Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

[lorddemaxus]

50 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If this can get 10mn more subs in USA and LATAM, and $200mn in East Asia I will be more happy.

It's unlikely one movie is going to drive 10 mil more subs in two regions lol, espescially when the US already has a huge sub base at this point. Shows like Loki or TWSAF are more likely to cause growth like that.

Edited January 21, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[lorddemaxus]

1 billion is out of reach with a May theatrical release date (considering that that's how much it would've normally grossed) but it should still end up being profitable. I see it doing 600-800 mil WW with its current release date.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

It's unlikely one movie is going to drive 10 mil more subs in two countries lol, espescially when the US already has a huge sub base at this point. Shows like Loki or TWSAF are more likely to cause growth like that.

LATAM and US aren't 2 countries. 🙄

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

LATAM and US aren't 2 countries. 🙄

*Two territories/regions/markets. You get what I mean.

Edited January 21, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Legion Again]

33 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

1 billion is out of reach with a May theatrical release date (considering that that's how much it would've normally grossed) but it should still end up being profitable. I see it doing 600-800 mil WW with its current release date.

1 billion is very much on the bullish end, I would go for maybe 800 if there were high stakes. But it won’t necessarily do less than it would have normally. Covid will obviously be a negative factor to some degree but pent-up demand and lack of competition may be positive factors (especially if other studios vacate April/May but Disney holds firm). If covid is still imposing like a 40% drag then it will definitely end up net down, but if it’s like a 20% drag at that point, less clear.

Edited January 21, 2021 by WandaLegion

[SnokesLegs]

I’m dubious that this would have made a billion even before the pandemic to be honest. I know there’s the whole “it’s Marvel” angle, but there never seemed to be that much hype for BW. The trailers made it look like a standard relatively generic CBM with nothing particularly special about it, and the fact that it’s a prequel means that people probably see it as less of a priority than if it were the true next story in the MCU. I’d have been thinking Thor Ragnarok numbers around $800-900 million WW prior to COVID, now though, I’m thinking $500-600 million, and that’s me being optimistic. 
 

People aren’t just going to rush back to cinemas, it’ll be a gradual thing and it obviously depends on the vaccine situation. No way do we get anywhere near a billion for anything in May, there’s a reason why the Bond producers are allegedly delaying NTTD all the way into November/December, they know a billion is dead for most of this year.

Edited January 21, 2021 by SnokesLegs

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

*Two territories/regions/markets. You get what I mean.

IIRC D+ launch subs in LATAM was very low. They were sidelined due to massive increase in India due to IPL.

 

So there is scope for growth, unless they simply pirate Widow.

[lorddemaxus]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

IIRC D+ launch subs in LATAM was very low. They were sidelined due to massive increase in India due to IPL.

 

So there is scope for growth, unless they simply pirate Widow.

Wandavision and TFAWS will take care of that. Don't think one movie will cause 10 mil in growth even when sub count is low, unless the movie's like an Avengers movie or something. 

[WittyUsername]

Apparently there’s now talks about this getting delayed again. I really don’t understand why Disney can’t just swallow their pride and put this on Disney+. Yes, it’s Marvel, but I think they’ll manage just fine without giving this particular film an exclusive theatrical release. They already did that with a Pixar movie. 

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Apparently there’s now talks about this getting delayed again. I really don’t understand why Disney can’t just swallow their pride and put this on Disney+. Yes, it’s Marvel, but I think they’ll manage just fine without giving this particular film an exclusive theatrical release. They already did that with a Pixar movie. 

I don't think Disney has "swallow their pride" issue, they actually wanna put it there, just waiting for right time to announce.

[Legion Again]

They won’t have to swallow their pride with a hybrid release or delay. They’re just waiting to confirm that it works to keep plans as is.

Edited January 21, 2021 by WandaLegion

[Legion Again]

If F9 moves I wouldn’t be surprised to see this Move to May 14/21/28 though, just to be safe.

[SpiderByte]

Before Soul was announced, there's was a slate of delays that happened to not include Soul. If something similar happens to Black Widow, that will be a big clue as to their plans.

[terrestrial]

28 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

can’t just swallow their pride and put this on Disney+

it’s called avoiding precedence 

 

Important also for future negotiations with eg cinema owners, but also merchandise companies and more. To be reliable even under extreme circumstances 

Might get them a higher % of the money made by tickets on the middle long run

[XXR vs XXR]

No more delays! Hybrid release and move forward FFS.🤬

[WittyUsername]

46 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

it’s called avoiding precedence 

 

Important also for future negotiations with eg cinema owners, but also merchandise companies and more. To be reliable even under extreme circumstances 

Might get them a higher % of the money made by tickets on the middle long run

They can just do a hybrid release. I don’t see how there’s any significant benefit in continuously delaying these films. Not only does it cost them money every time they delay their films, but they’re just holding up the rest of the MCU lineup. 

[terrestrial]

Just now, WittyUsername said:

....., but they’re just holding up the rest of the MCU lineup. 

 

That will only be a small or big problem if eg series spoiler details of movies better not spoiled before relase, or?

[Legion Again]

If they decide to delay BW, it’s very easy to do without disturbing the dates of any series or of any movie from Eternals forward. It would just go to late May or June of July or something, and then Shang-Chi has space in Aug/Sep.

[XXR vs XXR]

27 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

If they decide to delay BW, it’s very easy to do without disturbing the dates of any series or of any movie from Eternals forward. It would just go to late May or June of July or something, and then Shang-Chi has space in Aug/Sep.

 

This is the only acceptable solution if they don't do a hybrid release on the current dates. 

Move Black Widow to July 9th, move Shang-Chi to September 3rd. Everything else stays the same. 

[Cookson]

They really need to just do the duel/hybrid release. Give the option to go to the theater or watch it on Disney +. I mean, they could always charge the viewer like they did with Mulan to watch it on Disney +.