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Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

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6 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

You are correct yes, my mistake. But we had heard a while back they'd be making a decision about Widow around now, and if this China release is real then theyve decided on what to do. Now we just wait till they announce the details.

This seems like an indication that they’ve firmed up a date choice (though a reshuffle could still be possible if F9 moves soon) but not necessarily a format choice yet. They can reboot marketing while still holding off a little further— for instance, critical info on Los Angeles and by extension Regal is expected in the next couple weeks.

Edited by WandaLegion
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Look anything is possible but Disney has traditionally released the Marvel May films a week early OS (yay me). For spoiler reasons they didn't do that with Infinity War and Endgame.  

 

They can do other things like shortening the theatrical window to say 4 weeks before moving to a hybrid Disney+ release. 

 

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Maybe it won't be a hybrid release after all...

 

Also: Chapeks thoughts on shortened theatrical runs:

“Particularly since now they’ve had the luxury of an entire year of getting titles at home pretty much when they want them. So I’m not sure there’s going back, but we certainly don’t want to do anything like cut the legs off a theatrical exhibition run.”

 

https://variety.com/2021/tv/news/disney-bob-chapek-disney-plus-subscribers-raya-1234918860/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Edited by SpiderByte
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18 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

With Fast and Furious moving to June, now Black Widow would basically have the whole month to itself, aside from Cruella, if it keeps it's date. 

 

It's got Peter Rabbit, the opener of kid summer (whatever that may be this year), in its 2nd week...

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Some tension here now between keeping the Apr 29-30 dates in mostly recovered Asian markets for the May Day holiday benefit vs moving to later May, reshuffling Cruella and/or Free Guy, and having somewhat better conditions in Europe, Latin America, and DOM. 

Edited by WandaLegion
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3 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Ehh, the first opened to 25 mil. Pre-Covid. Probably not much to worry about.

 

Considering the whole DOM Top 10 market hasn't gotten above $20M yet since Xmas (and that was the only weekend in the Covid era to break $20M except the fake 9 day Tenet opening Labor Day weekend)...and looks to again not have the huge numbers this weekend folks were hoping for...PR2 could be all the competition the market can handle...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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9 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

With Fast and Furious moving to June, now Black Widow would basically have the whole month to itself, aside from Cruella, if it keeps it's date. 

And now a Quiet Place 2 takes the Memorial Day spot...I'm thinking semi-write-off and semi-money-maker and semi-launch-Paramount-+-for summer viewers strategy...

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8 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

And now a Quiet Place 2 takes the Memorial Day spot...I'm thinking semi-write-off and semi-money-maker and semi-launch-Paramount-+-for summer viewers strategy...

Ehh I think Cruella would be more likely to cut into Widow than Quiet Place either way. Chapeks said he's hestitant to cut off the legs of a film. But again, well likely learn in a few days which way they're going on this.

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Tomorrow is the shareholders meeting, so get your bets in on what/if the news about this will be. Personally to me it's sounding like Disney is very confident they can make May 7th work but it's still unclear how they plan it to. Raya is (seemingly) underperforming compared to it's immense critical success on Premiere Access and in theaters, but a much higher profile project like Black Widow would likely encounter fewer obstacles in that area.

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DOM and Asia will be good to go for May, Latin America might still be struggling in July. The decisive factor is how they feel comfortable handling Europe, which unfortunately is now looking like it won’t really spin back up until June/July.  
 

Although it would kill my club, and miss May Day holidays, I think the wisest move at this point is to June, with the possibility of slightly delayed release in European countries as need be. Probably the June 11 spot Peter Rabbit just vacated, gets you Dragon Boat Festival in China. Then Luca to the July 2 spot Minions just vacated and Shang-Chi to Aug (Aug 6 imo and just bully TSS somewhere else, but there are more diplomatic options later in the month).

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8 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

DOM and Asia will be good to go for May, Latin America might still be struggling in July. The decisive factor is how they feel comfortable handling Europe, which unfortunately is now looking like it won’t really spin back up until June/July.  
 

Although it would kill my club, and miss May Day holidays, I think the wisest move at this point is to June, with the possibility of slightly delayed release in European countries as need be. Probably the June 11 spot Peter Rabbit just vacated, gets you Dragon Boat Festival in China. Then Luca to the July 2 spot Minions just vacated and Shang-Chi to Aug (Aug 6 imo and just bully TSS somewhere else, but there are more diplomatic options later in the month).

Agree. Move it to June/July. Especially if you want numbers from europe

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I'm predicting tomorrow disney will announce a simultaneous hybrid release for black widow (may 7th in theaters and premiere access) and the rest of 2021 movie release slate will be following suit - simultaneous hybrid release (in theaters and premiere access) while keeping thier projected dates.

 

I mean disney cannot force people who are uncomfortable go to the movie theaters. I for one am not. I think it's the right buisness decision to this for the rest 2021. Go for it Disney. 

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Sending any more movies than absolutely necessary to PA would be insanity after Raya. People (domestically) will be comfortable going back by May and this entire “Disney ‘forcing’ people back to theaters” talking point will disappear.

Edited by WandaLegion
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16 minutes ago, Seth Irskens said:

I'm predicting tomorrow disney will announce a simultaneous hybrid release for black widow (may 7th in theaters and premiere access) and the rest of 2021 movie release slate will be following suit - simultaneous hybrid release (in theaters and premiere access) while keeping thier projected dates.

 

I mean disney cannot force people who are uncomfortable go to the movie theaters. I for one am not. I think it's the right buisness decision to this for the rest 2021. Go for it Disney. 

No

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27 minutes ago, Seth Irskens said:

I'm predicting tomorrow disney will announce a simultaneous hybrid release for black widow (may 7th in theaters and premiere access) and the rest of 2021 movie release slate will be following suit - simultaneous hybrid release (in theaters and premiere access) while keeping thier projected dates.

 

I mean disney cannot force people who are uncomfortable go to the movie theaters. I for one am not. I think it's the right buisness decision to this for the rest 2021. Go for it Disney. 

 

A hybrid release for Black Widow is a 5% possibility. The rest of 2021 is absolutely not happening. 

Edited by VenomXXR
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