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Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

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Comparing anything post covid to Endgame is pretty unfair. It'd even be generally unfair under normal circumstances.

 

With Sony having made their delays, it's only a matter of time till Disney does too. I don't think we'll have any actual announcements of stuff going to Disney+ till the next earnings call in early February but I definitely think the delays will be announced by then, which will give us a clear image of what's going day and date and what isn't.

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9 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Varietys VIP thing reportedly said they may be looking at Disney+. It's behind a 400 dollar paywall so I don't know if there's any details beyond that.

https://variety.com/vip/skittish-studios-sidestep-streaming-option-in-latest-round-of-rescheduling-1234891722/

But “Ron’s Gone Wrong,” the next film on the Disney slate, was moved from April to October, making Marvel’s “Black Widow” the follow-up to “Raya” in the first week of May.

Far more is riding on “Black Widow” than “Ron,” the latter of which is an animated carry-over from 20th Century’s slate back when Fox was still in the film business. Moving “Ron” last week could mean “Black Widow” does have a shot at being the next film to get the Disney+ treatment alongside a diminished theatrical release – a truly sobering outcome for the theatrical market, given how pivotal the Marvel brand has become for the box office’s health.”

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2 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

The article is literally complete speculative. They will wait until Raya to decide anything... at which point it will be clear that pure theatrical is the way to go.

 

That's what Tenet said last year...and it did totally work overseas...May release will likely have similar viral numbers to Tenet's August release or about 40K daily cases DOM and 250K-275K daily cases WW...

 

If Disney's okay with Tenet numbers, they can get them on BW's release...but I don't think $363M WW is their full theatrical BO target...heck, with China's love of Marvel, maybe they could even flaunt with $400M or more...

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5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

That's what Tenet said last year...and it did totally work overseas...May release will likely have similar viral numbers to Tenet's August release or about 40K daily cases DOM and 250K-275K daily cases WW...

 

If Disney's okay with Tenet numbers, they can get them on BW's release...but I don't think $363M WW is their full theatrical BO target...heck, with China's love of Marvel, maybe they could even flaunt with $400M or more...

The situation is nothing like Tenet though. Numbers will likely be much better than August, and more importantly with a very different mood given levels of vaccines and deaths. BW can go pure theatrical on May 7 and earn 250+ DOM/750+ WW

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6 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

The situation is nothing like Tenet though. Numbers will likely be much better than August, and more importantly with a very different mood given levels of vaccines and deaths. BW can go pure theatrical on May 7 and earn 250+ DOM/750+ WW

About 800 daily deaths DOM and 4000ish WW...you're right - DOM may be a little better, WW may be a little worse...

 

I'd take the under for that DOM number bet for a May 7 release...and even if it hits, that would be a woeful number for what Disney expected for BW...and one they might be willing to pass up for D+ subs and continued subscriber happiness DOM...

 

And the other big DOM change from Tenet to BW - all the folks who just signed up for annual streaming from D+ and HBO Max this Xmas...

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9 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Is this your prediction? I’d take more like 10% of that.

Nope, that was August status - I think DOM deaths will be better, but WW w/o DOM deaths (about 3200) will be worse...

 

But, as I've said, all of this will be moot, b/c Disney will go day and date theatrical/PVOD or they will move the movie...I think the former, but then again, they seem bound and determined to never set the precedent of Marvel movies as anything but full theatrical, so it may be the latter...

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