Jump to content

Kalo

Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

Recommended Posts

Cost would have shot up with the delay as well. All these movies are shot using leveraged debt and interest wont be trivial. Marvel is really good at quick release from production start. This got delayed after marketing had started. I wonder if Disney will do marketing blitz as usual or it will be more subdued with hybrid model. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



30 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

Black Widow cost $200M?

Will probably be able to know before the end of the year, if that company is the Disney shell company (

ROMANOFF PRODUCTIONS UK LIMITED, the name, the moment of registration in 2017 when the first writers got hired for that projects, the moment actual big money start being spent in 2019, seem to all match really well)

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/10766358/filing-history

 

If it is that one by mid november 2019 they had spent 142 millions pound using the 2019 average exchange rate that around 181 millions, with what seem like a generous 27 millions pound tax credit going on.

 

The movie was supposed to be a may 2020 release so I imagine principal photography has originally planed was done by that date, it wrapped october 2019, ending up around that 175-225 after the rebate does make sense, with a 6 month of post production still to go (and maybe they used the extra time to do even more, but at the same time less need to pay for crush time and overtime when you have a long window).

 

Edited by Barnack
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

All these movies are shot using leveraged debt and interest wont be trivial.

Putting off the revenues away in the futures hurt your annual ROI on something has well, but for interest cost I wonder if an entity like Disney on a project like a Marvel movie is the same than for most projects.

 

Last big 11 billion of debt Disney rised was only between 1.75%-3.8% I think, their interest are probably far from a Lionsgate loan/line of credit for a non-franchise movie, but I could be wrong just speculative. the risk is quite low versus an usual movie.

Edited by Barnack
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites



4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Cost would have shot up with the delay as well. All these movies are shot using leveraged debt and interest wont be trivial. Marvel is really good at quick release from production start. This got delayed after marketing had started. I wonder if Disney will do marketing blitz as usual or it will be more subdued with hybrid model. 

The move to a hybrid release is pretty much an acknowledgement that the marketing will be restricted to "virtual" events. Starry red carpet premieres with hundreds of excited fans in attendance will still be a no-go even by the time June/July get here. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



12 hours ago, Jay Beezy said:

Black Widow cost $200M?

Yeah, it's more than I would have spent, too.  I know costs raised with the delay, but still.  This movie should have been made 5-10 years ago and for a half or even a third of the cost.  They could have upped it for the sequel, if it was a huge success.  Ah, well... 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



3 hours ago, Macleod said:

Yeah, it's more than I would have spent, too.  I know costs raised with the delay, but still.  This movie should have been made 5-10 years ago and for a half or even a third of the cost.  They could have upped it for the sequel, if it was a huge success.  Ah, well... 

No Marvel blockbuster would have a 67 million dollar budget lol. TWS had 170 million in 2014. 200 is perfectly reasonable for BW. 

Edited by Menor
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Menor said:

No Marvel blockbuster would have a 67 million dollar budget lol. TWS had 170 million in 2014. 200 is perfectly reasonable for BW. 

For you, perhaps, not for me, in terms of the industry.  We are at the point where $200 million is "average" for a tentpole.  Eventually that model will implode, even for Marvel/Disney.  And one could say that it might have already due to the COVID crisis, they just aren't talking about it...yet.  The acceleration towards streaming is a good backup in the event traditional box office receipts don't come back the way we're used to.  We will likely see budgets curbed a bit over the next couple of years due to this couple of year's COVID issues and lack of profits.  

 

I wouldn't have spent this much on a Black Widow film now or then, that's all I'm saying.  And now current circumstances dictate that it's going to be a money-loser, regardless.  

 

 

Edited by Macleod
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites



30 minutes ago, Macleod said:

For you, perhaps, not for me, in terms of the industry.  We are at the point where $200 million is "average" for a tentpole.  Eventually that model will implode, even for Marvel/Disney.  And one could say that it might have already due to the COVID crisis, they just aren't talking about it...yet.  The acceleration towards streaming is a good backup in the event traditional box office receipts don't come back the way we're used to.  We will likely see budgets curbed a bit over the next couple of years due to this couple of year's COVID issues and lack of profits.  

 

I wouldn't have spent this much on a Black Widow film now or then, that's all I'm saying.  And now current circumstances dictate that it's going to be a money-loser, regardless.  

 

 

Regardless of what effect COVID may have on budgets going forward, nobody knew about COVID while the film was being made. So that is not relevant. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



1 hour ago, Macleod said:

For you, perhaps, not for me, in terms of the industry.  We are at the point where $200 million is "average" for a tentpole.  Eventually that model will implode, even for Marvel/Disney.  And one could say that it might have already due to the COVID crisis, they just aren't talking about it...yet.  The acceleration towards streaming is a good backup in the event traditional box office receipts don't come back the way we're used to.  We will likely see budgets curbed a bit over the next couple of years due to this couple of year's COVID issues and lack of profits.  

 

I wouldn't have spent this much on a Black Widow film now or then, that's all I'm saying.  And now current circumstances dictate that it's going to be a money-loser, regardless.  

 

 

Netflix will continue to increase the amount. Grey man is 200+ (mind you the target market is way smaller than say thor 3 or black widow). Disney plus is spending monstrous amounts on the marvel series.

 

Covid isn't going to ruin or destroy the movie theater business. It will change it and shrink it. However a few years from now growth especially internationally is possible

Link to comment
Share on other sites



25 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Keep in mind, this decision wasnt made lightly, especially given that Feige didn't want it.

 

As for theaters, well frankly with the Paramount laws repealed it's only a matter of time till studios (esp Netflix) start buying them.

Yeah I can see that happening but not on the scale people think. A couple in New York a couple in LA a couple in Miami etc. Apple will definitely want to buy their own theaters, not sure on Disney. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



I can see Disney and other having flagship theater (maybe near or in their parks ?) in flagship spot, but a company like Netflix or others like that getting a massive amount of them ?

 

Isn't low ROI and arguable use of money for them even if it turn really well ?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



3 hours ago, Macleod said:

For you, perhaps, not for me, in terms of the industry.  We are at the point where $200 million is "average" for a tentpole.  Eventually that model will implode, even for Marvel/Disney.  And one could say that it might have already due to the COVID crisis, they just aren't talking about it...yet.  The acceleration towards streaming is a good backup in the event traditional box office receipts don't come back the way we're used to.  We will likely see budgets curbed a bit over the next couple of years due to this couple of year's COVID issues and lack of profits.  

 

I wouldn't have spent this much on a Black Widow film now or then, that's all I'm saying.  And now current circumstances dictate that it's going to be a money-loser, regardless.  

 

 

I don't see why $200 million is such a crazy budget for this kind of movie. Its two closest equivalents, MI:Fallout and No Time To Die, had budgets of $178 million and $250 million respectively. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites



11 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Keep in mind, this decision wasnt made lightly, especially given that Feige didn't want it.

 

As for theaters, well frankly with the Paramount laws repealed it's only a matter of time till studios (esp Netflix) start buying them.

 

If the content producers wanted to buy theaters they had a year to do so and the closest we got was a rumor Amazon was kicking the tyres of AMC last June.  A netflix might buy a location here and there for Oscar and marketing reasons but something even more radical than COVID would need to happen.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites







15 hours ago, TerwillikerInst said:

I don't see why $200 million is such a crazy budget for this kind of movie. Its two closest equivalents, MI:Fallout and No Time To Die, had budgets of $178 million and $250 million respectively. 

What do you mean by "closest equivalent"?  By "spy" theme/genre?  Serious question.  And this is yet another reason why Cruise remains a model for the industry -- if he's able to deliver what he has with those M:I films at a significant/percentage price point less than certain other blockbusters -- more reason why Paramount was smart to reverse Summer Redstone's "attitude" a few years back and remain in business with him.  James Bond, well... essentially independently produced and one of the longest-running "continuous" film series of all time, barring perhaps Godzilla.  But I'd argue that the Bond movies are too expensive now, too...eventually one will flop again (not just because of COVID, but creatively and at the box office).  

 

3 hours ago, grey ghost said:

Don't forget to add new Disney+ subs when calculating BW's ROI.

Sure.  But they wouldn't be making this decision at all (especially for July) unless they were seriously unsure of U.S. and global theatrical potential.  And I don't blame them -- I was 99% sure they were going this direction.  

 

Just saying... I would have found a way to make Black Widow for $150 mil. or less.  But I digress...

 

Anyway, it's all a fix...  😂  The "film business" makes a lot of its initial money through buying/selling properties, distribution deals, investment trade, tax shelters.  Box Office is just gravy...  Jolie's Tomb Raider was technically "in profit" before they even shot a role of film... but most of us are not really here to talk about that, I know...   

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.