs"...who knows?  It all would have come down to how audiences received and talked about the movie.  

 

Disney/Marvel's squeezing out of their brand will indeed eventually produce a few flops both creatively and financially.  And the more they saturate a year-long broadcast of new TV shows, the less their features will feel like "events."  But this year's titles will all be given "a pass" because of the global situation.   

Edited March 24, 2021 by Macleod

[imbruglia]

some of y'all sound very naive and personal.

we're in 2021. releases on streaming can be huge event, even more than theater releases. lol

 

Also Raya doesn't need massive PA numbers, they only need to do better than what it would get with theater release.

and the bar is extremely low. films won't do huge boxoffice number miracly in July. y'all gotta accept this.

all of big films still will struggle to get Tenet's number. this is new reality.

 

 

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, imbruglia said:

all of big films still will struggle to get Tenet's number. this is new reality

If all goes well, GvK will cross TENET in first week. If not 2nd weekend surely.

[Gamora]

I thought there'd be a chance this would move with them still not having released anything for Shang-Chi yet, it seemed like an indicator even if things are messy now and they're not necessarily following the usual release pattern for trailers.

 

This is now updated at Hoyts as expected:

It makes sense they wouldn't do the week early release when PA is involved, although who knows if they'll do an early theatrical release in countries that don't have Disney+ yet. They haven't so far but I guess it's possible. At least we now have a set release date, since I was still iffy about May when they first moved it there tbh. I don't mind waiting until July to try to get more theaters open to give it more of a chance, I thought that was the best thing to do because why not give it a couple more months when vaccinations are ramping up.

 

Although, if Top Gun sticks around for 2nd July does that still get the IMAX exclusivity or whatever it is? It's been a long-ass time since I remember reading about it last year with this and WW84, and I'm coming up blank in searches so I can't remember what that is exactly.