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Black Widow | July 9 2021 | Theaters and Disney+ premium same day

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It's more likely someone buys MGM for 5 bill than shell out 600 mil for one year of No Time To Die.

 

Delays at this point would just exacerbate the ready packed crowding in the schedule. They aren't going to do another big leap, so PVOD I'd the best chance.

Edited by SpiderByte
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They lost money with Soul, so I’d imagine they’re waiting to see how other films do before deciding whether to delay or just put it on Disney and take the loss. 

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On 1/11/2021 at 7:15 PM, WittyUsername said:

To be frank, of all the currently scheduled MCU movies, this seems like the one where a Disney+ premiere would feel most appropriate. 

Then I wouldn't be able to see it, which is a bummer.

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16 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

no Disney+ for AndyK?

There's only so many streaming services you can pay for before it all starts costing an arm and a leg.

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13 minutes ago, AndyK said:

There's only so many streaming services you can pay for before it all starts costing an arm and a leg.

We ‘only’ have Netflix and since it started here last year Disney+ (we got it for 1 year, pre-release = was on offer), so for me its oK for now, son mostly used it (and one poor family friend), I might use it for later WandaVision episodes and further series. I am hoping for movies/series interesting to me when Star gets added this year - I think I never watch movies for 6y and older, mine start with 12/13y +, but a lot of the movies I watch are for what is here for 16y and older or 18y.... = not at Disney+ (yet, see Star)

I watch at Netflix exactly one TV-Series, son watches 3 (1 old, 2 actual). I do like architectural series, but the ones at Netflix are more about the extremes, I prefer the simple ones.

= do not watch TV neither since many years, only on discs or digital = no advertising...

I think its still oK cost-wise, but do not plan to add to that (a few series I bought whilst on offer), in the end I might buy less on disk, then it might be oK, the sum per year is what I am looking out for. And no advertising...

 

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3 hours ago, AndyK said:

There's only so many streaming services you can pay for before it all starts costing an arm and a leg.

That's why you buy 1 month a year...and cancel...

 

Or swap from service to service as it fits you...

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Well unless they want to delay Hawkeye (which Florence Pugh is also cast in) it's definitely coming out this year. While Marvel does have Loki coming in May as well I think they'll want a regular flow of stuff if only so they dont have to keep sitting on finished blockbusters. (Especially since now, delays to Marvel won't just affect Marvels slate, but Disney's whole 2021 schedule).

 

They have the trigger. Now we just wait to see if Raya does well enough that Disney wants to pull it.

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4 hours ago, AndyK said:

There's only so many streaming services you can pay for before it all starts costing an arm and a leg.

Sure, but one month of Disney+ should be a fair bit cheaper than a cinema ticket.

 

(Assuming you wait until it's generally available and not as a premium movie.)

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14 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Still looking good for a pure theatrical debut. Realistically might not be 100M (though I’m still IN) but probably 70M+.

Not in the US it doesn't. April was the optimistic timeline, and that didn't account for the and rollout and people flat out not taking the vaccine.

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13 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Not in the US it doesn't. April was the optimistic timeline, and that didn't account for the and rollout and people flat out not taking the vaccine.

Yes, in the US it does. Just wait if you must, but 4 months from now it’s going to be like night and day.

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46 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Still looking good for a pure theatrical debut. Realistically might not be 100M (though I’m still IN) but probably 70M+.

I think if I gets worse or stays the same come May in the US, $50M is best case scenario.

Edited by YourMother the Edgelord
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45 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Yes, in the US it does. Just wait if you must, but 4 months from now it’s going to be like night and day.

Better than now isn't even close to good enough for a theatrical exclusive wide release. Frankly with how bad it is it would have been safer if they released it *last* year

Edited by SpiderByte
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28 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I think if I gets worse or stays the same come May in the US, $50M is best case scenario.

If it gets worse or stays the same I think we’d be looking at 25M maybe, if they tried pure theatrical? But it’s not going to be worse or the same. The past month will be basically the worst month of the entire epidemic in the US (in terms of infections, deaths lag so the worst month will be like Feb).    
 

Pessimistically May will be medium-better than right now, in which case I think this will get delayed or hybrid PA. Optimistically we’ll be at like 150 daily deaths by the time this comes out. Right now I’m leaning much closer to the optimistic view, but there is a lot of uncertainty.

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5 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Better than now isn't even close to good enough for a theatrical exclusive wide release. Frankly with how bad it is it would have been safer if they released it *last* year

10% better than now isn’t good enough for a theatrical exclusive. How about 95% better?    
 

May 2021 will be waaaaaay better in terms of theater restrictions and audience interest than May 2020 would have been, trying to release it then would have been a PR disaster and total flop.

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Even if they only did the private shows like they did for ww84 and the bigger markets opened I think this could do 40-50m, that all hinges on things improving obviously, but I think we’ll see a dual release strategy with theatrical/premium access. 

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